So, I think this is a relatively full list of guys that have announced they will enter the NBA Draft early. I have separated them into lists of guys that I’m sure are gone and guys that I think might end up back in school. I’ll comment on all the guys that are likely staying in the draft and the rest of them at once.
Likely Staying In
Joe Alexander – Alexander has said he doesn’t he himself leaving but I tend to think he’s a first round lock so I’m guessing he’ll stay in. However, considering next year should be a weaker draft and he came on the scene relatively late it’s possible he could go earlier in 2009 so I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays his senior year at West Virginia. Obviously WVU’s season next year hinges strongly on this decision; if Alexander returns he’ll come back to a pretty talented team (with Ruoff, Butler, Mazzulla and others) that should compete well in the Big East.
Ryan Anderson – I see Anderson staying as well because I see him as a late second rounder. Again, the hope for Cal fans is that the 2009 draft should be weaker so he could go quite a bit higher then. Despite the hiring of Montgomery I’m not sure that returning to Berkeley would sound that great to Anderson.
Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger – As far as I can tell neither of these guys have signed with an agent yet but they’re both likely lottery picks (even if I’m not convinced either of them deserve it) so it would be pretty crazy for them to go back to Arizona. The ramifications for Arizona are obviously huge; anytime you might lose two lottery picks off your team early that’s gotta be tough to come back from. With Olson returning and a big-time freshman class coming in, the possible of Bayless and Budinger could make Arizona one of the top teams in the nation next year. Unfortunately for Wildcat fans it’s likely not going to happen but maybe that’s karma for Arizona fans being idiots.
Michael Beasley – Stunning! With all the press Rose has been getting for some reason Beasley is not considered the obvious number one pick. Beasley should be the obvious number one pick.
Derrick Caracter and Earl Clark – Well, I’m not sure how much of a choice Caracter has because I don’t know that he’s welcome back to Louisville but he’s not going to be a very high pick. I’m not sure I see Clark as being as good as the experts say he is but that is all the more reason for him to jump at going now while the stock is hot.
Eric Gordon – I certainly don’t blame Gordon for wanting to go. He’s still probably a top 10 pick and as good as Crean may be, Gordon went to Indiana to play for Sampson. Still, as good as a season as Gordon had, he was certainly trending downwards at the end of the year and there is a good chance he’d go higher in 2009. There is also a chance that Gordon is not as good as his potential has shown and he’d slip further. So, Gordon is definitely leaving and the future of Indiana is a mess (at least for a couple years).
Donte Greene – Greene is interesting because if you catch him for the right couple of minutes then you think he’s a top 5-8 pick. But if you watch him any other time you might not even notice him. As a result, his potential has him on the lottery bubble. That’s a shame for Syracuse because they have a ton of talent coming back and some nice talent coming in; Greene would help that a lot and with Greene it’s even possible that Syracuse could be an NCAA tournament team! (That is of course assuming Boeheim could see through his whiny tears enough to decide to coach his team.)
J.J. Hickson – Hickson is pretty good but I’m not convinced his stock will ever get much higher considering height limitations as a four. He could probably benefit from some extra time working on his post game but I’m not convinced that working on that post game would actually improve his NBA stock (as much as it would likely improve his NBA game)
DeAndre Jordan – Jordan needs to get to the NBA now. He’s likely a top 10 pick despite not having done anything except look like he might one day be exciting. If basketball ability never follows that potential then his stock could plummet. Who’s to say he’ll ever actually be worthy of a top 10 pick? As long as he’s viewed as such he needs to get there in a hurry before people realize he is still not good at basketball.
Brook and Robin Lopez – Anytime you’re likely a top 4 pick you must go so Brook obviously needs to get going to the NBA. I understand that the Lopez brothers have said that they want to go pro at the same time but I think Robin could benefit from another year in college. Robin is likely a first round pick too so it’s not a horrible decision but I wouldn’t be stunned if Robin could be a lottery pick in 2009 especially if he got some of Brook’s touches in his extra year.
O.J. Mayo – Mayo is still probably a top 5 pick and this was a pretty obvious move. He probably deserves it too.
JaVale McGee – McGee is pretty good but I’d be interested to see what he might do at Nevada if he were the number one offensive option (rather than Kemp). Considering I have no idea what would happen if that were the case it’s a great idea for McGee declare and sign with an agent. McGee is probably going to go in the mid-teens now and I have no idea what might happen to his stock were he to stay in school.
Anthony Randolph – This is another textbook case of a guy that might end up being good but it’s just too early to know. But, because of that potential people like him as a top 10 pick so he’d be an idiot not to leave school. I’d be curious to see what would happen to Randolph’s development under Trent Johnson but we’re not going to see it.
May Be Back In School
Richard Hendrix, Ronald Steele
Trent Plaisted
Marreese Speights
Robert Vaden
Terrence Williams
Alabama might be something special with Hendrix and Steele and my guess is they’ll be back because I don’t know that either of them will be first round picks. Plaisted is good but if he could have a more consistent senior season he might be a top 20 pick and right now I don’t see him in the first round. Speights might stay in because he could be a first round pick but with another year next year like he had this past year he could find himself in the lottery. Vaden’s game is just not diverse enough to warrant a first round pick so he will likely come back. Williams is also likely a second rounder so he will likely return to Louisville.
I’ll try to comment on some more early entry candidates as the news comes forward.
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