Selection Sunday Live Blog

Happy Saturday everyone! Chad and I were talking about how we would discuss the tournament after match-ups are announced on Selection Sunday. So, after the brackets are released come right back here for a live blog. If you want a reminder enter your email address on the CoverItLive thing we have on the upper right corner of the blog.

To let you know how it's going to go, Chad and I will discuss a lot of pre-determined topics (things like our preliminary look at the Final Four and potential upset picks). In addition, the CoverItLive application allows for you to contribute to our chat. Like on ESPN chats you enter questions or comments and we decide whether to publish them (and provided you are not being an ass we'll likely publish it).

We would be happy to discuss topics determined by our readers as well. If you have anything you'd like to see us chat about either send us an email or, better yet, just comment at the end of this entry! We wouldn't mind this being interactive so we encourage your input!

A "Who Gets Married in March?" Friday College Basketball Review

Against my better judgment I’ll be away at a wedding tomorrow so you won’t get any updates from me on Saturday. Instead you’ll have to settle for a long entire weekend review after the action on Sunday. Happy TV watching everyone!

Colonial

(9) Towson 81 – (8) Hofstra 66

(12) Georgia State 57 – (5) William & Mary 58

(10) Drexel 51 – (7) Delaware 60

(11) James Madison 55 – (6) Northeastern 73

The 8-9 cannot really have an upset and because none of the good CAA teams played today this was a pretty uneventful day.

Missouri Valley

(8) Indiana State 46 – (1) Drake 68

(5) Bradley 70 – (4) Creighton 74

(7) Missouri State 58 – (2) Illinois State 63

(6) Northern Iowa 54 – (3) Southern Illinois 49

Clearly, of today’s action, the Valley has the greatest NCAA tournament implications. Drake disposed of Indiana State in impressive fashion and now will face Creighton, which nearly lost to Bradley despite holding an 18 point first half lead. On the other half of the bracket Illinois State won a back and forth match up with Missouri State to keep their at large hopes alive. Southern Illinois, on the other hand, had their hopes dashed by Northern Iowa. Illinois State should be able to beat UNI to make their resume look pretty strong (although they only split with UNI whereas they swept SIU).

Southern

(9) Western Carolina 49 – (8) Wofford 58

(10) Furman 37 – (7) Elon 52

(11) Citadel 48 – (6) Charleston 66

We won’t see any of the top 5 teams until tomorrow. None of these teams should be able to pose a problem for Davidson.

Horizon

(6) Valparaiso 72 – (3) Wright State 67

(8) Loyola Chicago 49 – (4) Illinois Chicago 60

The Valparaiso win over Wright State is really only a mild upset; Valparaiso is pretty good. This sets up an intriguing pair of semifinal match-ups in Valparaiso – Cleveland State and Illinois Chicago – Butler.

Ohio Valley

(4) Tenn-Martin 71 – (1) Austin Peay 78

(6) Tennessee State 83 – (2) Murray State 75

With two seed Murray State out of the way Austin Peay’s championship game just got a bit easier. However, Tennessee State handed Austin Peay one of their four conference losses and Austin Peay was only able to beat Tennessee State by 1 (79-78) in their win. Logically Austin Peay should be in good shape but this might just be a tough match up for the Governors.

Atlantic Sun

(6) Gardner-Webb 80 – (2) Jacksonville 89

(4) E. Tennessee State 65 – (1) Belmont 69

For those of you that missed it, Belmont was handed their game to them by East Tennessee State when Keyona Swader was called for a technical foul up 1 with 19 seconds to play. Belmont intentionally fouled Swader to stop the clock, Swader had words, he was T’d up immediately, and then Swader missed the front end of his one-and-one. The Bruins will face a game Jacksonville team for the automatic bid tomorrow.

America East

(9) Maine 65 – (8) Stony Brook 73

This was simply a play-in game to see who gets to lose to UMBC.

Metro Atlantic

(9) St. Peter’s 59 – (8) Manhattan 73

(10) Canisius 64 – (7) Iona 59

This was just a play-in day in the MAAC but Iona’s loss to a pretty horrible Canisius team was embarrassing. Still, with the strength and depth at the top of the conference it would be pretty stunning to see Manhattan or Canisius do any more damage.

West Coast

(8) Loyola Marymount 60 – (5) San Francisco 79

(7) Portland 48 – (6) Pepperdine 50

Other than Eddie Sutton grabbing number 804 there was nothing interesting about tonight in the WCC.

Big Sky Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Is it possible for anyone to knock off Portland State? Not only were they clearly the best team in the Big Sky this year but the conference really protects its top seeds. On Saturday the 3-6 seeds play each other and then the semifinals are on Tuesday. Not only does Portland State get those games at home but they play the lower seeded team to protect themselves against an upset benefiting the two seed, Northern Arizona.

What We’re Rooting For

Portland State is clearly the best team here and we’ll hope that they pick up the victory. It probably won’t matter as they are unlikely to pose much of a threat.

What Will Happen

Not only did Portland State only lose twice in conference play this year but also no one has been able to beat the Vikings at the Stott Center. Why would it happen now? Wins over Akron and IUPUI suggest Portland State is not a bad club but those wins still do not do enough to give us a lot of hope that we’ll be seeing much competitive action from the Big Sky in the NCAA tournament.

Summit League Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Oral Roberts was a bubble team prior to their Bracket Buster loss to Creighton so they really are pretty good. If they take the automatic bid they could be looking at a 13 or 14 seed (likely the 13). Their main competition will clearly be from IUPUI, a solid club that has a win over UMass under their belts.

What We’re Rooting For

An IUPUI-Oral Roberts match up for the title would be fun so we’ll root for that. We want to see the better team win and the guess here is that team would be Oral Roberts however that opinion is subject to change during the championship game itself (provided that is the match up).

What Will Happen

The tournament will be held in Tulsa so it’s in Oral Roberts’ backyard. Considering they are the best team a loss would be surprising so we’ll pick Oral Roberts to take the bid. Look out for IUPUI though.

America East Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Can anyone knock off UMBC? The Retrievers won the league by 3 games and their RPI is about 100 spots better than the next best in the conference.

What We’re Rooting For

These are the conference tournaments where we clearly root for the favorites. UMBC might be able to pose a challenge to someone but no one else in the conference would have a prayer of being competitive.

What Will Happen

All games other than the title game will be held at Binghampton. The title game will be at the home site of the better seeded team. That is what throws a wrench into this situation. Binghampton was one of UMBC’s three conferences losses. Upsets happen and this seems like a decent bet. We’ll predict Binghampton takes down UMBC in the semifinals before losing handily at 2 seed Hartford in the final.

Thursday Night in Review

Games with Tournament Implications

Clemson 75 – Georgia Tech 80

That’s a disappointing loss for Clemson. Now the winner of their season finale against Virginia Tech will finish alone in the ACC in third place. Obviously Clemson’s place is still safe.

Connecticut 76 – Providence 85

This probably drops UConn to fourth in the pecking order in the Big East which will drop their seed ceiling in the NCAA tournament.

Arizona State 61 – Oregon 67

Well, Oregon has gotten two of the three wins they need to get to .500 in the Pac 10, which could be enough for a bid. That still means a toughie against Arizona is ahead for them. Although a win at Oregon State is necessary for an at large bid for Arizona State, I’m not sure that alone gets it done. Arizona State has some real nice wins but they have a boatload of games against really poor competition (and that’s where you get the poor computer numbers).

Michigan State 59 – Illinois 51

The Spartans are still probably fourth in the pecking order in the Big 10 but if they can follow up this road win over Illinois with a win at Ohio State they could leave the door open to leapfrog one of the big three in the Big 10 as far as NCAA tournament seeding goes.

Arizona 81 – Oregon State 45

Arizona is in pretty decent shape. Finishing off the year with back-to-back losses could still change that. A win at Oregon to close out the year would lock it up for them.

Xavier 66 – St. Joseph’s 71

So, St. Joseph’s cannot beat St. Louis or Temple at home but they can take Xavier? This obviously puts them in better position than they were hours ago and they would be in terrific shape with a win at Dayton to close out the year. That game will be gigantic for each team.

California 89 – USC 93

USC is looking at a pretty nice seed in the NCAA tournament. Cal is pretty talented though and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pull an upset in the Pac 10 tournament.

Stanford 67 – UCLA 77

I think this game was probably more important for Stanford. UCLA is looking pretty secure in their positioning and they stand a decent shot at a one seed. Stanford is lacking more from the SOS standpoint and also just the overall perception of UCLA as one of the nation’s top teams. Losing this game the way they lost it has got to hurt Stanford.

Big South

(3) High Point 53 – (2) Winthrop 61

(4) Liberty 57 – (1) N.C. Asheville 75

There are no surprises here as we have ourselves set up for a Winthrop – N.C. Asheville final.

Northeast

(5) Quinnipiac 70 – (4) Mount St. Mary’s 80

(6) Central Connecticut State 71 – (3) Sacred Heart 84

(8) Monmouth 50 – (1) Robert Morris 64

(7) Long Island 62 – (2) Wagner 71

There is nothing surprising about chalk across the board.

Missouri Valley

(9) Wichita State 67 – (8) Indiana State 71

(10) Evansville 46 – (7) Missouri State 69

Look out for Missouri State against Illinois State. The Redbirds should still take the game but the Bears are reasonably talented and can compete with Illinois State.

Atlantic Sun

(6) Gardner-Webb 82 – (3) Stetson 63

(4) East Tennessee State 81 – (5) Lipscomb 74

Both of these results were surprising. Obviously a 6 seed crushing a 3 seed is surprising but the 4 beating the 5 is only surprising because it was on the home floor of the 5.

West Coast Conference Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Things are set up decently for three bids in this league. Because the tournament is being held at the Jenny Craig Pavilion San Diego has a shot at pulling the automatic bid. San Diego has only three conference losses and they were all against the top 2 teams in the league. Gonzaga swept the Toreros but St. Mary’s could not escape USD with a win. It is not impossible for USD to steal a bid.

What We’re Rooting For

We wouldn’t be disappointed with USD stealing a bid but Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are clearly the class of the conference and two solid WCC teams is probably enough. We’re hoping for a Gonzaga – St. Mary’s rubber match.

What Will Happen

The WCC sets up their tournament so the 1 and 2 seeds get a bye into the semifinals so St. Mary’s and Gonzaga have large advantages in that regard. Regardless of who wins a tough St. Mary’s – San Diego semifinal match up, the winner will have to face a Gonzaga team that will probably roll in their semifinal match up. The Bulldogs could have an advantage in being well rested and prepared for that final. We’ll give Gonzaga the edge for taking the automatic bid. Anyone winning other than the top 3 would be stunning.

Southern Conference Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

The story here will be whether Davidson can get an at large bid if they fail to take the automatic bid. The bigger story should be can anyone beat Davidson after the 20-0 regular season conference record?

What We’re Rooting For

Although it would be interesting to see if Davidson could get an at large bid I’d rather just avoid the drama. We’re rooting for Davidson to just grab the automatic bid.

What Will Happen

It would be quite a stretch and simply picking upset for the sake of picking an upset to take anyone but Davidson. In only four of Davidson’s 20 conference wins has the opponent even been able to stay within single digit points of the Wildcats. Only once has an opponent lost by just a possession and that was two months ago.

MAAC Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

This might be the most unpredictable, most exciting conference tournaments in the country. We have 6 teams separated by 2 games in the conference standings. Not only that, but there are teams here that can put a scare into good teams in the NCAA tournament. Just look at Siena’s early season double digit win against Stanford or even their 23-point road domination over WAC leader Boise State. And this is from a team that did not run away from its conference opponents. The MAAC is not bad.

What We’re Rooting For

Siena’s win over Stanford is clearly the conference’s best win so we know they have the ability to beat a potential three seed. I’d prefer to see them take the automatic bid but I’d be interested in Niagara or Rider as well.

What Will Happen

It’s really tough to say what will happen because there are a lot of teams capable of winning this. Because things figure to be so close I’ll take the team with the conferences best player and predict Rider and Jason Thompson to take the bid.

Wednesday Night College Basketball Review

Games with Tournament Implications

Kentucky 71 – South Carolina 63

This was a must win game for Kentucky and now they have played reasonably well in two straight games without Patrick Patterson and they’ve kept the door open for a possible at large bid if they can take care of Florida at home.

Minnesota 55 – Indiana 69

This is no surprise but it was good of Indiana to get back in the win column after the bad loss at Michigan State.

Duquesne 85 – Temple 90

I’m keeping an eye on Temple now. If they win out and get to the A-10 title game I think they’ll have to be considered for an at large bid. Now they’re clearly on the outside looking in.

Duke 86 – Virginia 70

Duke picked up an easy road win to set up the huge home match up this weekend against North Carolina.

Dayton 78– St. Bonaventure 73

That’s a couple straight road wins for Dayton and now they set themselves up for a huge home finale against fellow bubble team St. Joseph’s. A Dayton win in that would put them back at .500 in the league and alive for an at large bid.

Boston College 61 – Miami 74

I have a hard time considering a situation in which Miami does not get in. If they lose at Florida State and then in their first ACC tournament game it’s possible but I don’t think that’s going to happen and they might get in anyway. The Hurricanes are pretty secure right now.

Syracuse 85 – Seton Hall 73

Had Seton Hall won they might be still alive but with this loss they’re definitely done. Syracuse stays alive though with a pretty convincing road win. They’re still under .500 in the Big East and I think they need a home win against Marquette to get back to .500 to be back in. If they manage that they could be in pretty good shape.

La Salle 63 – Massachusetts 100

My goodness we might actually have a non-Xavier A-10 team that wants to dance. A win at George Washington should pretty much lock up a bid. I figure UMass is pretty safe now.

St. John’s 55 – Notre Dame 68

Notre Dame avoided the bad slip up and they continue to look at a good seed.

Memphis 72 – SMU 55

I’m honestly a bit surprised that this score wasn’t uglier. In order to maintain a solid hold on a one seed they may need to win out. Their home game against UAB is huge for UAB and they’ll probably get a battle.

UCF 68 – Houston 73

Houston is still in trouble but this win means they’re still worth keeping an eye on.

South Florida 59 – Villanova 72

Villanova is also just worth keeping an eye on at this point. That will end if they can’t win at Providence but even with a win there they’ll need to make a bit of noise in the Big East tournament.

Tulsa 70 – UAB 84

UAB actually trailed at halftime but they rolled in the second half to set up their huge game against Memphis. If the tournament started today I think they’d probably get in but a win over Memphis could clinch it for the Blazers.

Oklahoma 68 – Oklahoma State 56

Well, I was keeping an eye on Oklahoma State but if they cannot beat Oklahoma at home when the Sooners were without Blake Griffin. As it is, the Sooners are probably a home win against Missouri away from locking themselves up in a bid.

Mississippi State 85 – Vanderbilt 86

Oh, how disappointed am I that I missed this? I think even with this loss Mississippi State is pretty much a lock but they could be looking at a pretty good seed if Shan Foster hadn’t completely gone nuts. That’s 9-12 on threes including a game winner with 2.7 seconds left for 38 points. Had the Bulldogs been able to hit their free throws they would take this game.

Texas A&M 71 – Baylor 57

I wanted to put Baylor in the tournament and winning at home against a team that has been horrible recently would have done it. So, naturally they lose this game by 14. Now both of these teams are 8-7 and I’m not sure either is safe yet although both would be OK with wins in their final games. Baylor travels to Texas Tech and TAMU hosts Kansas.

Tennessee 89 – Florida 86

Florida was a sizable halftime lead away from being in great position for a bid and they blow it in the second half. Tennessee stays in good shape for one seed whereas Florida faces what is pretty much a must win at Kentucky this weekend. That game will be gigantic.

Penn State 41 – Wisconsin 77

Would you expect anything else?

Wyoming 61 – BYU 78

BYU has locked up the MWC with this win. At this point all they need to do is avoid a couple bad losses and they’re looking at a nice seed.

Atlantic Sun

(7) Mercer 57 – (2) Jacksonville 65

(8) Campbell 66 – (1) Belmont 75

There was nothing surprising here today. The rest of the quarterfinals will be tomorrow.

Sun Belt

(10) Florida International 64 – (7) Florida Atlantic 91

(11) Arkansas State 63 – (6) North Texas 85

(9) Denver 60 – (8) New Orleans 65

(13) Louisiana Monroe 69 – (4) Middle Tennessee State 74

(12) Troy 70 – (5) Louisiana Lafayette 60

The only upset of the bunch was Troy over Louisiana Lafayette. That’s actually a pretty large upset though.

Patriot League

(7) Bucknell 87 – (2) Navy 86

(6) Lafayette 74 – (3) Colgate 76

(8) Holy Cross 60 – (1) American 62

(5) Army 64 – (4) Lehigh 61

I predicted “chaos” for the Patriot League and so far that prediction is looking pretty good. We have 2 road teams winning already including 7 seed Bucknell over 2 seed Navy in triple overtime on a buzzer beater halftime prayer and fifth three point make of the game for John Griffin. That’s not to mention that across the four games there were four overtimes played and a combined 8 points decided the games. That means the blowout of the day was Army’s 3-point overtime win at Lehigh. We’re off to a fantastic start in the Patriot League.

Colonial Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Can the CAA end up taking two bids? It would have to happen via a VCU run to the finals and a loss. Even that won’t necessarily do it. The loss in the final would have to be against either George Mason or UNC Wilmington. Still, one of VCU’s home losses was to a dangerous semifinal opponent, Old Dominion. Any of the top four seeds would be very capable of taking the automatic bid although UNC Wilmington has had the least success in non-conference play.

What We’re Rooting For

Colonial teams are fun to watch in the NCAA tournament. After Eric Maynor’s terrific performance in the win over Duke last year and obviously George Mason’s Final Four run, that is tough to dispute. I want more. Another George Mason run behind Folarin Campbell and Will Thomas would be terrific. People may forget that after VCU’s win over Duke they came back from a 19 point deficit to take Pitt into overtime before falling to the Panthers. A George Mason win over VCU resulting in both in the NCAA tournament would be fun.

What Will Happen

Although VCU does not play at the Richmond Coliseum these days, they used to so VCU should feel a bit of a home court (and at least fan) advantage. That figures to mean a lot to a team that was the best team in the conference anyway. VCU was arguably the most talented team in the conference and they were probably the most consistent as well. But I feel like we need to pick an upset at some point, and now is as good a time as any. So, let’s get nuts and pick the balanced attack of Old Dominion to steal the bid.

Northeast Conference Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Can anybody beat Robert Morris? The Colonials haven’t loss since early January in their 13 game winning streak.

What We’re Rooting For

Realistically this doesn’t matter much; this is not a great league. But Robert Morris has pretty firmly established themselves as the top team in the conference so we’d prefer to see them grab the automatic bid.

What Will Happen

Robert Morris hasn’t been losing recently and now they’ll get an opportunity at home to wrap up their bid. It seems likely to happen. It’s not a guarantee, however, as surprisingly their only two conference losses were at home. One of those losses was to preseason favorite and 3 seed Sacred Heart.

Tuesday College Basketball Review

Games with Tournament Implications

Wake Forest 58 – Virginia Tech 80

I don’t like it as much as anyone, but Virginia Tech has to be considered close to getting in. With a 9-6 record in the ACC they still control their own destiny to end up with the 3 seed in the ACC tournament. Now, they’re not in yet because they did nothing out of conference, but their conference performance will keep them in the picture. This was likely a deathblow for Wake Forest.

Purdue 77 – Ohio State 80

Some big turnovers towards the end of regulation really hurt Purdue and then Ohio State pulled it off in overtime. This game likely cost Purdue the Big 10 title. It also gave Ohio State their best win of the year. They’re not in yet but if they beat Michigan State in their home finale this weekend it might get hard to keep them out.

Miami 39 – Kent State 50

Kent State took out Miami in quite a barnburner to keep their hopes alive. Their regular season finale at Akron will be very difficult and very large. A loss might end their chances at an at large.

Nebraska 66 – Texas 70

What is happening to Texas? They followed up a loss at Texas Tech with a near home loss to Nebraska. They’re in good shape for a high seed but it would drop quite a bit if they cannot handle Oklahoma State this weekend.

Florida Gulf Coast 37 – Marquette 67

Does anyone know why this game even happened?

Florida State 77 – North Carolina 90

Florida State would have been alive again with a win against North Carolina. Instead North Carolina stays alive for a possible one seed and possibly the one overall seed. Not surprisingly their game against Duke this weekend is huge.

UNLV 45 – New Mexico 59

As far as an at large bid, UNLV is in trouble. It’s not so much that this kills their resume but considering they’ll be at home for their conference tournament I’m not sure they have an acceptable loss left on the schedule. Instead UNLV is in a similar situation as New Mexico. They likely both would need to win out to the conference final game to get an at large chance but I’m not completely sure that would be enough for either; it would come down to what happens across the rest of the country.

Colorado 72 – Kansas State 78

Kansas State got their win they needed to stay in good shape but it probably didn’t need to be that close down the stretch. They’re probably pretty happy right now that they have Michael Beasley and Bill Walker on their team; they didn’t have a whole lot of help.

Arkansas 72 – Mississippi 81

So, what if Mississippi builds off these last two wins and doesn’t lose again until the SEC title game? I think they could still get an at large and it’s even possible that if they regain their play from earlier in the year they could get through a pretty weak SEC. There’s a long way to go but it is actually possible. Arkansas now faces a must win regular season finale against Auburn. If they drop that game they’ll be in a dicey situation entering the SEC tournament.

Big South

(7) Radford 45 – (2) Winthrop 76

(6) Coastal Carolina 56 – (3) High Point 59

(5) Virginia Military 88 – (4) Liberty 103

(8) Charleston Southern 63 – (1) N.C. Asheville 87

The top four seeds all won at home to keep things as expected in the Big South.

Ohio Valley

(6) Tennessee State 68 – (3) Morehead State 61

(5) Samford 94 – (4) Tennessee-Martin 101

(8) Eastern Kentucky 51 – (1) Austin Peay 76

(7) Tennessee Tech 74 – (2) Murray State 77

Tennessee State pulled the upset over Morehead State but chalk ruled the rest of the tournament.

Horizon League

(10) Detroit 37 – (3) Wright State 60

(7) Wisconsin Green Bay 67 – (6) Valparaiso 75

(8) Loyola Chicago 57 – (5) Wisconsin Milwaukee 51

(9) Youngstown State 59 – (4) Illinois Chicago 70

Loyola Chicago’s win at Wisconsin Milwaukee was a surprise but Wright State (or perhaps Valparaiso) is likely the only team that can challenge Cleveland State or Butler.

Missouri Valley Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

How many bids will come out of the Valley? Drake is obviously safe and now Illinois State has a shot as well. I’d be curious to see what happens if the Creighton-Bradley winner can knock off Illinois State in the final. Could we still see three bids from the Valley? It seems ridiculous to consider but if things fall right elsewhere I think it is something we might see happen.

What We’re Rooting For

Admittedly I am a Creighton fan so we’re rooting for Creighton to take the bid. More than that though, we’re rooting for the situation I described earlier to occur and the Valley somehow manage to have three teams in the NCAA tournament.

What Will Happen

As soon as Drake clinched the one seed in this tournament I predicted they’d beat the 8-9 winner but then lose to the 4-5 winner. I don’t even mean that as an insult to Drake; I still think they’re very good and a run in the NCAA tournament wouldn’t surprise me. However, they have started to lose in conference and perhaps the Valley is starting to figure the Bulldogs out. That 4-5 game will be a rematch of one of college basketball’s games of the year this past weekend as Creighton beat Bradley 111-110 behind reserve guard Cavel Witter’s 42 points in double overtime. Still, Bradley’s huge win over Creighton in Peoria suggests Bradley should get by Creighton and I see the Braves, behind alleged woman-beater but fantastic guard Daniel Ruffin in the title game. Don’t be fooled by Bradley’s record. Many of the losses occurred with Ruffin out with injury and indefinite suspension. With him back they may be able to outscore the field in St. Louis and I’ll pick the Braves to take the league’s automatic bid.

Monday Night College Basketball Review

Pittsburgh 62 – West Virginia 76

I’m looking at West Virginia’s resume at this point trying to figure out if they’re a lock now or if they need to win at St. John’s to truly lock it up. My first response is that they should pick up the St. John’s win to really lock it up. That may be true, but in considering how weak the bubble is I’m not sure that they could be kept out even if they lose against St. John’s and then in their first Big East tournament game. They are clearly in excellent shape. Pitt is still in although I suppose if they lose at home to DePaul and then lose their first conference tournament game they could find their way out but even then it would be tough.

Texas Tech 51 – Kansas 109

I actually put Texas Tech on my list of teams to keep an eye on after their win over Texas. I figured if they could get to 9-7 that would mean they won at Kansas and then at home against Baylor. At that point their RPI of 47 likely would have taken a bit of a leap and they would have looked like a decent at large candidate. Well, so much for all that. When Kansas really plays well they can look good.

St. Mary’s 64 – Portland 50

St. Mary’s avoided a loss here that could have put them in dangerous position. Had they lost here and then in their opening game against San Diego (a definite possibility) their situation would have been dicey.

Santa Clara 54 – Gonzaga 88

Gonzaga rolled over Santa Clara to finish off their regular season. They should be able to withstand a loss in their opening WCC tournament game, although it seems unlikely that such a loss would occur

Patriot League Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Hey, it looks like this year neither Holy Cross nor Bucknell will be favored to make the championship game! Don’t completely count out Holy Cross, despite finishing last in the conference. The Crusaders have the most top 100 wins in the conference. Sure, it’s just two but those wins are over Ohio and at St. Joe’s (the latter being the conference’s best non-conference win). That means that an upset of the 8 seed Holy Cross over the 1 seed American is a possibility.

What We’re Rooting For

We’re rooting for this tournament to just get over with. Sorry to fans of the Patriot League but there is not a whole lot compelling here. While it is fun that it seems unlikely that we’ll see someone else take the automatic bid this year there is not much to suggest that the winner will do much damage or pose much of a threat.

What Will Happen

Chaos. Sure, American took the conference by one game over Navy and Navy had a two game lead over third place. But then five teams were sitting at either 7-7 or 6-8, not to mention Holy Cross sitting at 5-9. Yes, this is even the Holy Cross that was picked to finish first in the league (but was set back by injuries to Alex Vander Baan, Pat Doherty, and Eric Meister). American leads the conference in scoring margin at +3.0 per game and Army is last at –3.0. There figure to be a lot of games when anything can happen. I’m tempted to pick Holy Cross to win the bid but that’s a bit ridiculous considering they did finish in last and would have to win three straight on the road. An upset win over American would not be shocking but to pull two more upsets after that would be. Anyway, we’re going to predict the automatic bid goes to Navy.

Sun Belt Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Loyal readers likely know that I love the Sun Belt and think it is very underrated. Clearly the big storyline will be can this conference get an at large bid. The team with the greatest chance for an at large bid is South Alabama however, because they host the conference tournament, not getting the automatic bid will mean they grab a bad home loss. If they lose to not Western Kentucky it could be troublesome for South Alabama. I’ll give a bonus thing to watch for, however. There is talent in this league outside of the WKU and USA. Look for Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, New Orleans, or Arkansas Little Rock to knock off one of the big guns.

What We’re Rooting For

We’re rooting for this conference to take a bid from a team like Florida. What’s the best way for that to happen? It’s probably going to have to be via Western Kentucky knocking off South Alabama in the championship game.

What Will Happen

How many times did South Alabama lose at the Mitchell Center during conference play? If your guess was zero you are the winner! It would be a pretty large upset for South Alabama not to take the automatic bid.

Are "Bubble" Teams Really on the Bubble?

As a Kansas State fan, I've listened to or read a lot of Wildcat fans that are scared of missing out on the NCAA tournament. And after hearing enough of their worries, I became worried myself. So, in order to calm my fears I decided I needed to look at the entire NCAA field and see where the bids are going.

First, is a group of teams that are likely in no matter what happen.

Locks (27 teams in no particular order)
Tenn
Texas
Pitt
Washington St.
Drake
Indian
Uconn
Michigan St.
Georgetown
Wisconsin
St. Mary's
Duke
UCLA
Memphis
UNC
Purdue
Marquette
Notre Dame
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
Butler
Stanford
Louisville
Clemson
USC
Kansas
Xavier

Next you have the automatic bids from smaller conferences. For the sake of this I'll assume that all of these bids will be "stolen" by teams that don't have a chance for an at-large. This is the worst case scenario for bubble teams. I will assume that the winners of the major conference tournaments will come from the list of teams from above.

Automatic bids (16 conference)
A Sun
Big Sky
Am East
Big West
Summit
MEAC
Southland
Ohio Valley
Big South
Northeast
WAC
Ivy
MAAC
C-USA
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
A-10

The "locks" and the automatic bids account for 43 of the 65 bids. That leaves 22 bids for "bubble" teams. Here's a list of teams that are considered "bubble" teams, but are in decent shape. This is where I believe K-State is.

Bubble, but probably OK (10 teams)
Kansas State
Baylor
Oklahoma
Arizona
UMass
Miami (FL)
Arkansas
Arizona St.
UNLV
BYU

Next you have some teams from "mid-major" conferences that may earn a bid. Realistically, you can assume that at least a few of these teams will win their conference tournaments and that a few of them will not make the tournament.

"Mid-majors" (7 teams)
Kent St.
Virginia Commonwealth
S. Alabama
Davidson
UAB
W. Kentucky
New Mexico
Illinois St.

After all of that, even assuming the worst case scenario of bids being "stolen" in the conference tournaments and all of the bubble mid-major teams making the tournament, there are still five bids up for grabs. This is what I consider to be the bubble. And I'm being pretty generous with my inclusion of some of the teams listed here.

Bubble Teams (12 teams for 5 spots)
Villanova
Oregon
Wake Forest
Kentucky
Syracuse
Rhode Island
St. Joe's
Dayton
Virginia Tech
Texas A&M
Florida
Ohio St.

So what I've learned here is that the bubble is incredibly weak. Realistically, a few of the teams listed above will win some of those "mid-major" conference tournaments. For example, I would be very shocked in UNLV, BYU or New Mexico does not win the Mountain West or if Xavier, UMass, Rhode Island, St. Joe's or Dayton does not win the A-10. So with all of that said is seems that a lot of the teams that are being referred to as bubble teams are actually in good shape assuming they don't collapse over the next two weeks.

Horizon League Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

This is a huge conference tournament for bubble teams around the country. Butler’s bid is obviously locked up and no other team is at large worthy so can Butler save a bid for some bubble team around the country by taking the conference tournament? Many, many eyes will be this tournament.

What We’re Rooting For

Typically we root for the best team to win but in this case we have to consider whether we’d rather see a team like Wright State or Cleveland State in the tournament or Ohio State. Well, we know Ohio State is terrible but we don’t know with Wright State or Cleveland State. So, that said we’re going to root for the field against Butler to take an extra bid and hope that it goes to either Wright State or Cleveland State.

What Will Happen

Hey, Butler hasn’t won the conference tournament since 2001. That said, even last year with Butler’s great year they had the second seed to Wright State’s one and thus had to play the championship game at the Nutter Center. This year, with Butler being able to stay at Hinkle, we have to predict that Butler will take the automatic bid and save a bid for a terrible team like Ohio State.

Sunday College Basketball Review

Putting together conference tournament previews will not prevent us from getting daily reviews of the action. So, keep coming back to check out those previews and daily reviews and please feed us your comments!

Kentucky 60 – Tennessee 63

As soon as the news of Patrick Patterson’s injury came out ESPN started telling us that this would be the end of their season. Don’t get me wrong; I thought that seemed like a likely scenario. However, why wouldn’t we wait to see how they respond and play without him? A win today probably would have put Kentucky in the tournament, Patterson or no Patterson. As it is they played well enough that winning their final two games should still get them in.

Notre Dame 98 – DePaul 91

This was a game where slipping up would have been possible but Notre Dame withstood 60 second half DePaul points to stay with Connecticut behind Louisville and Georgetown in the Big East.

Indiana 74 – Michigan State 103

With this result the Big 10 title falls to Purdue or Wisconsin. Indiana has not been fantastic since going over to Dakich. By the way, where did this offense come from for Michigan State? This seems like a couple of games worth for them.

Villanova 54 – Louisville 68

I have to think at this point Villanova needs to take their final two games to stay alive. As it stands right now they should not be in. Get back to 9-9 in the Big East and then we can talk about what needs to be accomplished in the Big East tournament.

UCLA 68 – Arizona 66

That’s now 2-6 in their last 8 for Arizona. At two games under .500 in the Pac 10 it’s a bit ridiculous for them to be considered to be in very good shape still, computer numbers be damned. I can buy them being in now, but they better not give Oregon State their first conference win on Thursday.

Temple 57 – St. Joseph’s 56

All St. Joe’s really needed to do was beat St. Louis and Temple at home to lock up a bid and they failed to beat either of them. Seriously, even one win could have kept them in decent position. Now they finish with Xavier and @Dayton and I guess that means they have a chance for two good looking wins that could keep them in the picture but if they can’t beat St. Louis and Temple at home what makes me think that they can pull 2-0 against Xavier and Dayton?

Clemson 73 – Maryland 70

Teams that are on the bubble for the NCAA tournament should not take a 20-point lead with 11 minutes left and then blow it. The game at Virginia now becomes a must win. Clemson has a good shot at pulling an 11-5 conference record and with their computer numbers this could turn into a nice seed in the conference tournament. This Clemson team is dangerous.

Oregon 80 – Oregon State 68

Well, after their three game losing streak Oregon needed to likely win their final three regular season games. One down, a couple more (tough ones against teams that desperately need the win) to go. Oregon State also gets big chances against the Arizona schools to pick up a conference win. Any win for the Beavers will have giant ramifications considering the fact that they play bubble teams.

Atlantic Sun Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

Ah we return to the Atlantic Sun. Way back on November 15 I talked about the dominance of the Atlantic Sun. Belmont had beaten Cincinnati, Gardner-Webb beat Kentucky, and Mercer won at USC by 15. This, by the way, is a Mercer that now has an RPI of 314! The best part of this league is that Belmont has two conference losses and they were to teams with 2 of the 3 worst RPIs in the league. Fantastic!

What We’re Rooting For

What can we root for? I guess we have no choice but to root for Belmont as they seem to be the best team in the conference.

What Will Happen

This conference tournament will be held at Lipscomb so that obviously gives them an edge. However, they are not unbeatable at home as they have lost to Belmont and East Tennessee State. The smart bet is likely to stick with a Belmont victory.

Ohio Valley Tournament Preview

What to Watch For

If you watch the Ohio Valley you are going to see some bad basketball. The best two wins the conference has both belong to league leader Austin Peay and they both are over Belmont. Don’t get me wrong; Belmont has had quite a year but that’s not great for the scalp of the year for the conference.

What We’re Rooting For

I suppose we have to root for Austin Peay behind their huge Belmont victories. They also did run away with the conference to establish themselves pretty clearly as the best the Ohio Valley has to offer. Plus, they did at least play decently well in losses to schools like Vanderbilt, Utah State, Valparaiso, and Akron.

What Will Happen

Austin Peay established themselves as clearly the best team in the conference and we have to predict them to be the winner. Then in the NCAA tournament we should see something similar to their 104-82 loss to Memphis.