February 16 College Basketball Day in Review

Here's the day in review.

Borderline Teams Winning

Furman 51 – Davidson 86

Oklahoma 66 – Texas Tech 64

Temple 66 – Dayton 77

Western Kentucky 71 – Middle Tennessee State 66

Gonzaga 83 – San Francisco 63

Villanova 60 – St. John’s 42

SMU 47 – Houston 69

Florida Atlantic 74 – South Alabama 91

TCU 48 – New Mexico 64

Georgetown 70 – Syracuse 77

Oklahoma’s win at Texas Tech was dramatic and huge for the Sooners. Dayton got a much-needed victory at home. Western Kentucky and South Alabama both won setting up a huge battle on Thursday with the winner staying alive in the hopes for an at large bid. The Villanova and New Mexico wins are likely first steps but not enough to put them on the right side of the bubble. The biggest win on this list by far belongs to Syracuse, which beat up on a Georgetown team that looked completely hopeless. If Georgetown ends up with a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, strongly consider the possibility of them getting upset.

Borderline Teams Losing

Illinois State 72 – Indiana State 76

Auburn 90 – Mississippi 78

North Carolina Wilmington 75 – George Mason 73

Old Dominion 67 – VCU 66

California 76 – Arizona State 73

Oral Roberts 66 – IUPUI 69

The loss by Illinois State suggests that the Valley is a Drake MVC Tournament title away from being a one-bid league. The George Mason and VCU losses might have set the CAA as a one-bid league as well. The Oral Roberts loss likely reduced them to a Summit tournament title too. With six losses in their last eight games and a 3-7 record in a poor SEC, Mississippi will need several wins to get back in the picture (regardless of what Lunardi says). The team in the best shape on this list is Arizona State because of four top 25 wins but at 6-6 in conference and 4 of their final 6 on the road (and their only two home games versus UCLA and USC) plus an RPI of 75, things don’t look great for the Sun Devils now and things aren’t looking like they’ll get better in a hurry either.

Good Teams (i.e., Tournament Teams) Beating Bad Teams (i.e., Non-Tournament Teams)

Connecticut 74 – South Florida 73

Virginia Tech 53 – North Carolina 92

Colorado 45 – Kansas 69

Louisville 80 – Providence 72

Cleveland State 46 – Butler 51

Minnesota 56 – Wisconsin 65

Purdue 71 – Northwestern 56

Drake 65 – Northern Iowa 55

Tennessee 74 – Georgia 71

Missouri 63 – Kansas State 100

Memphis 79 – UAB 78

St. Mary’s 80 – Loyola Marymount 49

The winners in these games were expected even if it was tougher than expected for Connecticut, Tennessee, and Memphis.

Missed Opportunity

Florida 58 – Vanderbilt 61

Clemson 71 – North Carolina State 64

Texas 82 – Baylor 77

Washington State 62 – Oregon 53

Florida threw the game away at Vandy after a valiant comeback in the final minutes with sloppy play down the stretch. North Carolina State missed out on what may have been a must win chance at home against Clemson. Baylor’s loss was their 5^th in their last 6 games since the sixty-three overtime win over Texas A&M and their next three games include two road games and a tough home game against Kansas State. Oregon lost a tough game at home to Washington State and now hit the road for three games.

Bubble Battle

Ohio 62 – Kent State 72

Florida State 72 – Maryland 82

Arkansas 74 – Mississippi State 80

UNLV 48 – BYU 74

Kent State made themselves the only potential at large team from the MAC with their win over Ohio. Maryland cements themselves as the fourth team from the ACC, assuming the ACC ends up getting four bids. Mississippi State picked up a key win at home over Arkansas but now must hit the road for four games of their next five. BYU is now clearly the number one at large bid candidate from the MWC as UNLV didn’t even show up in Provo.

Battle of Good Teams

Stanford 67 – Arizona 66

Michigan State 61 – Indiana 80

I put Arizona in this category for now but at just 6-6 in the Pac 10 and four of their final six games on the road (and their two home games being against UCLA and USC) they need to find a way to win some games or be excluded. Michigan State remains fine despite the loss but losing three of their last four will affect seeding.

Meaningless Upset

Oklahoma State 59 – Texas A&M 54

Texas A&M is still likely fine despite a confusing loss.

Comparing Our Ballot With The Week 14 BlogPoll

I’m a bit late with this but I wanted to post the Week 14 BlogPoll. First, I need to post our ballot. We posted it earlier in the week but between the time we posted and the time it had to be submitted Kansas fell to Texas so there is a small change. Here was our ballot.

1. Duke
2. Memphis
3. North Carolina
4. Kansas
5. Tennessee
6. UCLA
7. Texas
8. Stanford
9. Xavier
10. Georgetown
11. Connecticut
12. Kansas State
13. Michigan State
14. Louisville
15. St. Mary’s
16. Notre Dame
17. Indiana
18. Butler
19. Purdue
20. Drake
21. Washington State
22. Wisconsin
23. Baylor
24. Texas A&M
25. Pittsburgh

And here is the BlogPoll (with first place votes in parentheses).

1. Memphis (13)
2. Duke (2)
3. Tennessee
4. Kansas
5. North Carolina
6. UCLA
7. Stanford
8. Texas
9. Georgetown
10. Xavier
11. Drake
12. Michigan State
13. Butler
14. Wisconsin
15. Connecticut
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Washington State
19. Texas A&M
20. Louisville
21. Notre Dame
22. Purdue
23. St. Mary’s
24. Vanderbilt
25. Marquette

For the rest of the votes (as well as links to each blog) click here.

Now I’ll do a quick rundown of major differences. Teams we favored in our ballot more than the final poll results were Connecticut, Kansas State, Louisville, and St. Mary’s. Since UConn’s loss against Providence (UConn’s worst loss of the year) they have won 9 straight, all against top 76 teams. I honestly have not loved UConn the times I’ve seen them this year but their resume is real solid at this point. Kansas State followed up their high rating from us by losing at Texas Tech and that’s a shame. I still love their talent (even if I am not completely sold on their consistency) but it could be that we voted them on the high end of a reasonable range. Louisville is a team I like a bit more than their resume because some of their losses may have been related to personnel being out for games earlier in the year. That said, they don’t even have a bad resume. St. Mary’s is a tough team to place because of their schedule. More simple subjectivity was used with them than most teams in the poll.

Teams the final poll favored more than us include Butler, Drake, and Wisconsin. Honestly, I have a hard time explaining why we placed Butler where we did. They’re likely better than that. Probably the main problem is that they do not have a top 100 win since 2007 and it’s easy to slip them behind other teams that pick up bigger wins. I don’t like that we have Drake as low as we do either but I feel more confident with our placement of them. I’ve probably seen them play more than most poll voters and I really do like Drake but there is only so much they can do to overcome their lack of talent (relatively speaking of course). I do love their consistency and their solid play helps them in close games. Wisconsin isn’t bad either, but where would they be without a late Flowers three in Austin and a banked in three by Butch in Bloomington? My guess is they’d be sitting with one quality win (at home against Indiana) and a ranking in the low 20s. I admit it’s dumb to play that game because you can play it with all teams but more than anything it’s meant to point out that they don’t have a lot of quality wins. At that point my subjectivity tells me Wisconsin is not a top 15 team.

Thursday Recap

Thursday night was highlighted by two games that could have major tournament implications.  First, Arizona State continues to add big wins to their tournament resume with a win over Stanford.  Earlier this week I wrote that I liked the Sundevils resume more than most and this win might give ASU too many quality wins for the tournament committee to ignore.  On the oppositie end of the spectrum in UMass's loss to Fordham.  My bubble rankings had the Minutemen squarely on the bubble prior to this game and they will now likely face an uphill battle in garnering a bid now.

In other action Washington State, Arizona, West Virginia, Oregon, and Clemson all took care of business by winning "should win" games.  And finally in the ACC, Boston College won over NC State and Wake Forest defeated Florida State.  The winners of these games likely gained very little from these victories and Florida State moves further off the bubble.  The results of these games were probably most detrimental to NC State.  I had the Wolfpack squarely on the bubble prior to tonight and this loss will knock them down with rest of the pack in the ACC.

A Wednesday Night College Basketball Recap

OK, I’ve grouped the games of interest tonight and bolded the team that belongs to the category where appropriate.

These Teams Are In

Notre Dame 78 – Connecticut 84

Wisconsin 68 – Indiana 66

There is nothing to worry about as a fan of these teams except for seeding.

Missed Opportunity

Maryland 65 – Duke 77

Houston 59 – Memphis 68

Arkansas 71 – Tennessee 93

Xavier 62 – Charlotte 60

These teams all had a chance to put a giant win on a potentially lacking resume and all came up short. That might be it for Charlotte and I still think Houston might need to beat Memphis once, but at this point doing that would likely result in an automatic bid.

Staying Alive

James Madison 56 – VCU 75

Davidson 83 – NC Greensboro 78

St. Bonaventure 56 – St. Joseph’s 81

Iowa State 64 – Oklahoma 76

Troy 57 – Western Kentucky 92

Missouri State 57 – Illinois State 69

BYU 79 – Colorado State 65

Ohio State 65 – Northwestern 47

George Mason 85 – Towson 73

For any of these winners this would have been a devastating loss.

OK, But You Should Try Not to Press Your Luck

Rhode Island 89 – Temple 92

Baylor 83 – Oklahoma State 93

Drake 62 – Southern Illinois 65

I feel bad even listing Drake in this category because they were bound to lose eventually but I could see the committee looking for reasons to exclude them. All of these teams should be OK as long as they take care of business in games they should win.

Seriously, You Need to Win a Game

Duquesne 63 – Dayton 61

Mississippi 67 – Alabama 76

I want to love Dayton but they’ve got to win a game eventually, particularly at home. Mississippi is making it awfully hard to make a case for them with a 3-6 SEC record.

My God, What Happened?!

Syracuse 78 – South Florida 89

Ohio 52 – Toledo 54

LSU 85 – Florida 73

Creighton 56 – Evansville 60

These were deathblows for Ohio and Creighton. The loss at USF was real tough for a Syracuse team that may not be favored in any of their remaining games. And Florida losing convincingly at home to the worst team in the SEC was not what the Gators needed considering their final 6 SEC games are not all that easy either.

The Game That Does Not Fit Nicely Into a Category

Kansas State 75 – Texas Tech 84

Kansas State made a decent run of it but they had dug themselves too deep a hole. This doesn’t concern me all that much probably partly because I don’t consider them a true contender for the regular season Big 12 title anyway. They’re too young and rough road trips should be expected but their NCAA Tournament bid is still secure.

As one last note, I’ll be asleep before the New Mexico-San Diego State game ends. I’m not thoroughly convinced either team is all that alive right now but the loser will almost certainly be dead.

One More Look at the Bubble

I'm going to pick up where Josh left off and actually attempt to rank the teams on the bubble. As a disclaimer, this is a ranking of each team's resume at this point in the season and in no way is this a prediction as to who will actually make the tournament.

I'm using Josh's previous bubble analysis as a starting point and will be focusing on the "Work Left to Do" group. In addition, I'm including a few more teams that I feel may be closer to that group than the "Should be in" group. Those teams are: Ohio State, Arizona, USC, Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, and St. Joseph's. I've also included Arizona State, who Josh did not include in the "Work Left to Do" group but I feel has moved back up with their win over Arizona. Also, keep in mind that there is little to distinguish many of these teams but the importance here is the bigger picture of who would potentially fill the 19 at-large spots that are available. And in all likelihood, a team would need to be in the top 15 to feel confident in receiving an at-large bid.

Enjoy, and as always, your comments are greatly appreciated.

1. Arizona - 4 wins vs. RPI top-50, the only reason they're listed is their .500 record in the Pac-10
2. Vanderbilt - their 2 wins vs. the RPI top 50 aren't extremely impressive (S. Alabama and UMass) but they are 6-1 vs. the RPI 50-100
3. USC - Wins over Oklahoma, UCLA, Oregon are more than enough to overshadow their season- opening loss to Mercer
4. Rhode Island - losses at BC and St. Louis, wins over Syracuse and a depleted Dayton. Upcoming games vs. Xavier and UMass are big.
5. Oklahoma - wins over Baylor, W. Virgina, Gonzaga, Arkansas. Lost at Colorado.
6. West Virginia - Only 2-6 vs. the RPI top 50 but they have avoided bad losses and are 2-1 vs. RPI 50-100.
7. Arkansas - 3-1 vs. RPI top 50, but have losses to S. Carolina, Georgia, and App. State.
8. Syracuse - 1-6 vs. RPI top 50, 4-2 vs. RPI 50-100, have avoided bad losses.
9. St. Joe's - swept UMass and beat Villanova, losses to Duquesne, Charlotte, and Holy Cross
10. Oregon - wins over K-State, Arizona, and Stanford. 3 bad road losses: Nebraska, Oakland, Washington.
11. Dayton - wins over Louisville, Pitt, and Rhode Island all occurred prior to injuries. A healthy Dayton team deserves a bid, but without a full compliment of players the Flyers aren't a tournament team.
12. Ohio State - best wins are over fellow bubble teams Florida and Syracuse. 0-7 vs. likely tournament teams ("Locks" and "Should be in"). Lost at Iowa.
13. Arizona State - The Sundevils were in danger of falling off the bubble, but completing the sweep of Arizona keeps them around. Also have a nice win over Xavier. Losses to Washington, Nebraska, and Illinois.
14. Mississippi State - The good news is that all of the Bulldogs' losses have come to teams in the RPI top 100. The bad news is they have only 3 wins against the RPI top 100. They can move up if they pick up wins in upcoming games against Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi and Vanderbilt.
15. Maryland - 6-3 in the ACC with the big win at UNC. The loss to American was bad, but if the Terps remain in 4th place in the ACC, they will likely receive a bid.
16. Massachusetts - Losses at St. Louis and Temple aren't horrible on paper, but they are the difference between being 4-5 in the A-10 and being 6-3. Outside of a game against URI, the Minutemen have good chance to win rest of their games in conference, which might be needed to move back up the pecking order in the A-10.
17. Florida - Florida's resume reminds me of the '07 Syracuse Orangemen. And we know how that turned out. In fact, I may have to dedicate a post later on to the similarities between the two teams. Florida has a nice win over Vandy, but that's about it and they played an absolutely ridiculous non-conference schedule.
18. UNLV - The Rebels likely will need to further separate themselves from BYU to earn a bid. They have only one win vs. the RPI top 50 (BYU) but that is balanced out by a loss at Air Force.
19. NC State - 1-4 vs. the RPI top 50, and 8-2 vs. RPI 50-100. This suggests that the Wolfpack are a decent team, but maybe not good enough for an at-large bid.
20. Mississippi - Ole Miss picked up some nice non-conference wins (Clemson, S. Alabama, New Mexico) but have faltered in conference. 3-5 in the ACC with losses to Auburn and S. Carolina hurt the Rebels' resume.
21. Miami (FL) - Miami is another team that feasted on a relatively easy non-conference slate but have struggled during conference play. Wins over Clemson and Mississippi St. are nice, but not enough to make up for a 3-6 record in the ACC.
22. Illinois State - 1-3 vs. the RPI top 50. Losses to E. Michigan, N. Iowa and Bradley. At one time the Redbirds were safely in 2nd place in the Valley, but now hold only a one game lead over Creighton.
23. Villanova - 2-6 vs. the RPI top 50. Losses to DePaul and Rutgers, 4-7 in the Big East.
24. Brigham Young - BYU's signature win is over a David Padgett-less Louisville. They have avoided bad losses outside of the loss to Boise St. They need to prove the 29-point loss to UNLV was a fluke.
25. Wake Forest - Wake Forest has only one road win on the year (at Iowa). 2-3 vs. RPI top 50, but only 4-4 vs RPI 50-100.
26. Florida State - 2-5 vs. RPI top 50 (wins over Florida and Miami), 4-4 vs. RPI 50-100.
27. Virginia Commonwealth - No wins vs. the RPI top 50. Losses at Hampton and James Madison.
28. Georgia Tech - Losses to Winthrop, Georgia and UNC-Greensboro. Their only win of note is over Notre Dame.
29. Boston College - 3-6 in the ACC, 2-5 vs. RPI top 50, 2-3 vs. RPI top 100, losses to Robert Morris and Virginia.
30. Houston - 0-3 vs. RPI top 50, 2-1 vs. RPI 50-100. No losses to RPI 100+. The Cougars seem to be the 2nd best team in C-USA. If they win rest of their conference games that aren't against Memphis, they have a shot at an at-large.
31. Kentucky - 6-3 in the SEC with nice wins over Tennessee and Vandy. But only 2-4 vs RPI top 50 and 1-3 vs. RPI 50-100.
32. George Mason - The good: 2-0 vs. the RPI top 50 (though the K-State team they beat in November is not the same as the current K-State team), 3-2 vs. RPI 50-100. The bad: five losses to teams RPI 100+, including 2 losses to teams RPI 200+.
33. Creighton - If Creighton wins out they will be no worse than tied for second in the MVC but that is likely not enough for an at-large bid. 1-4 vs. the RPI top 50.
34. Virginia Tech - Losses at Richmond, Old Dominion, and Penn St. 0-5 vs. the RPI top 50.
35. South Alabama - 0-2 vs. the RPI top 50, 2-1 vs. RPI 50-100. The Jaguars have nice wins over Miss. St. and W. Kentucky, but lost at N. Texas. The problem for S. Alabama is that if they lose in the conference tournament it will most likely add a second "bad" loss to their resume.
36. Seton Hall - 1-7 vs. the RPI top 50 suggests that they aren't a tournament team.
37. Davidson - 0-4 vs. RPI top 50, 1-1 vs RPI 50-100
38. Oral Roberts - 0-3 vs. RPI top 50, 1-1 vs. RPI 50-100.
39. Western Kentucky - No wins vs. RPI top 100.

Tuesday Night in College Basketball

Tuesday was a pretty slow night in the land of the bubble, but there were several games with seeding implications.

In the Big East there were three games and three blowouts. Marquette, Pittsburgh, and Louisville all won handily over Seton Hall, Providence, and DePaul respectively. None of the wins will likely do a whole lot for those teams but Seton Hall and Providence might have been dealt their death blows.

In the “close game” category, Butler escaped in overtime over Wisconsin Milwaukee and North Carolina won by one over Virginia. Butler avoided a not great loss and finished off their three game road trip at 3-0. North Carolina showed again that they could benefit from the return of Ty Lawson. Of North Carolina’s last three wins the only one that didn’t require at least one overtime was this one point win over the worst team in the ACC.

In a big match up in the Big 10 Purdue maintained their lead in the conference by knocking off Michigan State. Purdue’s current 10 game winning streak was going to be good enough to get them a bid but at this point their computer numbers don’t look so bad and they’re 11-1 in the (admittedly bad) Big 10. Their seed is going to look pretty nice with some more good play. Although Michigan State’s at large bid is still secure, they are in danger of falling to fourth in the pecking order in the Big 10 (if they aren’t there already).

It was funny to start to read about how we need to start keeping an eye on Kentucky (yes, I am guilty as well) only to have them lose by 80 gabillion points at Vanderbilt. After a rough 1-4 five game stretch Vanderbilt has now won four in a row and they’ll host a Florida team that has beaten them by 22 on Saturday.

UNLV avoided tripping up at home against Air Force. They are still a game back of BYU in the Mountain West but they get a chance at BYU in a huge match up this Saturday.

It was not a real busy day but tomorrow figures to be eventful. Enjoy!

Another Look at the Bubble

I was looking at my last Bubble Watch and decided I would like to look at it another way. Looking at this conference-by-conference makes it easier to read and look at. However, as we all know teams earn bids, not conferences. So, I’ve decided to reanalyze that post to examine approximately where the cut line would run. The following conferences had no teams on the last Bubble Watch:

1. America East
2. Atlantic Sun
3. Big Sky
4. Big South
5. Big West
6. Ivy League
7. Metro Atlantic Athletic
8. Mid-American
9. Mid-Eastern
10. Northeast
11. Ohio Valley
12. Patriot League
13. Southland
14. Southwestern Athletic
15. Western Athletic

In addition I am going to assume Butler, Davidson, and Oral Roberts win their respective automatic bids to add the following conferences as one bid leagues:

16. Horizon
17. Southern
18. Summit

All teams that I labeled as “Locks” or “Should be ins” I am giving a bid. The following conferences have at least one team on the “Locks” or “Should be ins” line”:

19. ACC
20. Atlantic 10
21. Big East
22. Big 10
23. Big 12
24. Conference USA
25. Missouri Valley
26. Pac 10
27. SEC
28. West Coast

That leaves the Colonial, Mountain West, and Sun Belt as conferences with more than one bubble team that must steal a bid. Now I will list all of the teams listed as “Locks” and “Should be ins” in order they were listed on my last Bubble Watch. 1-18 on this list go to the automatic bids listed above. Therefore, this list will start at 19.

19. Duke
20. North Carolina
21. Clemson
22. Georgetown
23. Notre Dame
24. Louisville
25. Connecticut
26. Pittsburgh
27. Marquette
28. Michigan State
29. Indiana
30. Purdue
31. Wisconsin
32. Ohio State
33. Kansas
34. Kansas State
35. Texas
36. Baylor
37. Texas A&M
38. UCLA
39. Stanford
40. Washington State
41. Arizona
42. USC
43. Tennessee
44. Vanderbilt
45. Xavier
46. St. Joe’s
47. Rhode Island
48. Memphis
49. Drake
50. Butler
51. St. Mary’s
52. Gonzaga

That means 13 more bids to go amongst the “Work left to do” group. I’m not going to rank these teams because I still feel like it’s awfully early but I’m looking at this group as the bubble and if you root for one of these teams you probably want to get in the top 10 of this group (considering that, as I mentioned, the Colonial, Mountain West, and the Sun Belt will each be grabbing one of the available bids). Anyway, here is the bubble.

1. Maryland
2. NC State
3. Miami
4. Wake Forest
5. Georgia Tech
6. Virginia Tech
7. Florida State
8. Boston College
9. Syracuse
10. West Virginia
11. Seton Hall
12. Villanova
13. Oklahoma
14. Oregon
15. Arkansas
16. Florida
17. Mississippi State
18. Mississippi
19. Kentucky
20. Dayton
21. Massachusetts
22. Virginia Commonwealth
23. George Mason
24. Houston
25. Illinois State
26. Creighton
27. Brigham Young
28. UNLV
29. Davidson
30. Oral Roberts
31. South Alabama
32. Western Kentucky

We’d appreciate any feedback on a possible ranking of these bubble teams. Also math is not my strong suit; please let me know if you can catch a flaw in my math.

BJL's Top 25 BlogPoll Entry

Bizarro Joe Lunardi has joined the world of bloggers that put together the weekly Top 25 BlogPoll. The poll will be released later this week (honestly we’re new to this whole thing so we don’t know exactly how it works) and we will discuss it upon its release. You can catch our Top 25 entry below. Comments, as always, are appreciated!

1. Duke
2. Kansas
3. Memphis
4. North Carolina
5. Tennessee
6. UCLA
7. Stanford
8. Xavier
9. Texas
10. Georgetown
11. Connecticut
12. Kansas State
13. Michigan State
14. Louisville
15. St. Mary’s
16. Notre Dame
17. Indiana
18. Butler
19. Purdue
20. Drake
21. Washington State
22. Wisconsin
23. Baylor
24. Texas A&M
25. Pittsburgh