A Quick and Dirty Look at Possible NCAA Tournament Upsets

I don’t have time to do much previewing of tomorrow because of midterms and the like, but I wanted to rank each seeding match-ups in order of likelihood of upset (with the first game listed being most likely of an upset). So, here we go.

1 vs 16

Memphis vs TX Arlington

Kansas vs Portland State

North Carolina vs Mount Saint Mary’s

UCLA vs Mississippi Valley State

Obviously none of these are going to happen. I listed Memphis first as the weakest of the 1 seeds and then Kansas second because Portland State really isn’t bad. I think Mississippi Valley State is the worst team in this field.

2 vs 15

Georgetown vs UMBC

Duke vs Belmont

Texas vs Austin Peay

Tennessee vs American

We are almost certainly not going to see an upset on this line either, although if Georgetown plays down to the level of competition, they fail to get Hibbert adequately involved, and UMBC shoots the ball the way they did in the first half of their conference title game it would be interesting. That’s a lot of ifs, none of which are likely to come through. I would say of the other three Duke is the weakest 2 seed and Belmont is not horrible. The other two are unlikely but I think American has a particularly bad match-up with Tennessee.

3 vs 14

Xavier vs Georgia

Wisconsin vs CSU Fullerton

Louisville vs Boise State

Stanford vs Cornell

I don’t like any of these games. Georgia is likely to fall back to Earth. Fullerton has no match inside for Wisconsin’s size. Boise State will not be able to match Louisville’s athleticism, although if their shots are falling well they could stay alive. Cornell should not be able to play with Stanford.

4 vs 13

Washington State vs Winthrop

Vanderbilt vs Siena

Pittsburgh vs Oral Roberts

Connecticut vs San Diego

I actually think any of these games could be interesting. I like Winthrop’s defense and if they get one hot player, as they did with Michael Jenkins against UNC Asheville, they could stay alive against a Washington State team that is not explosive offensively. Siena has guards that can run with Vanderbilt. In my upset scenario I have not figured out who guards Ogilvie but if those guards are on Vanderbilt could have a battle. It’s hard to forget how well Pittsburgh played last weekend but Oral Roberts plays enough defense and if Robert Jarvis goes nuts they could stay in it. San Diego just has some wins over quality teams this year. I don’t see where they get the size to compete down low however.

5 vs 12

Notre Dame vs George Mason

Michigan State vs Temple

Drake vs Western Kentucky

Clemson vs Villanova

None of these ending in an upset would surprise me. George Mason has some high major talent and that Thomas-Harangody match-up should be good. If George Mason shoots well they could compete although the Irish have some shooters as well. Temple as quietly been playing good basketball for a while now and Michigan State has been awfully inconsistent. Drake is better than Western Kentucky but that assumes Drake shoots as well as they have all year. If the lids are on the bucket from 25 feet then Drake might not have other scoring options. Clemson has been really good but Villanova has some weapons, primarily in Scottie Reynolds, that are tough to stop if they get going. Clemson is a better all around team, however, and seems to be the safest bet of the 5s to survive.

6 vs 11

Purdue vs Baylor

USC vs Kansas State

Oklahoma vs St. Joseph’s

Marquette vs Kentucky

Those Baylor guards can play and while we know Purdue will defend I’m not sure they’re ready for the quickness Baylor can bring. Kansas State is a key upset threat for the simple reason that they have the best player in this tournament. I can easily picture a scenario in which St. Joseph’s beats Oklahoma but I just don’t see it happening because of St. Joseph’s sometimes refusal to play defense and I don’t see them being as strong as Oklahoma inside. Kentucky was a nice story this year, coming back from some horrible play early, but Marquette’s guards are just way too good for them.

7 vs 10

Miami vs. St. Mary’s

Gonzaga vs Davidson

Butler vs South Alabama

West Virginia vs Arizona

At this point it’s hard to consider anything an upset and I might end up picking all 10 seeds to win. I pick St. Mary’s as the most likely one just because I think they’re better than Miami. Davidson is not as athletically gifted as Gonzaga but I think they win if they play one of their better games. I don’t think Gonzaga would have enough answers for Curry. That is a fascinating game though. I think Butler is just better than South Alabama but South Alabama really is good and it should really help them that they don’t have to leave the state (although that didn’t do a lot of good in the Sun Belt tournament). I only put Arizona last on this list because Arizona just doesn’t like to win basketball games. Frankly, they should beat West Virginia though.

8 vs 9

Indiana vs Arkansas

Mississippi State vs Oregon

UNLV vs Kent State

BYU vs Texas A&M

The opponent of Indiana automatically jumps to the top. It’s still scary though because Indiana has far better than 8 seed talent (even if they are playing far worse than 8 seed quality basketball right now). I put Oregon second only because of Oregon’s talent. I think they’re definitely a more talented team than Mississippi State although they really haven’t been better. I actually like the MWC to go 2-0 in the first round of the tournament.