A Special Post-New Orleans/Mardi Gras Bubble Watch

A week in New Orleans without Internet that encompasses the end of Mardi Gras is not conducive to updating the blog. So, thanks to Chad for updating while I was away and you can all expect more frequent updates now, as it’s not all on Chad.

So, what did I miss when I was in New Orleans? To a great extent you’ll all have to tell me. It seems as though the Erik Bedard trade actually happened, for some reason the Suns decided Shaq would be a good fit, and some politicky stuff happened. Although all of those things interest me it is currently college basketball season. As Saturday rolls to a close I’ll be putting together a Saturday night Bubble Watch.

ACC:

Locks – Duke, North Carolina

I hate to say this, but Duke is looking like a one seed right now. UNC can get there as well.

Should be in – Clemson

I put Clemson on this line not so much for what they have done but because there must be at least three tournament teams from the ACC and Clemson is clearly the third best team in the conference right now.

Work left to do – Maryland, NC State, Miami, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Boston College

Right now all of these teams look like NIT teams. The strength in the ACC is in the depth, not the quality; I’m not sure any of these are true NCAA Tournament teams. Still, because of the fact that it is the ACC a few teams from this list will luck their way into bids.

Big East:

Locks – Georgetown

It’s funny that I only put the Hoyas on this line and I certainly don’t think they’re a true national title contender. The problem is I could see any of the other strong Big East teams losing games.

Should be in – Notre Dame, Louisville, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette

As long as these teams avoid bad losses they should all be in.

Work left to do – Syracuse, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Villanova

My guess is that at least one more from this group will end up sneaking in and unfortunately right now it’s most likely to be Syracuse.

Big 10:

Locks – Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin

Honestly these teams shouldn’t all be locks but the problem is that there are not a lot of potential losses on a Big 10 schedule. It would take a fall I do not foresee for any of these teams to lose their bids.

Should be in – Ohio State

Ohio State is in the same boat as the teams in the “Lock” category in that they are fine as long as they avoid losses to the non-tournament teams in the conference.

Work left to do – None

There is a pretty clear split in the Big 10.

Big 12:

Locks – Kansas

They are one of the best teams in the country.

Should be in – Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M

Kansas State is improving computer numbers away from being a lock. Texas is basically a lock too but if I don’t have Kansas State on that line I can’t put Texas there either. Baylor has lost three of four but I understand all of their losses. Texas A&M has rebounded from that three game losing streak.

Work left to do – Oklahoma

Just when it looked like Oklahoma looked like they were in good shape they lost three in a row, including blowing a chance for a road win by losing at Colorado (and losing badly). Under .500 in the Big 12 should not cut it.

Pac 10:

Locks – UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona

All four of these teams are in plenty good shape that it would take a catastrophic collapse to lose.

Should be in – USC

The Trojans are in good shape now and finish with 5 of 7 at home. They should be OK.

Work left to do – Oregon

Oregon might have fallen off this list completely with a loss at Cal today but they picked up a convincing 22-point victory. If they get to 8-8 in conference they should be OK.

SEC:

Locks – Tennessee

Tennessee might be one of the more underrated teams in the country and they’re a legitimate national title contender.

Should be in – Vanderbilt

Only the possibility of Vandy falling under .500 in the SEC keeps them out of the “Lock” line.

Work left to do – Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Kentucky

Arkansas has not lost since two bad losses in conference as they’ve won four in a row. They now, with Florida, sit in decent shape. Arkansas’s dominating win over Florida keeps them ahead in the pecking order at this point. With a 7-2 conference record you have to put Mississippi State over their rivals from Oxford considering Ole Miss sits at only 3-5 in the SEC. In fact, despite their unbeaten non-conference record, if the Rebels cannot get back to .500 in SEC play they’ll get some more home games in the postseason. At 6-2 I have included Kentucky in the discussion although it’s obviously a long shot after their play out of conference.

Atlantic 10:

Locks – Xavier

They are now the only lock in the conference.

Should be in – St. Joe’s, Rhode Island

I would guess that I’m one of the few that would say they should be in but St. Joe’s has been the second best team in conference play and if they are not in it would be a travesty. Rhode Island is also in great shape.

Work left to do – Dayton, Massachusetts

Once both Little and Wright are both back we can say more about Dayton. Right now being under .500 in the A-10 I have to say they have work to do but their ceiling is awfully high. Massachusetts should be fine if they can boost their record which they should be able to do considering they got the hard part of their conference schedule out of the way.

Other:

Locks – Memphis, Drake, Butler, St. Mary’s

Memphis is a potential number one overall seed and the other three teams here are in as long as they don’t all explode.

Should be in – Gonzaga

Gonzaga actually sits in good shape to take the West Coast Conference away from St. Mary’s as they have yet to trip up to anyone not named St. Mary’s and they still get St. Mary’s at home. The game March 1 against St. Mary’s will be huge.

Work left to do – Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason, Houston, Illinois State, Creighton, Brigham Young, UNLV, Davidson, Oral Roberts, South Alabama, Western Kentucky

I did not even bother ranking the teams in this grouping as I have throughout the rest of this Bubble Watch. This group is a hodgepodge consisting of dominating conference leaders (Davidson and Oral Roberts), contenders of decent conferences (VCU, George Mason, Brigham Young, UNLV, South Alabama, and Western Kentucky) and decent teams that don’t have a shot at the conference title due to the teams on the “Locks” line (Houston, Illinois State, and Creighton). Some teams will naturally fall by the wayside. Although it’s possible that the CAA and Sun Belt could get two bids they are certainly not getting two at large bids. Those that survive should continue to root for the lack of separation in the power conferences such as the ACC

Wednesday Recap

UConn over Syracuse - UConn continues to their winning streak with their fourth straight win over a team in the RPI top-50. By no means is this a bad loss for Syracuse, but a win would have pushed them one step closer to an at-large bid.

Maryland over Boston College - Maryland has now won 3 road games in the ACC (BC, UNC, GT). If they are able to hold serve at home they will have a great chance at earning a bid. Boston College has lost 5 straight and are falling off the bubble quickly.

Georgia Tech over Wake Forest - Georgia Tech has also won 3 road games in the ACC. The difference between Maryland and GT at this point is Maryland's win over UNC. Georgia Tech has a chance to pick up a very good win for themselves and the ACC if they can win at UConn on Saturday.

Duquesne over St. Joseph's - St. Joe's loss knocks them out of a first place tie with Xavier in the A-10 and is very disappointing after picking up a decent win over Villanova. They have two games with Xavier left on their schedule along with games vs. Rhode Island and Dayton. They will likely have to pick up a couple of wins in those games to have a chance for an at-large bid.

Vanderbilt over Georgia - Vanderbilt is winning the games they are supposed to win in the SEC but are struggling against the top teams in the conference. Picking up a couple wins against the top of the conference will be important to make sure they don't slip onto or even off the bubble.

Notre Dame over Seton Hall - This is a win Seton Hall could have used to legitimize their chance for an at-large bid. They will need a strong finish to get on to the bubble. On the other hand, this is a good road win for Notre Dame and at 7-2 in the Big East, the Irish need only to avoid a disastrous finish to earn a bid.

Utah over UNLV - This is not what UNLV needed to remain in consideration for a bid. They still have an outside chance for an at-large bid with a very strong finish but there is a very good chance that UNLV's tourney hopes will be tied to winning the Mountain West tournament.

Tuesday Recap

NC State over Virginia Tech - Just yesterday I wrote that VT seemed to be in a position to separate themselves from the pack in the ACC, but this loss brings them back to the pack, while NC State needed this win to stay in contention for an at-large bid.

Drake over Illinois State -Illinois State has been in 2nd place in the Valley for most of the year, but at this point they hold only a one-game lead over Southern Illinois and Creighton. This loss was a missed opportunity to pick a big win and also keep themselves separated from rest of the conference.

Tennessee over Florida - A loss to Tennessee won't hurt the Gators but he opportunities for Florida to pick up a good win are diminishing.

Catching Up

Sorry for the lack of updates lately. Let's take a look at what's happened since our last updates by looking at who has improved their tournament resume and who is falling off the bubble.

Moving Up
UConn - Over the last week and a half, the Huskies have defeated Indiana, Louisville and Pitt and in the process have gone from a team who may have been on the wrong side of the bubble to a team that would have to trip up horribly over the next month to not be included in the bracket.

Arkansas - Arkansas has picked up back-to-back wins over Mississippi and Florida. They most likely still have some work to do to make up for losses to Georgia and South Carolina but the Razorback are back in contention for a tournament bid. (By the way, Lunardi has Arkansas as a #6 seed in his latest bracket, which I think is ridiculously high).

Texas A&M - With wins over Texas and Baylor, the Aggies appear to have righted the ship. However, they still need to prove they can beat a quality opponent on the road if they hope to receive a high seed.

Louisville - Louisville appears to be in a good position for a bid at this point. The big question is whether they can pick up a few good road wins and earn a high seed.

Treading Water
Everyone in the ACC not named Duke or North Carolina - We keep waiting for a couple of teams to separate themselves from the pack in the ACC but it has yet to happen. At this point Clemson and Virginia Tech seem to be the closest to standing out, while Miami (FL) and Boston College seem to be the most likely to fall out of contention.

West Virginia - WVU picked up a decent win on the road at Providence but it's not enough to overcome an embarrassing loss at home to Cincinnati. The Mountaineers are at 5-4 in conference and will likely need to remain at or above .500 in the Big East to earn a bid.

Florida - The Gators are still searching for good wins. The win over Vanderbilt looks good on paper, but Vandy is not the team everyone thought they were a month ago.

Starting to Slip
Ohio State - The Buckeyes suffered a bad loss at Iowa on Saturday and have feasted on the lower half of the Big 10 thus far (Their 6 conference wins have come against Illinois twice, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State). They will need to pick up a couple of wins against the top half of the conference if they hope to earn a tourney bid.

Washington State - The Cougars dropped back-to-back home games to Cal and Stanford last week, are now 5-4 in the Pac 10 and have dropped from potentially earning a top 4 seed to being at risk of falling on the bubble. They have home games with USC and UCLA this week and will most likely need to pick up a win in one of those games to avoid sitting on the bubble.

Vanderbilt - It's hard to imagine that a team that finishes below .500 in the relatively weak SEC can earn an at-large bid. Right now, Vandy is at 3-4 in conference and their three wins are against South Carolina, LSU and Auburn. They will need a couple of wins against the better teams in the SEC if they hope to receive a bid in March.

Free Falling
Villanova - Villanova has lost five straight games, all to potential tournament teams, and quite frankly they haven't been competitive in any of them. At this point, it would take an incredible run over the last month of the season for the Wildcats to earn a bid.

Providence - Providence is in a very similar position to Villanova. The Friars are also 3-6 in the Big East and it seems highly unlikely that they are capable putting together a run that will get them back into tournament contention.

Arizona State - The Sun Devils have lost 5 straight games after opening Pac 10 play 4-0. A win this week at Arizona could get things back on track otherwise their tourney hopes are looking dim.