Anyway, I’m not going to say that a lot of your individual comments are wrong but I can’t look at overall conference strength (particularly as judged by the RPI) and say the number of team from each conference should correspond to strength in that way. As I’m sure Lunardi would respond to many of your points, teams earn bids, not conferences. At the same time, especially after this weekend but I can’t blame Lunardi for this, some of your points are right on. Having Missouri in over Baylor was pretty ridiculous. You mention that KState and Oklahoma deserve consideration and in fairness Lunardi DID consider them as they were both in his last 8 out. I’m not sold on Nebraska yet either, although they do have two reasonable losses and one OK win over Oregon in what was essentially a home game (although I wasn’t totally convinced then and I’m completely not totally convinced now that the Oregon win was a great win, especially as great as Nebraska fans make it out to be).
Some of your other points are right on, particularly ones like your confusion over the inclusion of a pretty bad Florida team. Well, Lunardi kind of addressed this in his 12/17 chat. Here’s the first question and answer.
Kelly (Des Moines, IA): Is your 'projection' based upon where you see the teams come March or where they'd be seeded if selection was today?
Joe Lunardi: All projections are "as if the season ended today."
So, Lunardi is taking it as if the season ended today. Another astute reader noticed the ridiculousness of the inclusion of Florida.
Rokk (Andrews Settlement, PA): Joe, you need to quickly find 2 replacement teams for Florida & Notre Dame. 1) Florida has played 1 legitament team so far and lost @ HOME. 2) Notre Dame is 1-2 versus equal competition. ALL other WINS by both teams are at home against MUNCHCAKES. You said many times, its WHAT you have DONE SO FAR. So far both teams have DONE almost NOTHING! Rokk
Joe Lunardi: This is the tricky part of the early brackets, Rokk. If we went strictly on the basis of quality wins to this point, a whole bunch of ranked teams would also be absent from the projection. But that's not realistic and we have to adjust accordingly. What are Georgetown's NCAA credentials thus far? Florida and Notre Dame are in because of how they've played more than who they've beaten, as much as I'd rather not lean on such criteria (and won't later on).
So, anyway, it seems like Lunardi kind of contradicts himself. He makes the projections as if the season ended today while at the same time giving extra credit to teams that he thinks are likely to have a good resume at the end of the year. (Now, whether Lunardi is crazy for thinking Florida will end up with a good resume at the end of the year is another question altogether.) I guess I kind of feel like I defended Lunardi. That said, I think it’s time for me to take a shower.
