(10) Davidson – (3) Wisconsin
Davidson is more than just a nice story as their run to this weekend included wins over two really good teams. They beat a real solid Gonzaga team and then they beat arguably the best team in the Big East. No, neither game was easy but these were tough teams they beat. Also don’t make the mistake of thinking this team is just Stephen Curry. Sure, Curry takes them to another level but they have other guys too. Jason Richards is a fantastic point guard. Andrew Lovedale has also been in double figures both games this past weekend. Well, as much as Davidson is more than just Curry they’ll likely need a big effort from their stud to get past Wisconsin. That could be tough as I assume defensive stud Michael Flowers will be charged with guarding Curry and that will be a great match-up to watch. Wisconsin was able to hold Kansas State to 0-13 shooting from three although I do think at least some of that was just Kansas State’s doing. It will also be interesting to see how Davidson handles Wisconsin in the post. Although they lost the rebounding battle to Kansas State they were able to demolish tiny Fullerton team on the glass by over 20. Although Davidson’s inside guys are not exactly Fullerton’s inside guys they’re also not exactly Wisconsin’s inside guys. Davidson was competitive on the boards with Gonzaga and Georgetown and you have to figure they’ll need to be competitive with Wisconsin as well. This should be a great game, especially if Curry shows up for both halves. Like I said, I think Davidson is more than just a nice story. They’re a really dangerous team and if they were able to beat Georgetown I really don’t see why they are not capable of beating Wisconsin. This should be a real well played, close game and one of my rules is when in doubt I pick the team with the best player on the floor. Well, if you think that is anyone other than Stephen Curry you haven’t been paying attention. I’ll take Davidson by 3.
(12) Villanova – (1) Kansas
This really does not look like a terrific match-up for Villanova. They have some real dangerous guards, obviously led by Scottie Reynolds, but Kansas can lock you down pretty well with that perimeter defense. Villanova can occasionally be prone to high turnover games and Kansas can force turnovers with their defensive pressure. The team that has the guards that Villanova has played that reminds me the most of Kansas’s guards is probably Marquette and Villanova lost by 10 behind 23 turnovers in that game. In addition, Kansas can throw big bodies in the post that Villanova likely will not have an answer for. Perhaps Reynolds will prove me wrong and take his star to a level higher than I think he is capable of but that will likely be necessary if Villanova is to pull off this upset. I just don’t see it happening. I see Kansas winning by about 15.
(3) Stanford – (2) Texas
My gut reaction is that Stanford cannot keep up with D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams and I do think that’s true but I also am not sure I see what Texas will do to handle the Lopez twins because I do not really trust Texas’s size. In fact, Texas is not a great rebounding team. If the Longhorns could not keep Austin Peay off the boards how are they going to keep Stanford off the boards? I’m not sure I know the answer to that. So, in this game I really need to decide between Stanford’s post play and Texas’s guards. Normally I’d easily jump on the Texas guards because it’s easier to get the ball in the hands of the guards but Stanford’s guards probably are capable of playing into Stanford’s strengths. Mitch Johnson really takes care of the ball (how about that 16 assist, 1 turnover performance against Marquette?) and Anthony Goods is a capable enough scorer to keep the defense honest. So, I’m actually taking Stanford, possibly against my better judgment to win by about 5 points.
(5) Michigan State – (1) Memphis
With the pressure that Memphis puts on ballhandlers it would take a pretty heroic performance by Drew Neitzel and Kalin Lucas to keep them in this game. These Spartans don’t seem as tough and talented inside as previous years so Michigan State will have to get it done with Neitzel, Lucas, and of course Raymar Morgan. Neitzel has shown the ability to take over games so that could be OK. For Memphis I could say that they need to hit their free throws but we all know that’s not going to happen. But the thing is they’ve won a lot of games this year despite not having any idea what to do from the line and I don’t think Michigan State is necessarily good enough to take advantage of that obvious problem. Memphis has been the pretty obvious answer of the first number one seed to lose but I don’t see how that happens against Michigan State. Memphis’s lack of shooting ability will probably keep this close the majority of the game but their talent should win out by 5-8 points by the end of the game.
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