NCAA Basketball: Weekend Bubble Preview

Saturday
Kansas at Missouri
Missouri’s win at home over Texas shows that Missouri can beat a quality team. They could use a big win to make up for their loss at Iowa State on Wednesday.

USC at UCLA
USC would drop to 1-4 in conference with a loss here. And with two more games on the road next week, they could use a good win against cross-town rival UCLA.

Clemson at Duke
Clemson is in good shape at this point and a win at Duke would move them closer to an at-large bid.

Notre Dame at Georgetown
Call me crazy, but I think Notre Dame might have a better tournament resume at this point. Both could use a win in this game.

Ohio St. at Tennessee
Not only would a win vs. Tennessee be good for Ohio St, but it would also be a good win for the entire Big 10.

Texas A&M at Kansas State
K-State looks to keep the momentum gained from the win at Oklahoma, while A&M hopes to rebound from the shellacking they received at Texas Tech on Wednesday. A win for A&M would be their first road win of the year.

Villanova at Syracuse
This could be a big game for these teams. Syracuse is suffering from injuries and may be on the outside looking in at this point. Villanova has lost their last 2 road games against sub-par competition.

Miami (FL) at N.C. State
This is a match-up between two teams sitting squarely on the bubble at this point. N.C. State opened up conference play with two tough road games (UNC and Clemson) and need a win here to avoid a 0-3 start in conference play.

Arizona State at Stanford
ASU proved they can win on the road with a double-OT win over Cal on Thursday. Another road win at Stanford would set up a game for 2nd place in the Pac-10 next week vs. Washington St. Stanford had a good win on Thursday vs. Arizona and would like to a win here before going on the road for their next three games.

Charlotte at UMass
UMass picked up a great win at Dayton on Wednesday. After a rough non-conference slate, Charlotte has started conference play 2-0, with a win here they could reasonably be 6-0 when they travel to Dayton on February 2nd.

Boston College at Virginia
Virginia is not near tournament consideration at this point. Boston College is on the bubble right now, but a loss to Virginia would knock them off.

Arizona at California
Arizona is 1-3 in conference and in desperate need of a win, while Cal has fared only slightly better at 2-3 in conference. The loser of this game will be putting their tournament chances at risk.

Baylor at Nebraska
Just a week ago Nebraska was getting some consideration for an at-large bid, but two losses to start Big 12 play have stopped that talk. Baylor is 2-0 in conference and along with a solid non-conference performance has put together a solid tournament resume so far.

Illinois State at Drake
This is a battle between the two unbeaten teams in the Missouri Valley. Both teams would likely be at-large selections at this point and the outcome of this game won’t change that.

Indiana State at Creighton
This game is for 3rd place in the Valley. Creighton has the better tournament resume at this point and a win in this game would help to improve it.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
This is another match-up between two teams off the bubble. Georgia Tech is a long-shot at this point but capable of playing good basketball. Virginia Tech does not have a good win at this point and coupled with a few questionable losses, they have very little room for error.

Kentucky at Florida
Florida is still searching for their first “good” win of the year. A win over Kentucky wouldn’t necessarily qualify as a “good” win but Kentucky has shown glimpses of good basketball recently.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Oklahoma needs to avoid going on a skid while without Blake Griffin to remain in consideration for an at-large bid. Texas Tech helped themselves tremendously with their win over Texas A&M but likely will need a few more good wins before moving onto the bubble.

Sunday
Oregon at Washington St.
Oregon has been up and down this year but a win over a top-10 team in Washington St. would be a nice feather in their cap.

Michigan State at Minnesota
At some point Minnesota is going to have to beat a good team to get serious tournament consideration.

Marquette at UConn
Much like Minnesota, UConn is a team that has avoided bad losses but also lacks a quality win.

Conference Breakdown

Much like the Bubble Watch put together on espn.com by Andy Glockner, we here at Bizarro Joe Lunardi have put together a list of which teams are locks, should be in, or have work to do.

ACC:
Locks – UNC, Duke
Both no doubters.

Should be in – Clemson
I still am assuming that Clemson will fall apart much like last year, but with back to back wins over Florida State and North Carolina State they should be in right now.

Work left to do – Miami, Florida State, Boston College, Wake Forest, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
The ACC will get more than three so some of these teams will be fine. Miami was killed by Boston College (worse than the final score indicates) and they’re going to need to beat the rest of these teams to separate themselves. That’s really true for all teams. The thing keeping Boston College out right now was that inexplicable loss to Robert Morris. I think it’s likely that two of Miami, Florida State, and Boston College will separate and get in. The others listed need to separate themselves much more.

Big East:
Locks – Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown
I hesitated a big on Georgetown; they really lack big wins but I think they’re good enough to pick them up.

Should be in – West Virginia, Providence
Right now I like where these two teams sit the best but they’re going to need to find a place to pick up road wins.

Work left to do – Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Connecticut
What separates Syracuse from West Virginia and Providence is that they have had the best chance for a conference road win (Cincinnati) and they failed. Assuming the locks and should be ins get in I bet there are still 2-3 bids to go around for these 5 teams and I don’t see a whole lot separating them yet. Louisville is the most interesting team considering their roster has been in flux so much of this year. If they get their team all together and start playing well they could be the wild card here.

Big 10:
Locks – Michigan State, Wisconsin
If Michigan State keeps playing the way they did at Iowa this might change.

Should be in – Indiana, Ohio State
Indiana’s schedule hasn’t been too tough so they don’t have a lot of nice wins but their record will end up looking plenty good enough to get them in. Ohio State is on this line for now but they’re going to need to pick up some conference road wins. Of their final 6 conference road games, they should at least 4 and probably 5.

Work left to do – Purdue, Minnesota
Purdue has a poor RPI (and a stunning loss to Wofford at home) but winning their last two games (a win against Ohio State plus a road game, even if it was Iowa) keeps them alive. Minnesota has a better RPI than Purdue but their top three wins are Iowa State, Nicholls State, and Santa Clara. Missing out on the opportunity against Indiana hurt.

Big 12:
Locks – Kansas, Texas
They will both be fine.

Should be in – Texas A&M
I would have put TAMU on the locks line if they had lost competitively but they were horrible against Texas Tech. Still, it would be pretty stunning for them not to end up getting in.

Work left to do – Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri
Baylor’s season has been a great story but we’ll see how they do with having 5 of their next 7 on the road. Kansas State is off to a great start by stealing a win on the road at another bubble team. Texas Tech’s win against TAMU was nice and impressive but they got killed the previous game against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma is off to a rough conference start and now will need to rebound without talented Blake Griffin. Missouri’s loss at Iowa State was costly only because they missed out on one of their easier road win opportunities.

Pac 10:
Locks – UCLA, Washington State
Obviously UCLA has a leg up in a battle for a one seed, but they’re both looking at high seeds.

Should be in – Oregon
Oregon has rebounded nicely from a rough stretch of three losses in four games and they are in pretty good position even with the Washington loss.

Work left to do – Arizona State, Stanford, Arizona, California, USC
I really like Arizona State’s resume most after the top 3 in the Pac 10 now. Considering I can’t put them in the should be in category yet because of that poor RPI no one else can be there either. The Sun Devils boast a huge out of conference win over Xavier (they killed them, too) and have wins over Oregon, Arizona, and Cal already. They’ll have to hit the road now and we’ll see how they fare there. In the remaining four teams there are not a ton of real nice wins to go around. Arizona is likely in good shape because of their huge RPI. We’ll know a lot more about USC after their next three games, all on the road. That’s troublesome for a team that started off conference play 1-3.

SEC:
Locks – Tennessee, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
Tennessee is clearly the best team in the conference. The rest of the conference is poor enough that Mississippi and Vanderbilt should be able to maintain their gaudy records and turn them into gaudy NCAA tournament seeds.

Should be in – no one
This is not a great conference

Work left to do – Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Florida’s record is still nice and none of their three losses are embarrassing. They should be able to beat on all the non-lock teams and might take a home game versus Tennessee or Vanderbilt. Mississippi State has taken 7 in a row but their best win is still over Missouri. Arkansas would be in much better shape if they didn’t just lose a horrible game at South Carolina.

Atlantic 10:
Locks – Dayton, Xavier
I don’t care that they both lost Wednesday, they are in.

Should be in – Rhode Island, Massachusetts
If it wasn’t for the loss at St. Louis I’d consider throwing them in the lock column. As it is, they should still feel pretty comfortable. I’m not sure UMass is really as comfortable as I feel they should be, but they’re a tournament team.

Work left to do – St. Joseph’s, Duquesne, Charlotte
Had St. Joseph’s won at Charlotte they’d be in the should be in category. Duquesne is not in yet but they’ll have plenty of opportunities to prove they are worthy during the conference season. Charlotte has too many question marks on their resume, but they have a load of pretty nice wins. Again, if they are a tournament team they need to have more games like the Clemson and fewer games like the losses to Monmouth and Hofstra.

Other:
Locks – Memphis, Butler, St. Mary’s
Memphis is obviously in and it would take a catastrophic collapse for Butler or St. Mary’s to fall out.

Should be in –Gonzaga,
Gonzaga would be in right now and only needs to avoid bad losses in conference (that is, lose to anyone other than St. Mary’s.

Work left to do – Drake, Illinois State, Kent State, South Alabama, George Mason,
Virginia Commonwealth, Creighton, Cleveland State, CSU Northridge, Sam Houston State, Stephen F. Austin, Half the Mountain West
Drake is real close to being in but they do have a lack of quality wins. If they continue to win the Valley they should be fine. Illinois State doesn’t have much in the way of wins either and they have a worse loss. Both Illinois State and Drake need to perform well in conference. Kent State is looking pretty decent and a clear regular season MAC win for the Flashes could get them in. South Alabama is in a tough spot where they cannot afford losses in conference (except perhaps to Western Kentucky) but they do manage to have a real good RPI despite only one top 100 win. George Mason had a hot start to the season and looked like a strong tournament team but has since lost some troubling games. VCU has no quality wins and just George Mason ahead of themselves as another opportunity. Creighton doesn’t have much other than a win over St. Joe’s but they’ve recovered well from a slow conference start to re-enter the discussion. Cleveland State has no problem losses but they do have quite a few losses. They better at least tie for first to have a shot. CSU Northridge has two top 100 wins (UCSB and Cleveland State) that might not stay top 100 and only one more opportunity (UCSB) that also may not stay top 100. They really have no margin for error. Similarly, Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin can afford no slip-ups. San Diego State, UNLV, Utah, BYU, and New Mexico all don’t have much to separate them right now but as the season progresses separation should occur (and must occur if the conference wants an at large).

NCAA Basketball: Thursday Recap

Thursday saw a number of team miss an opportunity to improve their tournament resumes.

UConn - This appears to be a team that is just below NCAA quality. A loss at home to another bubble teams is a huge missed opportunity.

Rhode Island - Their loss to St. Louis is probably the worst loss of the night for a potential tourney team. Actually, it is DEEFINITELY the worst loss of by a potential tourney team. St. Louis is the same team that a week ago scored only 20 points in a loss to George Washington. This game, much like St. Joe's loss on Wednesday, could hurt the A-10's chances for 4 tourney bids.

Minnesota - A loss to Indiana doesn't hurt their resume, but it is yet another missed opportunity for Minnesota to collect a quality win. So far Minnesota has played three potential tourney teams and have lost all three.

Oregon - The Jekyll and Hyde season of Oregon continues with a bad loss to Washington.

Arizona - The Wildcats drop to 1-3 in conference and have lost 4 of their last 6. Saturday's game at Cal is looking to be huge.

There were also a few teams that helped themselves with nice wins of Thursday

Louisville - any doubt that Louisville is not a tourney team should be put to rest after their 20-point win vs. Marquette.

Cleveland State - Going into conference play, Butler appeared to be the cream of the crop in the Horizon. However, they now have two conference losses while Cleveland St moves to 6-0. Due to 5 non-conference losses, Cleveland St probably can't afford more than one loss in the Horizon if they want an at-large bid. Meanwhile,

Arizona State - The biggest question with ASU was whether they would be able to win on the road. Their win at Cal moves them to 4-0 in the Pac-10.

NCAA Basketball: Wednesday Recap

First off, let's look at the A-10, where the two top teams in the league, Xavier and Dayton both lost. Dayton had their 13-game winning streak snapped by UMass, who was coming off back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and St. Joseph's. Dayton is still in great shape for an at-large bid and this win greatly helps UMass, who is squarely on the bubble at this point. Xavier lost by 19 at Temple. Temple is 7-8 on the year, but outside of an early season loss to Charleston, all of their losses have come against RPI top-100 teams. So while the I don't think they Xavier loss is as bad as it appears on the surface, this isn't a good loss for a team that is playing for a good seed come March. Also in the A-10, Charlotte defeated St. Joseph's to move to 2-0 in the league. Charlotte's non-conference performance will likely keep them from gaining an at-large bid, but St. Joseph had been getting some attention for a bid and this loss could hurt them. The outcome of this game plus the Xavier/Temple game may spell trouble for the league as a whole. There is a lot of talk that the A-10 could be a 4-bid conference, but I think for that to happen 4 teams will have to separate themselves from rest of the conference. However, if teams like Temple and Charlotte can stay in close to those 3rd adn 4th place teams, it could cost the conference a bid.

In other mid-major action, there were two games in the Missouri Valley that could have tournament ramifications. First, Drake remained undefeated in conference play by escaping with a 1-point win over Bradley. A loss to Bradley could have seriously crippled Drake's tournament resume. Also remaining undefeated in the Valley was Illinois State, who won big over Wichita State.

Two teams in the Big 12 suffered losses that will likely hurt their tournament resume. Texas A&M lost at Texas Tech and while this loss doesn't put A&M in danger of not receiving a bid, this could hurt them when seeding takes place. Texas Tech, on the other hand, does just enough to remain near the bubble. Also reaming just off the bubble is Missouri, who followed up a good win against Texas with a loss at Iowa State. This loss could be one that Missouri looks back on if they just miss receiving a bid.

Another team that suffered a very damaging loss was Arkansas. Their loss at home to South Carolina is almost inexcusable for a team that will be hoping to receive an at-large bid. Elsewhere in the SEC, Mississippi defeated Florida. To me, the significance of this game is difficult to guage. Florida has only defeated one team in the RPI top-100 (Temple), so it is difficult to call this a good win for Mississippi at this point. And Ole Miss could use more good wins as their only win over a potential at-large team was against Clemson.

In the ACC, Duke won a road game at Florida State. Florida St. drops to 1-2 in conference and their best wins are against teams that would not make the tournament at this point (Florida and Minnesota). This loss won't hurt Florida St. but it is another missed opportunity for the Seminoles.

NCAA Basketball: Tuesday Recap

Tuesday's games exposed one "pretender" that had been gain some consideration for the NCAA tournament. Nebraska lost at Colorado. Nebraska has not won a game on the road yet this year and if they can't win against a team like Colorado then it's highly unlikely that they will win enough road games to garner serious consideration for an NCAA bid.

Another team whose tournament resume receiced a black mark on Tuesday was Miami (FL). Miami's loss to Boston College could be detrimental come March. These two teams may be fighting for a tourney spot in March

Other teams that helped themselves last night:

Creighton - their win over Northern Iowa won't likely influence the selection committee but Creighton cannot afford many more losses if they want to remain hopeful for an at-large bid.

Notre Dame - Another impressive performance at home for the Irish in their win over Cincinnati.

Clemson - A win over NC State probably hurts the Wolfpack more than it helps Clemson. NC State is now 0-2 in the ACC and makes their Saturday game against Miami (FL) even more important.

UNLV - I'm not convinced that the Mountain West is a two-bid league, but UNLV bounced back after their loss to Air Force with a convincing win over BYU.

Thoughts on Monday's games

Only two games last night had the potential to impact the NCAA tournament. First, Kansas cruised to a win over Oklahoma. This game proved two things: #1 Kansas is really good and #2 Oklahoma needs Blake Griffin to be any good. If Griffin is out for an extended period of time it will be tough for Oklahoma to remain a tournament team.

The second game with tournament ramifications was the Pitt/Georgetown match-up. After beating Georgetown, Pitt should no longer have to hear the questions as to whether they are still a good team without Fields and Cook. As for Georgetown, as I mention yesterday, they still do not own a win over a team that is currently projected to be in the NCAA tournament. Upcoming home games against Notre Dame and Syracuse are games that the Hoyas should win if they want a high seed in the tournament.

Reaction to Joe Lunardi's Bracketology

A new week means a new bracket from our friend Joe Lunardi. And as always there are some interesting changes from the previous week's bracket.

First, let's take a look at the team's moving into the bracket this week.

Kansas State - Lunardi really liked their win at Oklahoma and they are now an #8 seed. I can't argue with this because #1, I'm a K-State fan; but more importantly OU is a very good win and for a young K-State team to win on the road shows that they may be a team to be reckoned with over the next two months.

Illinois State - Lunardi has given another bid to the Missouri Valley. I agree that right now the Valley is probably a two-bid league and Drake and Illinois State have separated themselves slightly at this point.

Louisville - This might me a questionable inclusion. Losses to BYU and Purdue were possibly the result of not having Padgett in the line-up, but the loss to Cincinnati isn't helping them at this point either. The win over W. Virginia is nice, but doesn't overcome those losses in my opinion.

Arizona State - Here's another young team that seems to be playing much better. The problem here is they have yet to prove they can win on the road. An #11 seed is probably fair at this point, but they can move up with a couple road wins.

Florida - They still don't have what I consider to be a "good" win and I'm not sure how many "good" wins are for the taking in the SEC. Winning at Ole Miss on Wednesday would be a good start.

And now for the teams that fell off the board since last week.

Providence - I'm not sure what Providence did to get taken off the bracket. Granted they didn't play great competition over the past week (Home games vs. Rutgers and South Florida), but they won both easily. Maybe Lunardi reconsidered their place in the bracket thanks to the losses vs. DePaul and South Carolina.

Boston College - An RPI of 90 and a loss to Robert Morris will get you pulled off the board pretty quickly.

Syracuse - As I predicted last week, Syracuse ran into trouble at Cincinnati. They followed that up with a 20 point loss at West Virginia.

Virginia - Losses to Xavier and Duke were to be expected, but their one "good" win vs. Arizona is not looking as good as it did a month ago.

UNLV - The loss to Air Force is troublesome for a team hoping for an at-large bid out of the Mountain West.

Finally, there are some teams that have received interesting seeds by Lunardi.

Ohio State - An #8 seed seems a little high for a teams whose best wins are against 3 bubble teams (Syracuse, Cleveland St and Florida). Considering the loss to Purdue on Saturday, being Ohio St seems to be squarely on the bubble.

Oregon - Wins against Cal, Stanford and Arizona are nice, but that doesn't mean they deserve a #3 seed. A top 12 team does not lose games to Nebraska and Oakland. Oregon also lost to an Arizona State team that barely made the bracket.

Arizona State - An #11 seed seems a little low for a team that has beat Oregon and Arizona in starting conference play 3-0. Their next two games, at Cal and at Stanford, will determine whether ASU can win on the road.

Notre Dame - I think ND deserves a seed higher than #8. They were impressive in their wins over W. Virginia and UConn. The problem is that they've played only 2 true road games and lost both (Georgia Tech and Marquette).

Georgetown - By the end of the year, Georgetown may very well be deserving of a #2 seed, but at this point their two best wins are against teams that aren't in the bracket (UConn and Alabama). They need to do a little more before I would seed them this highly.

NCAA Bubble Games of the Week

I've included just the weekday games at this point and will cover the weekend games on Friday.

Monday

Oklahoma at Kansas
Despite the loss the Kansas State on Saturday, Oklahoma still has an NCAA resume at this point but will likely battle teams like Missouri, Baylor and Kansas State for a bid. A win at Kansas would help to distinguish them from the pack.

Tuesday

Ohio St at Michigan St.
Both teams are coming off of bad losses. MSU has little to worry about at this point, but Ohio State could use another good win

NC State at Clemson
Clemson followed up a questionable loss to Charlotte with a decent win over Florida State. NC State looks to rebound after a loss to North Carolina

Miami at Boston College
Boston College has some work to do after a loss to Robert Morris. A win vs. BC wouldn’t necessarily be a “good” win for Miami, but at this point a loss to BC could be detrimental.

BYU at UNLV
Both teams own only one win vs. the RPI top-100. UNLV’s loss to Air Force could come back to haunt them come March.

Cincinnati at Notre Dame
Cincinnati had wins over Syracuse and Villanova, yet some bad losses earlier in the year are keeping them from getting serious consideration for a tourney spot at this time. Notre Dame got another good win against UConn this week and are in good shape at this point.

Creighton at Northern Iowa
If Creighton wants to keep their hopes of an at-large bid alive, this may be a near “must-win”.

Wednesday

Duke at Florida State
At some point Florida State is going to need a good win (I’m not ready to classify wins over Florida or Minnesota as “good”).

Florida at Mississippi
This game is an opportunity for Florida to collect their first win against an RPI top-50 team. Bids may be tough to come by in the SEC, so this could be an important game for Mississippi as well.

UMass at Dayton
Dayton appears poised to battle Xavier for the A-10 crowd. UMass needs a win to avoid opening conference play 0-2.

Utah at San Diego St.
Teams from the Mountain West may be looking at one at-large bid. This game may paly a part in determining who gets that bid.

Thursday

Indiana at Minnesota
Minnesota is 12-3, has an RPI of 51, but does not have a win vs. the RPI top-100.

Butler at Cleveland State
A battle between what appears to be the top 2 teams in the Horizon. Butler would most likely receive an at-large bid at this point, while Cleveland State is probably squarely on the bubble.

Marquette at Louisville
Louisville appears to be back on track with the return of Padgett. They may still have some work to do to make up for losses to BYU and Cincinnati

Arizona at Stanford
Arizona’s RPI is ridiculously inflated considering they have only one win vs. the RPI top-50. They will need a win to avoid going 1-3 in conference play. Stanford is looking for their first win against the RPI top-50.

Providence at UConn
UConn let Georgetown off the hook and are still looking for just their second win vs the RPI top-100 (the first was vs. Seton Hall). Providence has been inconsistent with two wins vs the RPI top-50 but also two losses to RPI 100+ teams.

Arizona State at California
Cal would drop to 2-3 in conference with a loss, while Arizona State will be looking to go 4-0.