ACC:
Locks – UNC, Duke
Still both no doubters.
Should be in – Clemson
My assumption that Clemson would fade away is starting to fade away. I’m more confident that they’ll be the third best-seeded team in the conference. By the way, and this will come as a surprise to no one outside of Durham, it’s tough to win at Cameron when you’re facing more than just a good Blue Devil team. I’ll leave that at that.
Work left to do – Boston College, Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, NC State, Virginia
I was ready to say Boston College was the fourth best team in the conference and that’s probably still true but they were beaten impressively at a not great Virginia team. It’s probably still true for BC but I’m less confident and none of these teams have separated. The only teams I don’t have listed here are Georgia Tech (due to a poor out overall record) and Virginia Tech (due to just not being very good). Analyzing these teams further at this point is a pretty pointless exercise; it’s too early. However, at this point only 3 teams are looking solid in this conference and for the purposes of increasing number of bids separation would be advisable.
Big East:
Locks – Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown
Pittsburgh and Georgetown will be getting in (although I think Georgetown is in danger of a pretty poor seed based on their quality of play). Marquette I’ll leave here but that’s under the assumption that they beat DePaul and South Florida at home.
Should be in – West Virginia
West Virginia barely stayed on this level after almost losing at home to Marshall.
Work left to do – Connecticut, Louisville, Providence, Villanova, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Seton Hall
Connecticut is almost on the “should be in” line but they still lack the quality wins. I think Louisville will be OK too as they’re starting to play better as they get their team back. Providence had a stunning home loss to Seton Hall. The rest of the teams have not separated themselves much, but Seton Hall joins this list (likely temporarily) after winning at Providence.
Big 10:
Locks – Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana
I can’t make an argument against any of these teams. It would take some bad losses (and they’ll have opportunities in the Big 10) to get off this line.
Should be in – Ohio State
Ohio State will likely be fine as long as they beat most of the poor teams in the conference.
Work left to do – Purdue
Purdue has a poor RPI (and a stunning loss to Wofford at home) but they’re sporting a good conference record and they play enough poor teams in the Big 10 that I think they’ll end up with a gaudy record. Minnesota got kicked off this list after losing two chances for a solid home win over Indiana and Michigan State.
Big 12:
Locks – Kansas, Texas
They will both be fine.
Should be in – Baylor
With Baylor’s ridiculous (and ridiculously non-televised) win over Texas A&M they join the “should be in” line.
Work left to do – Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Not only does Texas A&M fall off the “should be in” line but they fall behind Kansas State and Oklahoma after their last three games. I think 6 teams would be pushing it in the Big 12 so Texas Tech still has a lot of work still left to do (if they’re even still on the bubble).
Pac 10:
Locks – UCLA, Washington State
Despite UCLA’s loss to USC they could still end up with a one seed. Washington State was looking at a high seed, and they still are, despite the loss at Arizona.
Should be in – Arizona, Stanford
The main complaint against Arizona was their conference record but with back-to-back wins at Cal and then at home against Washington State there are no more legitimate complaints. They should be in. Back to back wins over the Arizona schools puts Stanford on this line too.
Work left to do – Oregon, USC, Arizona State
Oregon had a tough loss at home to UCLA and now has lost 3 straight games. Regarding USC, although one of the games on their road trip was Oregon State and that’s not a frightening trip, but when the other game so far was at UCLA starting the trip at 2-0 was great and put the Trojans from clearly off the bubble to likely in the tournament. Arizona State simply needed to avoid bad losses to stay in good shape. Losing at home to Washington is about as bad as it gets.
SEC:
Locks – Tennessee, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
Tennessee is certainly still a lock and you could argue against Mississippi and Vanderbilt staying on this line but I’m leaving them on there for now.
Should be in – no one
This is not a great conference
Work left to do – Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Florida’s record is still nice and none of their three losses are embarrassing. Their RPI is getting less horrible too. Mississippi State is in good shape in conference at 4-0 and that’s keeping them on this line despite the poor computer numbers. Arkansas is sitting on two straight bad losses and they have to be off the bubble now but their RPI of 40 is good enough to keep them in contention.
Atlantic 10:
Locks – Xavier, Dayton
Xavier beat up on Dayton and Dayton is injured right now. Provided Dayton can get healthy again and pick up some win they’ll be fine.
Should be in – no one
This isn’t fair right now to the conference as a whole but the problem is at 2-2 in the A-10 UMass and Rhode Island need to keep winning games to avoid giving the committee a reason to exclude them.
Work left to do – Massachusetts, Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Charlotte
Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and St. Joe’s should all be in if the tournament was right now. Charlotte stays on here due to 7 wins against the top 100 despite some bad losses.
Other:
Locks – Memphis, Butler, St. Mary’s
Memphis is still obviously in and it would still take a catastrophic collapse for Butler or St. Mary’s to fall out.
Should be in – Gonzaga, Drake
Gonzaga would be in right now and I’m close to putting them on the “locks” line. Drake’s wins over Illinois State and at Creighton are huge, especially considering Josh Young just came back against Creighton and still isn’t totally back.
Work left to do – South Alabama, Kent State, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Illinois State, Creighton, Cleveland State, The top 4 in the Mountain West
South Alabama is still not facing any top 100 RPI competition but if they never lose they’ll still be OK. Kent State had a big win over Akron to keep themselves in good contention for an at large bid if needed. George Mason had a hot start to the season and looked like a strong tournament team but has since lost some troubling games but they sit in pretty good shape in conference.. VCU has no quality wins but they have a one game lead in a pretty good conference. Illinois State blew a double-digit second half lead in Des Moines and then had a devastating one point loss at rival Bradley, who just so happened to get star guard Daniel Ruffin back from injury. Creighton lost one of their few opportunities for a good win by losing at home in overtime to Drake after blowing free throws down the stretch in regulation. They need quite a run. The main thing Cleveland State had going for them was their undefeated record in this Horizon. Losing in conference is OK but they should have tried that against Butler, Wright State, or Valparaiso. Wisconsin Green Bay was a bad idea. San Diego State, UNLV, BYU, and New Mexico still don’t have much to separate them right now but as the season progresses separation should occur (and must occur if the conference wants an at large). Already Utah has been separated out of contention.
2 comments:
I would love to agree with you on the Uconn being in the "should be in" category but they are just too inconsistent to get my hopes up and put them in yet. If they can carry this momentum with the wins over marquette and @ Cincy and take it to Indiana and win, then I will be on board with you. I'm sick of these moral victories against Gonzaga (should've won), Memphis (played tough) and Georgetown (the Hibbert 3, are you kidding me?) we need to stregthen our resume with a huge win @ Indiana. Go Huskies!
By the way nice site you got going here.
First of all, thanks for the kind words. I hope you continue to visit and I hope you tell your friends!
Regarding UConn, actually we did not yet say they should be in. However, with a good last week, they now are sitting in better position than a lot of the other bubble Big East teams (which is approximately half the country). We'll obviously know a on more about UConn after their next three games. I figure they'll probably lose at Indiana but then they get back to back opportunities for big wins at home against Louisville and Pittsburgh. I think you'd agree with me that this is a young team so some moral victories early in the season, although disappointing and perhaps frustrating for fans, is certainly understandable.
Post a Comment