A Look at Pleasant Surprises and Disappointments

Now that most teams have mostly wrapped up the non-conference portion of their schedules we have enough data to suggest some teams have outperformed and some teams have underperformed compared to preseason expectations.

Pleasant Surprises

UNC-Asheville
It’s not that the Bulldogs have been fantastic or anything but they managed to not get embarrassed by Tennessee and North Carolina and they did beat South Carolina. This is only exciting because with their solid season and the season of Winthrop (not that Winthrop is terrible this year because they’re still OK) we might see a different decent Big South team playing this March.

The Southland Conference
This is really about Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin and their early gaudy RPIs (55 and 70 respectively). Unfortunately Sam Houston State opened up their conference season with a loss to SE Louisiana. The only way both of these teams could get into the NCAA tournament would be if they dominated the conference and 0-1 is not on the road to domination. Still, solid non-conference slates are better than the Southland is used to. Conference play will kill those RPIs.

Niagara and Marist
These two schools out of the MAAC have had successful non-conference portions of their schedule. Unfortunately the conference will drag their computer numbers down but if they beat up on everyone else perhaps they could keep their numbers good enough to be under consideration. They’ve combined to go 7-1 in the conference thus far and the only conference loss was by Marist to Niagara.

Cal State Northridge
The Matadors were picked to finish 6th in the Big West and they currently hold the conference’s best RPI at 57. In addition, they have started off the conference year with two straight road wins including a win at preseason favorite USCB.

St. Mary’s
Gonzaga will do well in the WCC for the foreseeable future but St. Mary’s has really been fantastic this year. You could argue that non of their nice wins are really all that great but they have a bunch of decent wins, no terrible losses, and an RPI of 4 looks pretty nice. It’s unfortunate that Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are the only teams in the conference above .500 so St. Mary’s may need to go undefeated in non-Gonzaga games to have a shot at an at large bid.

The Horizon League
Butler being good is no surprise but four conference mates join them in the top 100. Especially noteworthy is Valparaiso, who is sporting a 35 RPI in their first season in the Horizon League. Butler’s great non-conference performance should hold up against pretty decent competition in conference, provided they win.

Drake
I had to figure out which team to pick out of the Valley to start this discussion and I decided Drake was the most surprising. They have had the best start in conference play and it was the most unexpected. Savvy observers would have seen Illinois State’s strong start and Southern Illinois’s disappointing start coming. While watching the Missouri State-Wichita State game Tuesday on ESPN2 Doug Gottlieb was going on and on about how down the Valley is this year and at some point Hubert Davis said that this is definitely a one-bid league. First of all, Gottlieb is right in that the Valley is down. The problem is that so many people, Gottlieb included, are pointing to the coaching turnover as a reason why the Valley is down. The bigger reason the Valley is down is because they lost a lot of talent from last year. It would be nice if some of these experts would also mention that recruiting seems to be up in the conference right now and the rest of the country should take advantage of the extra bid or two now while they can. Regarding Davis’s point, it is ridiculous to already claim that this is a one bid league. With very strong in conference seasons Drake, Illinois State, Creighton, and even SIU could still be in position for an at large bid. So, regarding Davis’s comment, shockingly someone on ESPN said something stupid.

The Atlantic 10
My love of the Atlantic 10 has been stated before and it hasn’t changed. They currently have 5 teams that should be considered in decent position to get at large bids and I’m hoping the committee doesn’t feel the need to cap the conference.

Mississippi
In their loss to Tennessee last night they showed a lot. Tennessee opened up their lead in the early second half and Mississippi came back and had a four point lead before blowing it away. Their positive performance is more impressive in the SEC than Vanderbilt. The Commodores are undefeated but I’m more used to them not being bad.

Baylor
With their gaudy record their best win is still Notre Dame and while that’s not great this is Baylor. In the past we would expect Baylor to lose to nearly everybody. The Big 12 may not be as down as it has been the last couple of years but it’s still not that great. Baylor could put up a decent conference record and get into the dance.

Arizona State
In the pre-season I would have said that the Pac 10 looked like the most fearsome conference and I would have said only Arizona State and Oregon State looked bad. Fortunately for Arizona State, Oregon State has taken enough badness for both of them (and then some). Arizona State has actually been pretty good. With a 3-0 start to the conference season including wins over Oregon and Arizona they are well on their way to the NCAA tournament.

Miami, FL
Not much was expected out of Miami at the beginning of this year and they started off 3-0 against top 100 opponents. The only top 100 team they’ve played since then was Winthrop and they lost. Still, they sit in decent position for the tournament with a solid conference performance.

Disappointments

The Atlantic Sun
This isn’t really fair to do to the Atlantic Sun because it’s not like there were a lot of preseason predictions that this conference would rival the Pac 10 or something, but considering what I wrote on November 15, 2007 the fact that they are the RPIs 29th ranked conference is a bit of a letdown.

Pennsylvania
Penn was only picked to finish third in the Ivy this year which is noteworthy only because they have lost a total of 4 conference games the last three seasons. That’s a pretty remarkable run. This year’s Quakers are 5-9 and their horrid 273 RPI is only better in the conference than Harvard (277) and Princeton (309). Actually, Princeton and their 2-11 record deserves to be on this disappointment list as much as Penn. Penn’s disappointing season is highlighted by the fact their best win is over Elon (238 RPI) and their loss to Florida Gulf Coast in which they were doubled up 60-30 and they managed one first half field goal in shooting 5.9% (1-17) and trailed 30-6 at the break.

The WAC
Before getting pummeled by North Carolina Nevada had started to bring some level of respectability to the conference as now their record is 7-5 and they have a reasonable RPI of 45. That RPI has come with zero top 100 wins. In fact, the entire conference boasts only top 100 wins against BYU (Boise State), Oral Roberts (Utah State), and New Mexico (New Mexico State). It’s odd seeing the WAC’s RPI sitting as a conference at 19 and it’ll be odd likely not even considering any WAC teams for an at large.

The RPIs of the Sun Belt
The simplistic formula of the RPI makes it so there will always be teams that are far better (and far worse) than their RPIs suggest. This is especially true this early in the year. In the Sun Belt I think South Alabama, North Texas, Western Kentucky, Arkansas Little Rock, and New Orleans are all pretty solid teams and only South Alabama has a decent RPI (48). If there are truly 166 teams better than New Orleans (RPI 167) I want to see them; the Privateers are pretty good.

The CAA
VCU and George Mason both have decent records and decent RPIs. Still, VCU disappointingly has zero top 100 wins and only George Mason will give them an opportunity in conference play and they only play George Mason once and it is at George Mason. George Mason has 4 top 100 wins. Their lack of opportunities for more quality wins falls on the rest of the conference where no one has really stepped up.

The Western Division of the MAC
In the East, 4 of the 6 teams sport top 100 RPIs. In the West the best RPI is Central Michigan’s 111. Unfortunately the conference’s best RPI belongs to Miami (OH) at 29 despite being under .500 due to a tough schedule but Kent State is at 30 with a solid 12-3 including 4 top 100 wins. If the West could have kept up with the East in the non-conference we could see a multi-bid year from the MAC. Instead now the MAC needs the East to further dominate the West to create separation.

The Middle of the MWC
The problem with the middle of the MWC if that there is no middle. There are 5 teams with top 100 RPIs and 4 teams with RPIs under 200 (including Air Force at a rough 272 RPI).

Kentucky
Not that many expected them to compete for a national title or anything, but they are horrible.

Illinois
Bruce Weber has got to be getting close to getting himself run out of town. Being 8-7 (0-2) is one thing but when one of those losses is at home to Penn State you have to wonder where their conference wins will come from.

The problem with "Bracketology"

Joe Lunardi's posted a new bracket and as I'm criticizing some of his selections, I ask myself the following question, "At this point, are there 65 teams that deserve to be in the tournament?" And I think the answer is no. Look at the some of the teams that have moved into the bracket and what they have done since it was last posted:

Baylor - they have beat a bunch of RPI 150+ teams and lost to Arkansas
UConn - beat Seton Hall and lost to Notre Dame
Virginia- beat Hampton, Elon and Harftford. Lost to Xavier.

Considering how unimpressive those accomplishments are, I took at look at teams that aren't included and I can't really make an solid argument for any of those teams either. Here's a breakdown of "bubble" teams at this point.

Not quite there - One or more good win and no bad losses
Kansas State
Miami (FL)
Baylor
Virginia
California
Ohio State
Mississippi
Arizona
West Virginia

Unproven - No bad losses, but no good wins either
UConn
Minnesota
Florida
Georgetown
Syracuse
Clemson

Inconsistent - One or more good wins, but also one or more bad loss
Providence
Stanford
Florida State
Texas Tech
USC
Arizona State
NC State
Georgia Tech
Nebraska
Utah
Arkansas
Boston College
UMass


The point of this is that as of January 7, there are maybe 30 teams that have accomplished enough to be worthy of an NCAA tournament bid. Those other 35 bids will be filled by conference champions from smaller conferences and teams that earn the bids in conference play.

My Last Comment on College Football (Until My Next Comment on College Football)

Congratulations to LSU! Last night LSU won the hollowest national title in the modern era of college football (provided we define modern era as since the formation of the Bowl Alliance and then Bowl Championship Series). That sounds insulting to LSU and I suppose it is but when you have a horrible system like this then you’re going to end up with questionable results. Truthfully LSU might be the best team in the country. I’m not completely convinced they’re better than Georgia or USC or maybe even Oklahoma or Missouri. The bigger part of the problem is that I don’t think Ohio State is better than probably the seventh or eighth best team in the country. Especially in a season like this one where there are so many teams separated by so little it makes no sense to limit it to a one game playoff.

Again, congratulations to LSU. They very well might be the best team in the country. It’s a shame there’s no way to find out for sure. Thank God football is done and now we can get more to basketball.

NCAA Bubble Games of the Week

I’ve decided to start a new regular segment with the beginning of conference play. Each week I’ll take a look at the schedule and try to identify games that will potentially impact teams hoping to make the NCAA tournament. This list won’t necessarily include what many will consider to be the “best” games of each week. For example, you won’t see UCLA vs. Washington St. listed below as I expect each of them to easily make the tournament. Another glaring example this week is the lack of Missouri Valley games. At this point I would guess the conference will get 2-3 bids but at this point it’s tough for me to distinguish the contenders from the pretenders so I consider every game to be important until a few teams separate themselves from the pack.

Tuesday

Florida at Alabama
These two teams have combined for 3 wins over the RPI top-100 and those wins are vs. Georgia State, Temple, and Wofford. Right now I don’t think either of these teams are tournament teams but the winner does collect another “decent” win.

Wednesday

No. 18 Mississippi at No. 9 Tennessee
Tennessee appears to be a no-brainer at this point but this game is big for Mississippi. They are currently 18th in RPI with wins over Winthrop and Clemson. I’m not convinced that either of those wins is that great but a win at Tennessee would be quite impressive.

No. 21 Arizona at Arizona State
ASU may be the surprise of the Pac-10 this year. Losses on the road vs. Illinois and Nebraska early in the year indicated another down year. But wins against Xavier and Oregon over the past couple of weeks indicate that ASU may make some noise this year and a win against in-state rival U of A would probably move ASU into my bracket at this point. Arizona, on the other hand, struggled against a bad Oregon State team then lost to Oregon. They’ve got something to prove as well.

No. 22 Rhode Island at No. 23 Dayton
The Atlantic 10 should be a fun conference to watch this year. Right now there are 4 teams that are serious tourney contenders (Rhode Island, Dayton, UMass, and Xavier) while another 4-5 teams may be able to enter the discussion based on their in-conference performance. My guess is three teams will separate themselves in the A-10 so these games are going to be important come March.

Saint Joseph's at Massachusetts
See Rhode Island vs. Dayton

Syracuse at Cincinnati
I think Syracuse is posed to be sitting squarely on the bubble again this year. Their #9 RPI seems extremely inflated. They have seven wins vs. 51-100 RPI teams but none of those teams are tourney teams at this point (Sienna, St. Joeseph’s, Washington, Tulane, Virginia, E. Tennesse St., South Florida). They have also played three top-20 RPI teams (UMass, Rhode Island, Ohio St) and have lose all three. Cincy’s win at Louisville shows that Cincy is capable of playing good basketball. And while a win against Cincy won’t help Syracuse’s tournament resume, a loss is possible and could significantly hurt Syracuse come March.

Thursday

No. 4 Washington State at USC
Washington St. has an RPI of 39 despite being 12-0. They have two decent wins over Baylor and Gonzaga but have not faced another RPI top-100 team. Meanwhile, USC seems to be very inconsistent. They have three wins against RPI top-100 teams but two of those teams have are .500 or worse (Miami-OH and Southern Illinois). Add in a season-opening loss to Mercer and they’re tourney resume is suspect.

California at Oregon
Oregon has bee inconsistent to say the least. Losses to Nebraska and Oakland could come back to haunt them but wins vs. Kansas State and Arizona keep them on the radar. Cal started off Pac-10 play with a good wins vs. USC followed by a tough loss to UCLA.

West Virginia at Louisville
Louisville’s one win vs an RPI top 100 came against UNLV, so they are in need of good wins; especially considering questionable losses to BYU, Purde, and Cincinnati. West Virginia had a good win Sunday vs. Marquette and their 3 losses are against good teams (Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame).

Saturday

North Carolina State at No. 1 North Carolina
N.C. State seems poised to be squarely on the bubble at this point. They have only two wins vs RPI top-100 teams (Villanova and Seton Hall) while losses to New Orleans and East Carolina may be difficult to overcome.

No. 3 Kansas at Nebraska
Nebraska’s RPI is very low due (145) despite an 11-2 record thanks to playing an absolutely horrible non-conference schedule (SOS #332). Their two losses are to in-state rival Creighton and W. Kentucky while they have wins over Oregon and Arizona State. They will need a very good conference showing to overcome their weak non-conference schedule

Connecticut at No. 7 Georgetown
Each of these teams has only one wins vs. RPI top-100 teams (UConn vs Seton Hall and Georgetown vs. Alabama). Each will need solid showings in the Big East.

Florida State at No. 19 Clemson
Clemson’s OT loss to North Carolina helped to show that Clemson is a legitimate tourney team, but that doesn’t make up for the fact that they have only one win vs a RPI top-100 team (Alabama). Florida State has three wins against RPI top-100 teams but those teams may not be there come March (Minnesota, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech).

Wake Forest at Boston College
Two teams that need some good wins. They could be battling for a tourney spot come March, so the head-to-head match-up is big.

South Florida at Providence
Another two teams that look to be moving towards a finish in the middle of their conference. Providence has started league play 0-2 including a bad loss at DePaul, while USF is 1-1 in the Big East thanks to a win over a bad Rutgers team.

Georgia Tech at Miami (FL)
Miami is off to a 12-1 start, but has their schedule has been weak (SOS #242), while Georgia Tech is 7-6 with 5 losses vs. the RPI top-50.

Kansas State at Oklahoma
Oklahoma looks to be a tournament team at this point. They are 3-3 vs. the RPI top-100, including two wins vs. the RPI top-50 (Gonzaga and West Virginia). K-State hasn’t lived up to expectations at this point, but their four losses have all come against RPI #54 or better teams. They have one good win (vs. Cal) but will need a solid conference showing to make a tourney appearance.

No. 20 Stanford at Oregon
Both teams started Pac-10 play with wins vs. USC and losses to UCLA. The Pac-10 looks to be very competitive so every game is important.

Duquesne at No. 22 Rhode Island
Duquesne is sitting behind four other teams in the A-10 right now, which probably isn’t good enough to get into the tournament. A win vs. Rhode Island would get them into the discussion. Rhode Island is 14-1 with wins over Providence and Syracuse (time will tell how good those wins are). They should be in the hunt in the A-10 but can’t afford many losses if they want to keep up with Dayton, Xavier and UMass.

Alabama at Arkansas
Arkansas has two decent wins thus far (Baylor and Providence) but a bad loss to Appalachian St. Alabama owns only one win vs. an RPI top-100 team (Wofford). Right now neither is a tournament team but a win in this game keeps hope alive.