I’m not going to waste much on an intro here because it’s a long post about today’s games with NCAA tournament implications on and off the bubble. What a Saturday though!
VCU 57 – Akron 52
Going into today neither of these teams likely were going to have a shot at a bid but VCU was more likely than Akron. This game keeps VCU alive as they could have a chance if they make a run in the CAA tournament and everything else falls just right around them. It seems likely that VCU should try to take the automatic bid anyway.
Connecticut 65 – Villanova 67
Villanova has tossed themselves right back on the bubble and if they can win their next game, at home against Marquette, they’ll likely be sitting on the right side of the bubble. It was just a huge win for Villanova. Connecticut’s hopes for a Big East title took a beating today but they’re not dead yet because the rest of their conference schedule is pretty easy.
Cincinnati 53 – Georgetown 73
Cincinnati has actually played pretty well in conference play so I’m actually impressed with the ease of this victory.
Maryland 63 – Miami 78
Miami is now on a huge four game winning streak and they’re in pretty good position to get a bid. Maryland has now lost two in a row and their next two games are @Wake Forest and Clemson. If they drop them both they could be done. This was one of the bigger bubble games of the day.
New Mexico 72 – Utah 69
New Mexico now has a manageable RPI and their next two games are at home against BYU and UNLV. If they can hold serve at home they’d likely be in pretty good position to grab a bid. Keep an eye on the Lobos. This was a huge win for them today. Utah isn’t great this year but winning on in Salt Lake City still is not easy.
Rutgers 48 – Marquette 78
Any other result would be stunning.
Iowa 52 – Michigan State 66
Hey, this is nearly twice as many points as Michigan State scored in Iowa City! The game was never close as Michigan State jumped out to a huge 20-1 early lead.
Arkansas 58 – Kentucky 63
With every win it’s getting harder to ignore Kentucky and their RPI is slowly going from horrendous to embarrassing to horrible to now where it’s merely really bad. I don’t think Kentucky will have much to worry about if they can hold serve at home and win at South Carolina; their RPI will take some big leaps if they can beat Mississippi and Florida at home. They’re looking at possibly 18-11 going into the SEC tournament and that would put them in good shape. Billy Gillespie has put together an incredible mid-season turnaround thanks to being in a pretty bad conference. Arkansas would have been in terrific shape with a win today and even with the loss they’re OK but they may need to win 3 of 4 to end the year and I’m not sure they’re capable of it.
Georgia Tech 84 – Virginia Tech 92
Virginia Tech is still clearly on the wrong side of the bubble. However, they are 7-6 in the ACC and they have two more home games before a season finale at Clemson. If they can hold serve at home and pull off the upset at Clemson it’d be real hard to keep them out. The Hokies are alive.
Creighton 65 – Oral Roberts 64
Oral Roberts was probably dead already but Booker Woodfox’s three was a final dagger into their at large hopes. I still expect Oral Roberts to get in and I would not be surprised if a lot more of the country knows about Robert Jarvis in a month.
Oklahoma 45 – Texas 62
Oklahoma is now only .500 in conference. They should be able to win at least 3 of their final 4 and that should be enough but the Sooners have to be considered on the bubble right now. Texas has got to be one of the more underrated teams in the country, particularly by me. I’m starting to come around but this team is almost never one you hear about as a possible national title contender and you rarely even hear about them as a potential one seed. At this point it would be an upset for them not to be a one seed.
Oregon 65 – UCLA 75
Oregon’s at large hopes would have been so much stronger with a win at Pauley. OK, that’s really obvious, but instead as it stands there’s a good chance they’ll need to win their final three games to even be in the picture. That’s possible but there hasn’t been a lot in Oregon’s play this year to suggest it’s likely.
Georgia 74 – Vanderbilt 86
I would have been surprised by anything but this. Vanderbilt has a huge chance for a statement win at home Tuesday against the Vols.
St. John’s 56 – Duke 86
This is not interesting.
Nebraska 65 – Texas A&M 59
With this loss I’m officially guessing that Texas A&M is a favorite to win this season’s NIT. With a 6-6 conference record, a poor RPI, and a finishing schedule of Texas Tech, @Oklahoma, @Baylor, and Kansas, I don’t see them taking even two of these games. Obviously this means the opportunity is still there for the Aggies to cement their bid with some huge wins but I don’t see a lot of evidence to suggest that will happen. They’ve lost their last two home games to Oklahoma State and Nebraska!
Mississippi State 61 – South Carolina 56
This was a huge overtime win for Mississippi State. They’ll probably be in good shape if they just take their two home games (Auburn and LSU) but if they can add a win at Vanderbilt or Florida to that mix they’ll be in easily. This is still a bubble team but they’re probably on the right side of the bubble right now. They should join Kentucky in the “I’m really thankful that the SEC is bad” club.
Kansas 60 – Oklahoma State 61
What? What happened? Oklahoma State? Really? This might have blown Kansas’s chance at a one seed. That’s probably a bit too strong, but they probably need to win the rest of their games until Selection Sunday.
UNLV 73 – Wyoming 65
UNLV avoided a bad loss and now have 3 of their last 4 at home. That one road game at New Mexico will be huge.
Drake 71 – Butler 64
This might have been the most enjoyable game I’ve watched all year. Butler is still solid and I don’t think anyone will want to play them in March but Drake is clearly in that category as well (unless the mind-numbingly dumb Hubert Davis gets his way and Drake fails to even make it in). That alley-oop to Leonard Houston was one of the prettier plays I’ve seen this year. Josh Young was obviously fantastic but I loved the play of Drake’s Adam Emmenecker (despite a boatload of turnovers) and Butler’s Matt Howard. Hopefully Drake begins getting the credit they deserve.
By the way, any Butler fans that might be reading would be well advised to stop whining about every call. Whining about obvious calls makes you seem less credible when you whine about the genuinely poor calls. Over the course of the game there were several questionable calls in Drake’s favor but Butler also had a 4-5 possession stretch with a questionable call/no-call on each possession that all went Butler’s way. The whining and throwing things on the floor took a little away from an otherwise outstanding game that Drake clearly deserved to win. (That’s right Butler fans; get over yourselves. Just enjoy the great team that you get to root for.)
Arizona State 77 – Washington 63
My goodness that was a massive win for Arizona State. Now they return home for two against UCLA and USC. Taking one would be awfully big as they are still suffering from horrible computer numbers. The Sun Devils are squarely on the bubble now but things should get clarified some in their final four regular season games considering the competition they will face.
Mississippi 49 – LSU 69
Remember when Mississippi was 15-1 and their lone loss was by two at Tennessee? I remember watching that Mississippi-Tennessee game and deciding there that the Rebels were for real; they were battling in Knoxville. Geez, since then they are 3-7 and one of those wins was against the powerhouse Presbyterian (only by 11, by the way). This was a real beatdown. You would be kind to include Mississippi in bubble talk at this point.
Providence 53 – West Virginia 80
West Virginia couldn’t afford to lose this game and they really didn’t come close. Providence is not this bad so I’m moderately impressed by the ease of this victory.
Rice 62 – Houston 71
Houston must have slept-walked through this game because Rice is horrible. Still they avoided the horrible loss and they’re still alive.
Indiana 85 – Northwestern 82
Man, for Indiana to only win by 3 I would have guessed they would have had to be distracted and play as though there was something else on their minds. Otherwise I don’t understand this game being this close.
Kansas State 92 – Baylor 86
So, it turns out that Michael Beasley is good at basketball but this was a tough loss for Kansas State. If the season ended now they’d be in great shape but the problem is the season does not end now and now they get Texas and a trip to Lawrence. I wouldn’t say they need to win one of those but it would be awfully nice. Baylor absolutely needed this win. They are once again in OK shape especially considering none of their final 4 games are unwinnable.
Oregon State 53 – USC 81
This is apparently a huge win for USC because the Beavers are pretty positive that they’re no where near as bad their record and they want to fight.
LA Monroe 75 – Western Kentucky 86
Calling Western Kentucky on the bubble is likely generous but I’ll keep an eye on them until they lose again.
UAB 73 – SMU 59
UAB is alive but they still might need a big win to put on their resume. If they can win their next four then their season finale at Mempis will be huge.
Tennessee 66 – Memphis 62
This really was a fantastic game and I would not be disappointed if I get to see it again. I’m still stunned, however, at how bad Memphis is at shooting free throws. I know it’s nothing new but they are really, really bad at free throws. I might go out on a little limb and say that if these teams were to meet again Tennessee would win a bit easier, maybe by double digits. That first half shooting performance by Memphis was impressive and I think more impressive than is normal. Even then they did not have a big lead. I should add that this game probably did convince me that I’ve been underrating Derrick Rose. I had not been sold him much before but he really is solid. I’m still not completely convinced he’s one of the nation’s top 5 freshmen, however.
Arizona 65 – Washington State 55
It’s hard to describe how huge this was for Arizona. Watching the second half of this game, Arizona definitely looks like an NCAA tournament team and a pretty good one at that. Then again, they have lost a ton of games (granted, against a ridiculous schedule). I refuse to say Arizona is in the tournament yet because their schedule to finish up is not easy but this game might be the difference between probably in and probably out. I’m going to go ahead and say it now and that is I don’t see much from Washington State this year. We’ll see how they finish out this year but I could see them drawing a seed where they’ll get a losable first round game and if I had to bet on whether they would or would not make the second weekend, right now I don’t see them making it.
BYU 65 – San Diego State 69
San Diego State is not bad so this wasn’t a horrible loss for BYU and they can survive it and still get an at large bid. However, their lead in the Mountain West is now much more tenuous and they need to travel to New Mexico Tuesday in a gigantic game. I think they can survive one loss on this two game road trip but I’d be less confident with dropping both games.
Kent State 65 – St. Mary’s 57
Kent State looked really comfortable early but then the Gael defense really took over for a good stretch of time. That really was a fantastic performance by Al Fisher, particularly that reverse lay-in with a little under a minute to play. This really might have been a must win for the Golden Flashes, and what a gutty performance they put together. Kent State’s chances at an large bid went from unlikely to there’s a pretty good shot. St. Mary’s should still be OK for an at large bid but their San Diego rematch on Monday just got a lot more important.
