A "Saturday Always Leads to Really Long College Basketball Reviews" College Basketball Review

Obviously there was a lot of action today so let’s get to the games.

Duke 87 – N.C. State 86

As far as keeping hopes for a one seed alive, this was a big win. At the same time, Duke is not playing great basketball and one seed or not may be irrelevant.

Pittsburgh 82 – Syracuse 77

You’re at home, shoot nearly 60% from the floor, have a double digit lead with about 4 minutes left and you lose. Man, Jim Boeheim is a douchebag. I think he’s either a living example of what your mom probably told you that if you whine a lot your face could get stuck that way or he just whines more than anyone on the planet. Watching this program get dropped off the bubble is quite satisfying.

West Virginia 71 – Connecticut 79

Despite this loss West Virginia is still in pretty good shape but things could get dicey again if they lose at home to Pitt. At least at this point Connecticut is still third behind Louisville and Georgetown in the Big East seeding pecking order but they should still be looking at a pretty nice seed.

Kent State 83– Bowling Green 89

I didn’t think Kent State would win out in the regular season but I figured they’d likely lose at Akron. I think the Golden Flashes are still alive for an at large bid but obviously they lost a lot of leeway here. They may now need to win out until the MAC title game and at the very least their season finale at Akron becomes very big.

Virginia 93 – Miami 95

It seems as though a lot of defense was played in this game. Miami is in terrific shape with this win. I figure if they can take one of their next two their in and they still have a chance to play themselves into a decent seed (not that there is really much of a difference between a 10 and a 7 seed).

Georgetown 70 – Marquette 68

Those were three clutch free throws for Jonathan Wallace and that was quite a comeback for Georgetown. This game obviously has no implications as far as bids go but for seeding it may mean quite a bit for Georgetown. It also pushes Marquette closer to the bubble teams (although still clearly in) than the league leaders.

Texas A&M 37 – Oklahoma 64

Come on Aggies. Really? Ten first half points? After a rough road trip this was a much needed win for Oklahoma; I think they may have fallen on the outside of the bubble with a loss. But Texas A&M needed this too and they just didn’t show up. Now they have to travel to Baylor before getting Kansas at home and I certainly don’t trust them to take either.

Rhode Island 91 – La Salle 85

Rhode Island is a loss away from not being looked at in these daily wrap-ups but it looks like I’ll have to take a peek at them for their finale against Charlotte. If they take that they’ll get to .500 in the conference and they could likely still get back in the at large picture with a big A-10 tournament run.

Northwestern 43 – Purdue 68

Surprisingly Northwestern actually hung around for a half but then Purdue ran away in the second half. An Ohio State and Michigan road trip awaits Purdue. They’ll need to sweep the road trip to stay alive in the Big 10 race.

Wichita State 63 – Drake 73

So, the scenario I described the other day in which three straight losses to end the year could put them on the bubble after they lost to Missouri State will not happen. Drake is safely in as they head to St. Louis. Their seeding in the NCAA tournament will be interesting, as they’ll likely get under-seeded.

Wake Forest 79 – Georgia Tech 87

Oh Wake Forest needed this game to stay alive and they were able to take it to overtime before falling. I suppose theoretically they could be alive with wins at Virginia Tech and then N.C. State at home, but there is still not much there outside of conference (other than the BYU win).

Detroit 31 – Butler 65

So, this game was not close. Butler has wrapped up the Horizon League and can attempt to grab their automatic bid at Hinkle.

USC 66 – Arizona State 80

Despite the loss USC was able to pick put up a win on the road trip and they’re in great shape. Arizona State is now in pretty good shape and one more win would likely be good for them. Considering they still have a game at Oregon state things are looking good for them.

North Carolina 90 – Boston College 80

Maybe if Tyrese Rice had scored 70 points Boston College would have been able to win.

Seton Hall 62 – St. John’s 65

I had decided that if Villanova was a bubble team then Seton Hall had to be too. Well, this should do it.

Memphis 76 – Southern Miss 67

Derrick Rose had two fouls by midway through the first half and Southern Miss was able to stay in the game. Then, even with Rose back Southern Miss was in pretty good control of the game until about the 7 minute mark when Memphis decided to make 100% of their shots. If Memphis hits their typical 58% from the line instead of 71% this game could have been different. Memphis escaped in this one.

Washington State 53 – Stanford 60

This was a game Stanford needed to stay in second in the pecking order in the Pac 10 but this game realistically didn’t mean a ton for these two teams.

Missouri 89 – Baylor 100

Three straight wins has put Baylor in great shape. Their midweek game against Texas A&M could lock up a bid but the Bears are already looking good.

Texas 80 – Texas Tech 83

After this win I’ll be willing to listen to arguments that Texas Tech could be on the bubble if they win in Lawrence. Obviously that’s unlikely. Texas gets to return to Austin now for a couple of relatively easy games and they should be in good shape for a share of the Big 12 title.

Mississippi State 68 – Florida 59

Mississippi State is probably in and even if they lose at Vanderbilt I figure they’re definitely in even with a home win against LSU. This was a big win for the Bulldogs. Florida is in trouble. A win against Tennessee would do wonders for the resume but I don’t think they have it in them.

Ohio State 57 – Minnesota 71

This is just a horrible loss. It’s not that losing at Minnesota is embarrassing but it’s just that Ohio State was in desperate need of a win. Now Ohio State may need to win both of their final games, both at home against Purdue and Michigan State.

Vanderbilt 73 – Arkansas 78

What a huge win for Arkansas. They are now in terrific shape to grab a bid. Vanderbilt is obviously in but I imagine they are a team that the committee could under-seed.

Washington 87– California 84

I looked at Cal’s schedule and decided if they won their final four games they’d be in good shape. Granted, that would include wins at UCLA and at USC so it was basically impossible. Now even that shouldn’t be enough.

Houston 83 – East Carolina 84

Teams likely on the wrong side of the bubble with a severe lack of quality wins shouldn’t be losing to sub-250 RPI teams. This was a killer.

Buffalo 56 – Akron 76

Akron is better than their horrible RPI number and I’m keeping an eye on them mostly because they still have another chance for a big win over Kent State. A win at Ohio wouldn’t be shabby either. I don’t think there is much hope anyway though.

Western Kentucky 88 – Florida Atlantic 78

Any slim chance Western Kentucky has is still alive.

TCU 55 – UNLV 74

With a home win over a bad TCU team UNLV can get ready for their huge road trip at New Mexico. The Rebels are probably in as of now but they may need to take that game to stay that way.

Dayton 57 – Fordham 50

The RPI still isn’t bad. If they can get back to 8-8 in the A-10 we can talk.

George Washington 56 – Xavier 66

The Musketeers just keep winning. Try to keep this team out of your favorite team’s way later this month.

VCU 54 – William & Mary 43

VCU has wrapped up the Colonial and now likely needs to make a run to the final to have a shot at the at large. They also should be good enough to not need it.

Harvard 53 – Cornell 86

One down, 64 to go! Congratulations to the Big Red!

Massachusetts 78 – Richmond 74

It’s starting to look like we may have another team in the A-10 (besides Xavier) that would like to get to the NCAA tournament. Wins versus La Salle and at George Washington should do it.

South Alabama 74 – Florida International 55

South Alabama avoided the bad loss that could have ended their at large hopes. Now they get to stay at home for the conference tournament.

Ohio 49 – Miami 73

I decided to be kind and keep an eye on this game by saying that Ohio was still alive. Well, no more.

Davidson 89 – Georgia Southern 69

The 20-0 record in the Southern conference is complete and it’s time for Davidson to lock up their automatic bid in the conference tournament.

St. Mary’s 76 – Gonzaga 88

Nice win for Gonzaga that should wrap up the WCC regular season title. Assuming St. Mary’s can win at Portland they should still be fine for a bid.

Tulane 44 – UAB 69

With Houston losing today and UAB winning UAB went from probably ahead of Houston in the pecking order anyway to being the only non-Memphis CUSA team in a pecking order. A win next weekend at Memphis would lock up a bid.

Illinois State 57 – Southern Illinois 49

This was a gigantic game for Illinois State. The winner of this game kept their hopes alive for an at large berth if they could get to the MVC title game and now Illinois State has a clear advantage over SIU. They swept the Salukis and took second place by 2 games over SIU. This Illinois State team is a quality club.

Air Force 57 – BYU 76

Another win for BYU in a win that should continue their run to a 14-2 MWC winning record.

Kansas State 74 – Kansas 88

Four losses in a row for Kansas State is tough but it hasn’t kept them out of the at large picture. I think they’re still clearly in provided they avoid bad losses. None of these four losses has been particularly bad (in retrospect, maybe even that Nebraska loss wasn’t too embarrassing). This was a critical win for Kansas in their hopes for a one seed.

A Waste of Everybody's Time

So, I looked at all the possible at large candidates and was trying to figure out a way to rank them. In doing so I ended up with 67 teams. I also figured that there are 15 conferences that are definitely one-bid leagues. So, that leaves 50 bids for these teams keeping in mind that bids can be stolen in some conferences so there would not be a clean break after 50.

Here’s where it gets embarrassing. I debated even posting this because I admit it’s pretty stupid but here it goes anyway. I was using www.realtimerpi.com and you’ll notice that they use little symbols to indicate good wins and bad losses. I think “$$” indicates a top 25 win and “$” indicates a 26-100 win. A “?” indicates a loss to a team ranked 101-200 and “??” indicates a loss to a team ranked 201 or worse. So, all I did is added up the total “$” (so “$$” just counts as two “$”) and subtracted all the “?”. And, as I said, this is really stupid because I realize it assumes a win at Purdue is the same as a home win over Niagara and a loss at Minnesota is the same as a home loss to Morehead State. So, yes, this is stupid and was a waste of my time, but my time was wasted so I decided to post this anyway. I ranked teams by “$-?” and with ties I ordered them by total “$” and then by RPI. I threw SOS on their for good measure but it had nothing to do with the rankings. Here it is. (I apologize for the formatting but I played with this for 20 minutes or so and couldn't figure it out.)

Teams RPI SOS Total $ Total ? $-?

1. North Carolina 3 5 19 0 19

2. Duke 5 12 18 0 18

3. UCLA 8 33 18 1 17

4. Texas 4 3 16 0 16

5. Tennessee 1 2 15 0 15

6. Memphis 2 15 15 0 15

7. Louisville 12 8 15 0 15

8. Xavier 6 17 14 0 14

9. Connecticut 13 20 14 1 13

10. Stanford 20 99 13 0 13

11. Kansas 9 67 12 0 12

12. Marquette 15 23 12 0 12

13. Notre Dame 19 53 12 0 12

14. Arizona 21 1 12 2 10

15. Vanderbilt 7 37 10 0 10

16. Pittsburgh 25 29 11 2 9

17. Georgetown 10 56 9 0 9

18. Wisconsin 11 38 9 0 9

19. Indiana 17 69 9 0 9

20. Washington State 22 52 9 0 9

21. Texas A&M 42 80 9 0 9

22. Miami 26 25 10 2 8

23. USC 34 21 10 2 8

24. Arizona State 74 62 10 2 8

25. Drake 14 74 9 1 8

26. Butler 18 118 8 0 8

27. Kansas State 43 19 8 0 8

28. Dayton 37 22 10 3 7

29. Michigan State 16 47 9 2 7

30. Purdue 27 91 9 2 7

31. Clemson 23 27 8 1 7

32. BYU 24 89 8 1 7

33. St. Mary’s 31 142 8 1 7

34. Oklahoma 32 9 8 1 7

35. Baylor 33 42 7 0 7

36. Cal 83 40 7 0 7

37. Villanova 63 50 9 3 6

38. Oregon 61 13 8 2 6

39. UNLV 29 81 7 1 6

40. Gonzaga 35 108 6 0 6

41. West Virginia 36 58 6 0 6

42. Wake Forest 76 78 8 3 5

43. Massachusetts 38 48 7 2 5

44. Maryland 59 16 7 2 5

45. Florida State 70 32 7 2 5

46. Syracuse 51 11 6 1 5

47. Southern Illinois 40 10 9 5 4

48. Kent State 28 134 8 4 4

49. Mississippi State 41 64 4 0 4

50. St. Joseph’s 55 85 6 3 3

51. Kentucky 56 14 6 3 3

52. New Mexico 57 146 5 2 3

53. Florida 50 113 4 1 3

54. Arkansas 45 54 7 5 2

55. Illinois State 39 83 6 4 2

56. Ohio State 49 30 4 2 2

57. Rhode Island 66 104 4 2 2

58. Seton Hall 67 49 3 1 2

59. Houston 64 139 2 0 2

60. Virginia Tech 65 51 4 3 1

61. South Alabama 30 133 3 2 1

62. UAB 54 114 5 5 0

63. VCU 46 145 4 4 0

64. Western Kentucky 53 156 1 1 0

65. Ohio 58 107 5 6 -1

66. Akron 94 187 4 6 -2

67. Davidson 44 151 0 2 -2

Week 16 BlogPoll

Week 16 BlogPoll

Last week I posted the BlogPoll on Friday and said that I should start posting it up earlier considering this poll is based on games through Monday night. So, naturally I waited until Friday afternoon to post this again. Anyway, here was Bizarro Joe Lunardi’s entry:

1. North Carolina
2. Tennessee
3. Duke
4. Texas
5. Memphis
6. Xavier
7. UCLA
8. Stanford
9. Kansas
10. Louisville
11. Notre Dame
12. Vanderbilt
13. Wisconsin
14. Washington State
15. Georgetown
16. Clemson
17. Connecticut
18. Purdue
19. Indiana
20. St. Mary’s
21. Drake
22. Butler
23. Michigan State
24. Marquette
25. Kent State

And here is the BlogPoll (and you can click here for each blog’s entry as well as links to the other blogs).

1. Tennessee
2. Memphis
3. North Carolina
4. Texas
5. UCLA
6. Duke
7. Kansas
8. Xavier
9. Stanford
10. Louisville
11. Georgetown
12. Wisconsin
13. Drake
14. Indiana
15. Notre Dame
16. Connecticut
17. Butler
18. Purdue
19. Washington State
20. Michigan State
21. Marquette
22. Vanderbilt
23. Clemson
24. St. Mary’s
25. Gonzaga

Like last week, I’m not going to go in depth comparing our entry with the final poll results but I will list teams that we like more and teams we like less than the rest of the blogosphere. I am picking these out by arbitrarily deciding teams we either overranked or underranked compared to the BlogPoll by at least 5 spots.

We Like More

Vanderbilt

Washington State

Clemson

We Like Less

Indiana

Drake

Butler

Thoughts?

Thursday's College Basketball Review

Let's get to the games!

Notre Dame 85 – Louisville 90

With this win, Louisville and Georgetown are each one win away from setting up a massive season finale at Georgetown. This likely takes Notre Dame out of the race for the Big East title but they should still be looking at a solid NCAA tournament seed.

Saint Louis 64 – St. Joseph’s 55

Unbelievable. Just when St. Joe’s was looking like a fairly safe bet to reach the NCAA tournament they drop a game at home to Saint Louis. With a final schedule with home games against Temple and Xavier before a trip to Dayton, St. Joe’s has their opportunity to either take that bid or continue to throw it away. It’s not over yet for St. Joe’s but this was a horrible loss.

Maryland 74 – Wake Forest 70

This was a huge win for Maryland and they can maybe lock up a bid if they win at home against Clemson this weekend. On the other hand, this was a loss Wake Forest could not afford. Now they hit the road for a couple of games and they might need to take both.

New Orleans 61 – South Alabama 81

South Alabama keeps their hopes at an at large buffer if needed alive with this win. I am confused by this season for New Orleans. I think their talent is quite a bit better than their record.

Wright State 61 – Butler 66

If Wright State had pulled the upset at Butler I would have had to start keeping an eye on them as a possible at large team. It still would have been unlikely but it would have been possible. Instead Butler picks up a decent win and avenges an earlier loss. This was a good bounce back after the loss to Drake. The Horizon is now locked up and they’d probably get in the tournament even if they lost their remaining games.

USC 70 – Arizona 58

This home loss for Arizona makes the win at Washington State even bigger. Still, now they are under .500 in conference and UCLA comes to town this weekend. I’m not convinced that Arizona gets in the tournament if they finish the season 1-2 and lose their first conference tournament game, despite the great computer numbers. USC, on the other hand, has just about wrapped up a bid and they’re looking at potentially locking up a pretty good seed.

Michigan State 42 – Wisconsin 57

I’m not going to say I don’t think Michigan State is a tournament team, but I’d be pretty stunned if they end up getting past the first weekend. I just don’t think this team is very good. They have a lot of trouble scoring points sometimes. It looks likely that Wisconsin is going to go undefeated against Pac 10 teams not named Purdue. The Badgers are looking at a pretty good seed.

Washington 79 – Stanford 82

Stanford picks up another win and they are clearly the second best team in the Pac 10 and their seeding in the NCAA tournament should reflect that. That said, they do not have the second highest ceiling in the Pac 10 and I could see other teams ranked below them advancing further in March.

UCLA 70 – Arizona State 49

It’s hard to criticize a team for losing to UCLA and I can’t really do that for Arizona State. However, that does mean that their game against USC coming up this weekend is essentially a must win game. They at least must win either their home game against USC or the game at Oregon and then assume they will win their finale in Corvallis.

Washington State 70 – California 49

I was all ready to discuss whether Cal was getting back in the at large picture and then they lose by a ton against Washington State. If Cal wins out we can talk again, but considering they finish at home against Washington and then @USC and @UCLA that seems pretty unlikely. It was possible if Washington State lost this game that they could slip behind USC in the Pac 10 pecking order. As it stands now that seems unlikely.

Bubble Rankings - 2/29

Things are happening quickly and that means the Bubble Rankings need to be updated more than once a week.  As much as things are changing, one thing remains the same; bubble teams keep losing, as ten of the top 15 have already lost games this week.  On the other end of the spectrum, USC has moved off the bubble with their win at Arizona.  As for rest of the bubble, things seem to be getting more muddled.  Right now, I'm feeling fairly confident that the top 11 teams in the rankings will receive bids barring a collapse.  After that though, I could see any of the teams in ranked 12 and below receving a bid or being left out.

1. Kansas State

2. Arizona

3. Baylor

4. West Virginia

5. Mississippi St.

6. Oklahoma

7. UMass

8. Miami (FL)

9. Maryland

10. UNLV

11. BYU

12. Arkansas

13. Villanova

14. Arizona St.

15. Oregon

16. Wake Forest

17. Florida

18. St. Joe's

19. Kentucky

20. Syracuse

21. Kent St.

22. Houston

23. Davidson

24. Ohio St.

25. Virginia Commonwealth

26. South Alabama

27. Western Kentucky

A Shout-out to Basketball Prospectus

Josh and I are both regular readers of Basketball Prospectus, and if you're taking the time to read our blog, then you should probably be too. I'm actually quite surprised that neither of us have mention BP in the past. For those of you completely unfamiliar with BP, their analysis is based on advanced statistical analysis but it is presented in a manner that does not require a deep understanding of the statistics used. Chances are many of you are familiar with Ken Pomeroy and he is one of the contributors to BP. Here's a look at some of the recent articles from BP:

The Case for Davidson - Ken Pomeroy takes a look at the tournament resume of Davidson

Conference Check - Rankings of the teams in the "major" conferences based on BP statistics

Shot Selection - Probably one of the most interesting things I've read lately on BP. Ken Pomeroy looks at the "death" of the mid-range jumpshot.

Enjoy! And we'd be more than happy to discuss anything that you find interesting over at BP.

Wednesday Night College Basketball Night in Review

Let's get to the games!

Appalachian State 55 – Davidson 68

Not that Appalachian State is anything special but they are one of the better teams in the Southern Conference so winning handily was a good idea for Davidson. Then again, any loss would be killer.

North Carolina Wilmington 58 – VCU 72

VCU is a win away from wrapping up the regular season and their chances for an at large bid still exist. They still cannot avoid a slip up.

Kansas 75 – Iowa State 64

Believe it or not Kansas had lost 3 of their last 4 road games with the only win being Colorado. Obviously Iowa State is nothing special but for Kansas it probably feels nice to get back in the win column on the road.

Cincinnati 67 – Pittsburgh 73

This was a big win for Pitt against a Cincinnati team that just did not quite want to go away. Still, if Pitt drops their next two games (@Syracuse and @West Virginia) then they’ll be setting themselves up for a situation in which they can lose their way out of contention at home against DePaul. Pitt is in good shape right now but they have to continue not to throw games away.

Western Kentucky 69 – Florida International 54

The last three games of Western Kentucky’s season are going to kill their already shady RPI. I am not convinced that they’d get a bid even if they win out and lose in the conference title game but they’re still worth keeping an eye on.

Florida 77 – Georgia 64

This was a huge game for Florida and they won convincingly. At this point they sit at 8-5 in the SEC and their next two games are at home. They are, however, against Mississippi State and Tennessee so it’s possible they could drop both. It seems likely that the season finale at Kentucky could be huge for this team. A loss today would have been devastating.

Miami 69 – Clemson 79

Not showing up in the first half was disturbing for Miami and now they’re below .500 in the ACC. They do get their next two games at home against below average competition so if they take both of them they’re still in good shape but a loss would make things very dicey. Clemson might have tripped onto the bubble with a home loss there but as it is they are in terrific shape for a bid.

Rhode Island 68 – George Washington 85

Four straight losses was bad enough and made things difficult for Rhode Island but adding this fifth straight loss in convincing fashion at George Washington might be too much to overcome. To have a prayer at a bid now they must win their next two and follow that with a conference tournament run.

Southern Miss 67 – Houston 95

Houston, despite the poor computer numbers, stays alive for now. They cannot afford another regular season slipup.

Texas Tech 54 – Texas A&M 98

OK, I’m not saying Texas Tech is any good or anything but the way the Aggies had been playing I can’t say I would have been shocked by another Texas A&M loss. Instead this happens. Well, a win was critical for Texas A&M. At 7-6 in the Big 12 with a final schedule of @Oklahoma, @ Baylor, and Kansas they still have work to do. They will not be favored in any of their remaining games but they cannot lose them all.

Tulsa 67 – Memphis 82

Memphis blew this game open in the first half and then cruised. They keep their one seed hopes alive.

Oklahoma 45 – Nebraska 63

Oklahoma is now an under .500 Big 12 team and that’s not going to cut it. The rest of their schedule is not too bad and Saturday’s home game against Texas A&M is huge. I am not sure they would be able to overcome a loss in that game.

Auburn 78 – Mississippi State 89

Mississippi State is now 10-3 in conference as they take off on a tough two game road swing at Florida and Vanderbilt. A win in either game likely would wrap up a bid and Mississippi State would stay alive even with losses in both games.

Arkansas 56 – Alabama 59

Ouch. That is now 4 losses in 5 games for Arkansas. They now face red-hot Vanderbilt at home and then travel to Ole Miss. 0-2 in those two is a possible scenario and that would put Arkansas out of the tournament, likely even with a season ending win versus Auburn.

Mississippi 54 – Kentucky 58

I’m really enjoying watching this Kentucky run. They jumped out to a huge lead early against Mississippi and the Rebels had a wide-open three to win the game on their final possession. Still, a win is a win and the Wildcats now get to 10-3 in SEC play with a gigantic game at Tennessee coming up on Sunday. I obviously don’t expect a win but a Kentucky win would nearly lock up a bid for the Wildcats.

Creighton 54 – Illinois State 68

Everyone has been saying that Drake is the only potential at large team in the Valley. Well, hold everything! With this win today, on Saturday the Redbirds travel to Carbondale for a massive top 40 RPI match-up against the Southern Illinois. I can still envision either Illinois State or Southern Illinois getting in the at large discussion. This seems like a huge long shot but imagine a scenario in which Illinois State beats SIU Saturday, Drake loses in the MVC semifinals to Creighton, and then Creighton beats Illinois State in the MVC title game. Well, obviously Drake would still be in and Creighton would have the automatic bid. Would Illinois State also be amongst the top 34 at large candidates? Obviously this would not happen in a vacuum so you cannot say for sure, but it’s possible.

West Virginia 85 – DePaul 73

This is exactly the type of game that a lot of bubble teams had been losing. Instead West Virginia picked up the road win and they really sit in pretty decent shape.

Minnesota 52 – Purdue 65

Purdue and Wisconsin are most in the driver’s seat in the Big 10 (Indiana is there too but they still have a trip to Michigan State on the schedule) and Purdue has those wins over Wisconsin. As long as they don’t trip up they could be OK (although they still have a bit of a tough one at Ohio State ahead of themselves).

Georgia Tech 58 – Duke 71

Predictably Duke has taken care of business at home but now they have to hit the road again to go to N.C. State and Virginia. On their last road trip they went 0-2 with losses to Wake Forest and Miami. The competition won’t be as good this time around but they’re going to need to take these games if they want a one seed.

St. John’s 52 – Georgetown 64

The Hoyas stay in good shape for the Big East title but finish with tough games @Marquette and Louisville.

UAB 88 – UTEP 81

This was a gigantic win for UAB. They now return home for a couple of easy wins before heading to Memphis. They may still need a Memphis win to get into the tournament but if that’s the case they likely have two opportunities. It’s also possible that if either UAB or Houston gets to face Memphis in the CUSA title game that whichever team that is could have a good case for an at large.

Baylor 68 – Colorado 57

Like West Virginia’s win at DePaul, Baylor picked up a road win that we should expect at large teams to pick up. It’s nothing all that impressive but it’s better than most bubble teams seem to have been pulling. They now return home for a couple of games where they may be able to make themselves pretty comfortable.

Tuesday College Basketball Review

Ohio State 69 – Indiana 72

The Buckeyes had lost 3 of 5 before entering the tough part of their schedule Sunday against Wisconsin. Well, the lack of wins is continuing with the loss to the Badgers and the loss today to Indiana. This weekend is nearing, if not, must-win status at Minnesota. Indiana, on the other hand, beat at least a decent team after the scare at Northwestern. The Hoosiers are still alive for the Big 10 title.

Southern Illinois 71 – Bradley 60

I have to start keeping an eye on Southern Illinois. The RPI is up to a respectable 39 due to a very strong SOS and they’re sitting at 11-6 in conference with a chance to at least tie for second in the conference behind Drake because if their season finale at home against second place Illinois State. If Illinois State trips up at home against Creighton SIU could have second place on their own with a win over the Redbirds. That, combined with what will be an ever improving RPI puts the Salukis right on the bubble. Three more wins (Illinois State, MVC quarterfinals, and MVC semifinals) would have to put them in the ballpark for an at large bid.

Boston College 48 – Virginia Tech 67

At 8-6 in the ACC the Hokies have to be taken seriously regardless of the RPI. Still, there is absolutely nothing to speak of as far as wins go in the non-conference. The best win there has to be St. John’s and that is not impressive. The committee could definitely ignore 8-8, they could likely ignore 9-7, but 10-6 would get hard to ignore. Win against Wake Forest and then at Clemson and there will likely be a bid available.

Connecticut 79 – Rutgers 61

Good teams don’t lose to Rutgers so UConn didn’t lose.

Drake 83 – Missouri State 86

I was having a discussion with a friend today about whether Drake would get an at large bid if they finished the year with a loss in this game, at home against Wichita State, and a first round MVC tournament loss. I decided I would still complain if they didn’t make it but that situation seemed farfetched. Now, of those games this was the most reasonable loss, even if it wasn’t great. Drake needs to decide to play defense, regardless of how efficient their offense is. Missouri State should not be shooting 60% from the floor against anyone. Beating Butler was good and all, but now they’ve lost 3 of 4 conference games.

Tennessee 69 – Vanderbilt 72

With this win Vanderbilt has now won 7 in a row and their profile is looking pretty good. Despite terrific computer numbers and a lack losses they’re still likely to finish third in the SEC East. How that will affect their seeding is an interesting question and I’m not sure I have an opinion of where they should be seeded right now. Tennessee should still be in good shape to grab a one seed. With three top 7 wins and a boatload of other quality wins their profile is still looking strong in a year in which teams aren’t making strong cases for one seeds.

San Diego State 58 – UNLV 68

UNLV’s RPI is definitely in a manageable range right now despite not having a lot of quality wins. This was a good win in a game where a loss would have been possible; San Diego State is not bad. However, for UNLV they cannot feel safe unless they pull off a victory at New Mexico next week (while avoiding bad home losses that sandwich that game). That said, I’m not sure that they need to win at New Mexico but it would certainly help out.

BYU 70 – New Mexico 69

This was a terrific win for BYU. They are now three wins over subpar competition away from locking up a bid. (I should clarify that by saying right now they are clearly in. However, their competition the rest of the way is so bad that a loss in any of the games would toss them right back on the bubble.) This was a game New Mexico likely needed to take. Fans of the Lobos have to be killing themselves right now because if they could have taken care of business at home against BYU and UNLV they would have been in great shape. As it stands now I’m not convinced a UNLV win would do it for them. They will need that plus a run in the tournament to stake a claim.

Chad vs. Joe Lunardi - Round 2

With my updated Bubble Rankings and Mr Lunardi's latest Bracketology, it's time for Round 2 of Chad vs. Joe Lunardi. Josh declared me the winner of Round 1 and I plan to win this one as well.

Chad's Seeds
12: Kent St., BYU, Florida, Oregon
11: Texas A&M, Maryland, UNLV, Wake Forest
10: Arizona St, Villanova, Miami (FL), St. Joe's
9: UMass, Syracuse, Arkansas, Baylor
8: Oklahoma, Mississippi St, Oklahoma, Arizona
7: Kansas St, USC

Lunardi's seeds
13: UAB
12: Davidson, New Mexico, Ohio St, Arizona St.
11: UMass, Florida, Maryland, Kent St.
10: St. Joe's, W. Virginia, UNLV, Miami (FL)
9: Texas A&M, S. Alabama, Baylor, Arkansas
8: St. Mary's, USC, Oklahoma, Mississippi St.
7: BYU, Washington St, Pitt, Arizona

We differ on a few teams; Lunardi has South Alabama, UAB, Davidson, New Mexico, and Ohio State in, while I have Syracuse, Oregon, Wake Forest and Villanova in. Here are my thoughts on these differences:

South Alabama - Not only does Lunardi include South Alabama in the tournament field, but he has them as a #9 seed. A win over Mississippi State and sweeping Western Kentucky is not enough to deserve a #9 seed, especially when you factor in losses to Middle Tennessee State and North Texas.

Ohio State - I said it last week and I will say it again, Ohio State is NOT a tournament team.

New Mexico - Their best win on the year is a home win over Texas Tech. The Lobos have upcoming games with UNLV and BYU, if they can win one of those then we can start looking at them as a tournament team.

UAB and Davidson - I can't really argue with Lunardi's inclusion of these teams as I have them just off the bubble.

Wake Forest - I discussed my inclusion of Wake Forest last week and I stand by what I said then. In fact, with Maryland's losses to Virginia Tech and Miami last week, it makes my point even stronger. How can Lunardi have Maryland in as a #10 seed and not even have Wake Forest listed in his "next 8 out"?

Oregon - I've been hesitant to drop Oregon in my rankings even though they have lost 3 straight. The reason for that is the losses have been at UCLA, at USC, and vs. Washington St. The problem is the losses are starting to overshadow their wins over K-State, Stanford and Arizona. I probably have the Ducks rated a little too high, but if they can finish the season with wins over Arizona, ASU, and Oregon St, then they will likely have done enough to earn a bid.

Syracuse - You know what? I think I'm wrong on Syracuse. Of their 7 wins in the Big East, only 2 have come against teams in the RPI top 100 (Georgetown and Villanova). They finish the year with Pitt, Seton Hall and Marquette; they will likely need to win two of those games to have a shot for an at-large bid.

Villanova - So I just admitted I was wrong on Syracuse, but you're not going to see me do it twice. The Wildcats picked up two very nice wins over UConn and West Virginia last week and they have a much easier finish to their schedule. A win at Louisville would be nice, but wins over South Florida and Providence will likely be enough.

Monday's College Basketball Action

After you read this quick review of the action Monday night, please check out Chad’s bubble team ranking right below this post.

Marquette 85 – Villanova 75

This was a nice win for Marquette but Villanova is in trouble. They now sit below .500 in conference and they must take a trip to Louisville. Obviously Villanova still has work to do.

Presbyterian 49 – South Alabama 64

South Alabama avoided an embarrassing loss and they remain in contention for an at large bid if needed.

Texas 74 – Kansas State 65

Don’t panic Kansas State fans. Although they have now lost three in a row (and four is likely with a trip to Lawrence coming up next), unlike last year 10-6 in conference should be good enough considering the weakness of the bubble. Take care of business at home against Colorado and at Iowa State and they should be fine. Texas just keeps on winning and they are putting themselves in fantastic position for a one seed.

San Diego 54 – St. Mary’s 61

St. Mary’s got their revenge on the Toreros. This was big not only to avoid a loss in the conference slate but back-to-back losses with a trip to Gonzaga on the horizon would have been bad news. Instead their bid is still secure.

Gonzaga 73 – Portland 51

Gonzaga is also in good shape and that home match up coming up against the Gaels should be fantastic. Hopefully it will be as good as round one was.

Bubble Rankings 2/25

Does anybody want to go to the NCAA tournament? Judging from the performances last week, it would appear the answer is no. Of the teams ranked in the top 20 of last week's Bubble Rankings only USC and Miami (Fl) won two games last week. USC's two wins moves them to the top of the rankings, while Miami's two wins puts them in serious contention for an at-large bid. Five of the top 20 lost two games last week: Texas A&M, Oregon, Maryland, Dayton and Rhode Island. In addition, Kansas State has moved towards the bubble with two road losses last week.

So here are the rankings.
1. USC - One win in Arizona this week will move the Trojans off the bubble.
2. Kansas State - K-State's stay on the bubble will be a short one if they can tonight as they host Texas.
3. Arizona - The loss at Washington keeps Arizona on the bubble. A win over one of the LA teams should lock up a bid.
4. West Virginia - If the Mountaineers will the games they should over the next two weeks (at. St. John's and at DePaul) they will be in.
5. Oklahoma - The win over Baylor was huge. Will 9-7 in the Big 12 be enough?
6. Mississippi St. - At 9-3 in the SEC, the Bulldogs will have to falter tremendously down the stretch to not get a bid.
7. Baylor - A tough loss to OU and a good win over K-State keeps the Bears right where they were last week.
8. Arkansas - The loss at UK won't hurt the Razorbacks much.
9. Syracuse - If the season ended today, the Orangemen would probably be in. But they could be in trouble if they can't win at home against Pitt or Marquette.
10. UMass - The Minutemen completed a sweep over URI and then avoided a bad loss against St. Bonaventure.
11. St. Joe's - The loss at La Salle drops St. Joe's to third in the A-10 pecking order, but they are still in good shape.
12. Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes picked up two nice wins last week and have won 4 straight.
13. Villanova - Another team that picked up two nice wins.
14. Arizona St. - ASU's computer numbers aren't great, but I can't ignore the wins over Arizona (twice) and Stanford. They may be in trouble as I could see them losing three of their final four games.
15. Wake Forest - The last four games are all winnable. 2-2 will leave them on the bubble, any better than that and they should be in good shape.
16. UNLV - As long as the Rebels keep winning, they will be fine.
17. Maryland - Losses to Virginia Tech and Miami but the Terps in danger of missing the tournament.
18. Texas A&M - A&M was the big loser last week. They got blown out at Texas and then lost at home to Nebraska. Losing on the road in the Big 12 is one thing, but losing at home to OK. State and Nebraska in the last two weeks is unforgivable.
19. Oregon - The Ducks are 6-9 in the Pac-10 and may need to win out to earn a bid. It's not impossible, but they have little room for error.
20. Florida - I'm still waiting for the Gators to pick up a good win.
21. BYU - BYU may have provided that separation I was looking for between BYU and UNLV with their loss at San Diego St.
22. Kent St. - Kent St. is the only team that helped themselves considerably over the Bracket Buster weekend. 
23. Kentucky - It will be hard to ignore Kentucky if they keep winning in the SEC.
24.Ohio St. - The Buckeyes missed yet another opportunity for a big win.
25. Davidson - The good news is that Davidson keeps winning; the bad news is they haven't played a team in the RPI top 100 since December. It's unfortunate that the Wildcats did not receive a better opponent during the Bracket Buster weekend.
26. VCU - The Rams have separated themselves from the pack in the CAA. Is that enough to earn a bid?
27. Houston - Houston could have separated themselves from everyone else in C-USA with a win at UAB.
28. S. Alabama - The win over WKU brings S. Alabama back into the picture, but it's likely not enough to earn a bid.
29. W. Kentucky - The Hilltoppers are another team that missed the opportunity to separate themselves from rest of their conference. My guess is that the Sunbelt is a one-bid league barring the collapse of other bubble teams.
30. UAB - A nice win over Houston probably isn't enough.

Dropping off the bubble:
NC State
Dayton
Rhode Island

An Oscar Night College Basketball Day in Review

Congratulations to No Country for Old Men for a well deserved best picture nod. Let’s get to a review of today’s games.

Louisville 75 – Pittsburgh 73

This was a tough road win for Louisville and now they return home for a couple of games and if they win them their season finale at Georgetown figures to have huge implications for the Big East title. Pitt could ha