You will have the opportunity to contribute your own comments and they are encouraged. So, we hope to see you all here at www.bizarrojoelunardi.com for the live blog starting during the selection show!
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Live Blog Reminder
You will have the opportunity to contribute your own comments and they are encouraged. So, we hope to see you all here at www.bizarrojoelunardi.com for the live blog starting during the selection show!
Championship Saturday Review
Conference USA
(7) Tulsa 51 – (1) Memphis 77
When is a game with a 26-point margin of victory not as close as the final score indicates? When it’s this game. Memphis had a pretty easy road through a pretty easy conference this year.
America East
(2) Hartford 65 – (1) UMBC 82
This was a surprisingly interesting game for a 17-point victory. The first half was fascinating because Jay Greene was incredible and as a team UMBC would never miss. The second half was interesting because Hartford had a stretch where they stopped missing threes and it appeared as though they might get back in it. Eventually the shots stopped dropping with such regularity and the Retrievers pulled away.
SEC
(6E) Georgia 56 – (2E) Kentucky 60
(2W) Arkansas 91 – (1E) Tennessee 92
(6E) Georgia 64 – (1W) Mississippi State 60
I understand Kentucky is likely in regardless of this loss and their conference record is impressive. However, the SEC was down this year and their resume really is not that good. I would still have Kentucky in, but I probably consider them closer to the cut line than most. Then, after the final two games of the day bubble teams need to root for Arkansas to beat Georgia. Well, Arkansas already lost to Georgia once this year, and by 13 even. If I’m a bubble team rooting for Arkansas not to blow a game I’m feeling very uncomfortable right now.
ACC
(4) Virginia Tech 66 – (1) North Carolina 68
(3) Clemson 78 – (2) Duke 74
Virginia Tech nearly punched their ticket. I heard some people claim that Virginia Tech might need to not only beat North Carolina but also win the whole tournament. I don’t necessarily buy that but I would agree that they’re out now. If Clemson beating Duke surprised you then I don’t know what to tell you; Duke has not been playing great basketball. In fact, Duke is a decent bet to lose the opening weekend if you are looking for one of those kinds of picks.
Big 10
(4) Michigan State 63 – (1) Wisconsin 65
(10) Illinois 54 – (6) Minnesota 50
The outcomes of today’s games were probably ideal for bubble teams. Wisconsin is clearly more trustworthy than Michigan State (even if less talented). Based on the results of the entire year bubble teams should probably fear Minnesota more than Illinois. All that said, Illinois has been pretty good this weekend and one more upset would not be shocking. Still, I’d be more surprised by Illinois getting in than Georgia.
Big 12
(4) Oklahoma 49 – (1) Texas 77
(6) Texas A&M 71 – (2) Kansas 77
So, we’ll get exactly the championship game we should get. That was a game effort by Texas A&M, but really there was not much drama in Kansas City on Saturday.
Pac 10
(2) Stanford 64 – (1) UCLA 67
That was a pretty nice performance by Collison. That’s three UCLA wins over Stanford this year and both should be looking at nice seeds.
Atlantic 10
(5) St. Joseph’s 64 – (2) Temple 69
So, what do we have here? I’d still stay St. Joseph’s is in good shape to be the third team in from the A-10 but they’ll be sweating at least a little big on Sunday. After looking at Temple’s resume I think this was a must win for the Owls. It looks like I’ve been underestimating Temple all year long and they should be a legit number two team out of the A-10.
Mountain West
(1) BYU 61 – (2) UNLV 76
This game was really not that lopsided. UNLV was probably in even with a loss but their resume had enough holes that they probably feel pretty good about getting the automatic bid. BYU is clearly in as well. I can’t imagine New Mexico making it three bids for the MWC.
SWAC
(4) Jackson State 58 – (2) Mississippi Valley State 59
Hey, at least Mississippi Valley State has a top 250 RPI! We should be seeing them in Dayton.
Mid-American
(3) Akron 55 – (1) Kent State 74
This was a dangerous game for the bubble teams as Akron is a pretty decent team. Kent State got up to a decent early lead and just let it grow. There was not much doubt during most of the game.
Mid-Eastern
(7) Coppin State 62 – (1) Morgan State 60
Hey, Coppin State has made history! They are the first 20-loss team ever to make the NCAA tournament! Still, I want to know how many 20-loss teams in NCAA history have had a stretch where they’ve won 12 of 13 games. Coppin State sure didn’t make things easy on themselves. They won their 4 conference tournament games by an average of 1.5 points per game.
Big East
(7) Pittsburgh 74 – (1) Georgetown 65
How about Pitt, eh? The Panthers figure to get a seed in the NCAA tournament better than the 7 seed they had in the Big East tournament. Today’s win was over a Georgetown team that had been fantastic in their two games so far this weekend. No one will want to see Pitt in their bracket right now.
WAC
(4) Boise State 107 – (3) New Mexico State 102
This game was ridiculous. It was also one of those games where I felt for the fans of the Big West teams waiting for Boise State to finally wrap it up so they could watch their team play on ESPN2. The part that was even worse was that Boise State seemed like they had the game wrapped up several times and New Mexico State kept coming back and coming back before finally running out of juice. Real fun game though.
Big West
(3) CSU Fullerton 81 – (5) UC Irvine 66
Well, this is nice. CSU Fullerton surely has a nicer resume than UC Irvine and we’d rather have them in for that reason alone. Still, it seems unlikely that they’ll be challenging anyone next week.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Friday College Basketball Review
Big 10
(9) Michigan 34 – (1) Wisconsin 51
(5) Ohio State 60 – (4) Michigan State 67
(10) Illinois 74 – (2) Purdue 67
(6) Minnesota 59 – (3) Indiana 58
After about the most boring opener you could imagine the rest of the games had interest. Ohio State lost and now will sweat it out on Sunday. I imagine the Buckeyes are in trouble but they’ll be under consideration with the boatload of bubble losers yesterday. A couple of surprisingly good games finished off the day’s action as Illinois upset Purdue in overtime. Minnesota overcame some questionable officiating with a ridiculous buzzer beater from Blake Hoffarber. Regardless of the winner of the Minnesota-Illinois game tomorrow, the Big 10 will have a chance to steal a bid if that winner can take down the Wisconsin-Michigan State winner in the final.
ACC
(9) Florida State 70 – (1) North Carolina 82
(5) Miami 49 – (4) Virginia Tech 63
(7) Georgia Tech 70 – (2) Duke 82
(11) Boston College 48 – (3) Clemson 82
Yesterday I said I was willing to consider Florida State’s resume if they beat North Carolina. They did not. Duke and Clemson also rolled to victories. The big ACC game of the day was Virginia Tech’s win over Miami. They probably still need to knock off the Tar Heels but the Hokies at least deserve to be discussed Sunday.
Big 12
(9) Oklahoma State 59 – (1) Texas 66
(12) Colorado 49 – (4) Oklahoma 54
(7) Nebraska 54 – (2) Kansas 64
(6) Texas A&M 63 – (3) Kansas State 60
Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma winning was not exciting. Texas A&M beating Kansas State was at least of moderate interest. This should finally absolutely lock up Texas A&M’s bid. Had yesterday gone differently perhaps I would say Kansas State should sweat but yesterday did go as yesterday went so Kansas State not getting a bid would be criminal.
SEC
(5E) South Carolina 87 – (1E) Tennessee 89
(3E) Vanderbilt 75 – (2W) Arkansas 81
(5W) Alabama 67 – (1W) Mississippi State 69
(6E) Georgia – (2E) Kentucky ppd.
What is going to happen with this tournament? Obviously that was absolutely nuts today but we have a suspended game now. Are we actually going to see one of those teams have to play a double header? If they do that why wouldn’t that be announced by now (and I say this at 12:20 am central time)? I have no clue. This storm is going to overshadow the fact that there were some really terrific basketball games on Friday with favorites prevailing.
SWAC
(6) Arkansas Pine Bluff 59 – (2) Mississippi Valley State 70
(4) Jackson State 77 – (1) Alabama State 72
As Alabama State goes down so do our dreams of seeing Chief Kickingstallionsims in the NCAA tournament. This really will not change much though. All it means is that the worst team in the NCAA tournament will be even worse than we thought.
Conference USA
(5) Southern Miss 53 – (1) Memphis 69
(7) Tulsa 64 – (6) UTEP 62
Tulsa is falling in love with overtime and my guess is they’ll take overtime again on Saturday. (So would I, by the way; Tulsa stealing an at large bid would be pretty fun.) It seems unlikely that bubble teams have much to worry about as Memphis should roll. Actually, Memphis jumped out to a huge early 20-3 lead and then surprisingly actually had to play basketball after that but USM never really threatened.
Patriot
(3) Colgate 46 – (1) American 52
In the Patriot League we actually get the number one seed getting the automatic bid, which I suppose isn’t too surprising because American never had to leave home. Still I don’t think they’re posing too much of a challenge.
Mid-Eastern
(4) Delaware State 55 – (1) Morgan State 61
(7) Coppin State 67 – (3) Norfolk State 65
Coppin State has now gone from 2-19 to 15-20; that’s an incredible run. They’ll get yet another test as they face one seeded Morgan State. The fact that a team can be on such a huge run yet still have only gotten the 7 seed shows just how horrible they were through most of this year. It’ll be interesting to see if Morgan State can find a way to slow them down.
Atlantic 10
(5) St. Joseph’s 61 – (1) Xavier 53
(6) Charlotte 45 – (2) Temple 60
For fans hoping for lots of bids from the A-10 this is nearly ideal. St. Joseph’s is probably in regardless of what happens against Temple in the final. Temple might even have a shot if they don’t beat St. Joseph’s. And then what do you do with the clear number two in the conference prior to the tournament in UMass? Things are looking bleak for the Minutemen now but I don’t think it’s hopeless. I wonder if there would be room for 4 A-10 teams.
Southland
(7) TX Arlington 72 – (3) Sam Houston State 66
(5) Northwestern State 69 – (1) Stephen F. Austin 66
Ugh, these are some disappointing results. Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State (albeit to a lesser extent) were two most intriguing teams in the conference. Actually, Stephen F. Austin was by far the most intriguing team in the conference and they could have been an interesting pick for an upset as a 13 seed. Instead we’re going to see the Southland pick up a 16 seed and that’s awfully disappointing.
Mid-American
(3) Akron 73 – (2) Western Michigan 62
(5) Miami 47 – (1) Kent State 49
Obviously tomorrow bubble teams are going to be rooting hard for Kent State. Kent State beat Akron in both teams’ final regular season game at Akron 61-58. Although Kent State actually swept the season series Akron is talented enough that an upset in the final would not be stunning.
Big East
(5) West Virginia 55 – (1) Georgetown 72
(7) Pittsburgh 68 – (6) Marquette 61
Georgetown really has been terrific in the Big East tournament and they might actually be earning that two seed I was afraid they did not deserve. I don’t think they’ll have an easy time with Pitt though; it seems teams rarely have an easy time with Pitt with their style of play.
WAC
(4) Boise State 88 – (1) Utah State 78
(2) Nevada 75 – (3) New Mexico State 83
Although all four of these teams tied atop the conference standings I actually think the two best teams lost today. That’s unfortunate and now we’re looking at a strong possibility that the only WAC team to get into the tournament will do so as a triple digit RPI team. This has been a disastrous year in the WAC.
Big West
(5) UC Irvine 55 – (1) UCSB 50
(3) CSU Fullerton 83 – (2) CSU Northridge 68
How about UC Irvine? Despite being able to beat UCSB it would be pretty stunning if they are able to make it four wins in four days with a win over CSU Fullerton. Still, both of the losers today had a bye into this round by virtue of earning the top two seeds. I imagine CSU Fullerton will be the heavy favorite on Saturday.
Pac 10
(4) USC 54 – (1) UCLA 57
(3) Washington State 68 – (2) Stanford 75
A couple of decent games has lead us to a match between the two best teams in the conference all year. It’s probably not worth watching, however, because I’m pretty sure that if the game is close it’ll get handed to the Bruins anyway.
Mountain West
(4) San Diego State 54 – (1) BYU 63
(6) Utah 55 – (2) UNLV 61
Especially after Utah upset New Mexico, we’re getting the final that was expected. I figure this is likely enough to get UNLV in so we should see two MWC teams in the NCAA tournament.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
What a Day! Thursday's College Basketball Review
Wow, what an incredible day! We have bubble teams dropping all over the place and now we are surely to see some teams back their way into the tournament. The question is whether some of these teams will back their way in or will we see teams like South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, and Illinois State back in? Let’s get to the action!
ACC
(9) Florida State 70 – (8) Wake Forest 60
(12) N.C. State 50 – (5) Miami 63
(10) Virginia 76 – (7) Georgia Tech 94
(11) Boston College 71 – (6) Maryland 68
There were really only two games tonight with tournament implications. Miami was in good shape and needed to only avoid a bad loss. In fact, they would have been in the discussion even with a loss today. That game was never too much in doubt. The other game of interest was Boston College – Maryland. It seems unlikely that even with just one win today that the Terps would be in but losing today certainly sends them to the NIT. In the “There’s not much of a chance of this happening” department, I should note that should Florida State knock of North Carolina I think you have to start looking at their resume as well.
Big East
(8) Villanova 63 – (1) Georgetown 82
(5) West Virginia 78 – (4) Connecticut 72
(7) Pittsburgh 76 – (2) Louisville 69
(6) Marquette 89 – (3) Notre Dame 79
So, the lower seed wins three of four games. That’s not all that surprising because the top 7 in the Big East really are pretty strong and I would argue fairly equal. The big question out of the Big East is whether Villanova gets in. When they lost I was thinking they were probably in trouble (even if they pass the very subjective and hated by me “eye-test” by my eyes anyway; they look like a tournament team to me). Now with all the other outcomes of the day I think they may be OK again. We’ll see what the weekend brings, but my gut would say at this point Villanova gets in.
Atlantic 10
(8) Dayton 65 – (1) Xavier 74
(5) St. Joseph’s 61 – (4) Richmond 47
(7) La Salle 75 – (2) Temple 84
(6) Charlotte 69 – (3) Massachusetts 65
Lots of important action today in the A-10. Xavier knocks off Dayton and sends the Flyers to the NIT. St. Joseph’s easily beats Richmond. Most analysts were saying St. Joseph’s would need to beat Xavier to get a bid but with everything that happened today I think it’s possible (even if still a bit unlikely) that they could get in even without that win. It’s also time to take a closer look at Temple’s resume. Should they get to the final I think they deserve some credit for a run to the A-10 final combined with a second place regular season finish in a very good league. UMass has to be kicking themselves right now. They really blew that 17-point halftime lead in a hurry in dropping a critical game to Charlotte. That’s a horrible final impression to give to the committee and I don’t know that the rest of their resume will overcome that.
Big Ten
(9) Michigan 55 – (8) Iowa 47
(10) Illinois 64 – (7) Penn State 63
(11) Northwestern 52 – (6) Minnesota 55
Did anyone watch any of this today? The bottom half of the Big 10 is really horrible. It’s stunning that Northwestern was able to stay as close as they did for as poorly as they played.
Mid-American
(7) Eastern Michigan 61 – (2) Western Michigan 70
(6) Central Michigan 60 – (3) Akron 81
(8) Toledo 57 – (1) Kent State 77
(5) Miami 74 – (4) Ohio 61
There were no big surprises in the MAC today except perhaps for the ease at which Miami disposed of Ohio. Kent State kept their at large hopes in pretty decent shape. The better teams won to keep the semifinals of this tournament interesting.
Big 12
(9) Oklahoma State 76 – (8) Texas Tech 72
(12) Colorado 91 – (5) Baylor 84
(10) Missouri 56 – (7) Nebraska 61
(11) Iowa State 47 – (6) Texas A&M 60
What an absolutely brutal loss for Baylor. What happened in that first half? Baylor still may overcome this and get in the tournament but they gave the committee every reason to keep them out and I don’t want to hear any cries from Waco if they’re excluded. I wouldn’t have necessarily thought that beating Iowa State would be enough for Texas A&M but enough other bubble teams dropped that they might be fine now.
SEC
(5E) South Carolina 77 – (4W) LSU 73
(6W) Auburn 82 – (3E) Vanderbilt 93
(5W) Alabama 80 – (4E) Florida 69
(6E) Georgia 97 – (3W) Mississippi 95
It was funny to see Vanderbilt playing today because if you didn’t look at the standings you’d just figure they’d be good for a bye today. But that’s what happens when you sit behind Tennessee and Kentucky. Their win over Auburn was not too difficult. Florida dug themselves an incredible 28 point hole and perhaps even more incredibly almost pulled themselves out of it. Finally Alabama hit a few shots, got a few stops and pulled out the double-digit win to eliminate the Gators not only from the SEC tournament but also from NCAA tournament consideration. And what about Georgia twice fouling a three point shooter, once late in regulation to allow a tie and overtime, and once late in overtime to allow Ole Miss to tie it. And then Georgia gets a game winning jump shot under a second left from the unfortunately named Dave Bliss (if anyone knows if there is any relation between him and the other Dave Bliss please let me know; a quick Google search makes me think there is no relation). So, today in the SEC eliminates Florida and Ole Miss so we’ll likely have 5 SEC teams in.
Southland
(7) Texas Arlington 81 – (2) Lamar 75
(6) McNeese State 62 – (3) Sam Houston State 64
(8) UTSA 60 – (1) Stephen F. Austin 71
(5) Northwestern State 71 – (4) SE Louisiana 51
Heavy favorite Stephen F. Austin actually had a battle with UTSA. Now, despite the fact that Sam Houston State escaped with a win over McNeese State it seems quite likely that we’ll see a Stephen F. Austin – Sam Houston State final after the Lamar loss. And that’s fine by us.
Conference USA
(7) Tulsa 78 – (2) UAB 68
(6) UTEP 80 – (3) Houston 77
(9) Tulane 56 – (1) Memphis 75
(5) Southern Miss 68 – (4) UCF 62
Just in case Memphis wanted an easier road to the Conference USA tournament title, they got it. Houston losing was not that surprising; they really didn’t play well down the stretch. However, UAB’s loss to Tulsa was pretty shocking and that should eliminate UAB from NCAA tournament consideration. There’s not enough on the resume to justify a bid after losing this early to Tulsa.
Western Athletic
(5) Hawaii 74 – (4) Boise State 80
(8) San Jose State 65 – (1) Utah State 85
(7) Fresno State 57 – (2) Nevada 64
(6) Idaho 53 – (3) New Mexico State 73
The higher seeds won all games which was expected considering it was the WAC that had four teams at a four way tie for first place. Now Nevada has to face New Mexico State on their home floor. These semifinal games should be pretty good.
Pac 10
(5) Arizona State 55 – (4) USC 59
(9) California 66 – (1) UCLA 88
(6) Oregon 70 – (3) Washington State 75
(7) Arizona 64 – (2) Stanford 75
Well, my guess is that Arizona still gets in even with the loss to Stanford but that was helped out by the fact that Arizona State and Oregon both missed their chances to cement bids. Now they get tossed into the group with the rest of today’s losers and the losers from earlier in the week. I have no impressions right now of their chances but I feel like they should be poor.
Mountain West
(9) Colorado State 62 – (1) BYU 89
(5) Air Force 49 – (4) San Diego State 53
(7) TCU 88 – (2) UNLV 89
(6) Utah 82 – (3) New Mexico 80
My goodness, how close we were to a TCU-Utah semifinal match-up! UNLV somehow managed to overcome some outrageous three point shooting (17-23!) to beat TCU with the benefit of a made jumper with a foul called late in the contest. Then New Mexico was not able to beat Utah and we are not going to get the UNLV – New Mexico elimination game most were expecting. UNLV most certainly needs to beat Utah on Friday now.
Southwestern Athletic
(6) Arkansas Pine Bluff 72 – (3) Alabama A&M 59
(5) Southern 55 – (4) Jackson State 56
These winners get a shot at the top two seeds on Friday.
Mid-Eastern
(6) Florida A&M 61 – (3) Norfolk State 69
(5) N.C. A&T 62 – (4) Delaware State 64
Keep in mind that 2 seed Hampton has already lost to Coppin State so Norfolk State gets a bit of an advantage working towards getting to the championship game. Delaware State now faces top seeded Morgan State.
Big West
(7) UC Riverside 69 – (3) CSU Fullerton 81
(5) UC Irvine 57 – (4) Pacific 56
The UC Irvine upset over Pacific will prevent the idea semifinal day in the Big West but at least the three 12-4 regular season finishers will play as CSU Fullerton knocked off UC Riverside. The action in the Big West really starts tomorrow.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Big 12 Tournament Preview
Can Texas or Kansas garner a #1 seed with a Big 12 tournament win? Outside of this, Texas A&M is the only Big 12 team with a NCAA tournament bid on the line. They may need a win over Kansas State to assure themselves a bid. Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma are looking to improve their seeding with a strong showing.
What We're Rooting For
As a Kansas State fan, I'm hoping for a run out of the Wildcats. At this point, they seem to be sitting at a #7 or #8 seed and each win could move them up another seed. Also as a K-State fan, I'll have to take an anti-Jayhawk stance and hope they fall at some point during the tournament.
What Will Happen
Kansas and Texas are a step above rest of the league, so it won't surprise anyone to see them meet in the finals. K-State has the talent to make a run, but have sputtered down the stretch. Baylor is the other team capable of winning this tournament. The Bears have a stable full of guards that can score and if they get hot, they can outscore almost anyone they are matched up against.
Wednesday College Basketball Review
Big East
(8) Syracuse 63 – (9) Villanova 82
(12) Providence 53 – (5) West Virginia 58
(10) Cincinnati 64 – (7) Pittsburgh 70
(11) Seton Hall 54 – (6) Marquette 67
The Pitt and Marquette wins were certainly not surprising. I have to agree with Bob Knight’s assessment of the West Virginia game when he said it was more that Providence lost the game than West Virginia winning. Speaking of losing games, Syracuse managed to easily blow a first half double-digit lead. In fairness to the Orange, Villanova actually was good in the second half so it wasn’t just Syracuse losing the game. That should send Syracuse to the NIT and Villanova stays alive although they may need to beat Georgetown.
Atlantic 10
(9) Saint Louis 62 – (8) Dayton 63
(12) Fordham 62 – (5) St. Joseph’s 80
(10) Duquesne 79 – (7) La Salle 82
(11) Rhode Island 73 – (6) Charlotte 75
What a fall for Rhode Island. Honestly it wasn’t that long ago that I was thinking they were likely a NCAA tournament team. Now I wonder if they’re even an NIT team. Dayton (barely) and St. Joseph’s (easily) have stayed alive in their hopes for an at large bid. I would argue that Dayton should get in if they beat Xavier although they may need another win on top of that. St. Joseph’s likely needs two more wins.
Mid-American
(10) Ball State 55 – (7) Eastern Michigan 59
(11) Northern Illinois 71 – (6) Central Michigan 83
(9) Bowling Green 48 – (8) Toledo 52
(12) Buffalo 68 – (5) Miami 69
There were no surprises here. I’d like to know what it’s like to be a Miami fan. They seem to be involved in a disproportionately large number of tight games.
Conference USA
(10) East Carolina 49 – (7) Tulsa 66
(11) SMU 49 – (6) UTEP 71
(9) Tulane 48 – (8) Marshall 47
(12) Rice 50 – (5) Southern Miss 59
Nothing here was too noteworthy although the real teams don’t get started until tomorrow.
Mountain West
(9) Colorado State 68 – (8) Wyoming 63
Hey, that’s conference win number 1 for Colorado State! How many people think they’ll be beating BYU?
Mid-Eastern
(11) MD Eastern Shore 61 – (6) Florida A&M 70
(8) South Carolina State 68 – (1) Morgan State 77
(7) Coppin State 75 – (2) Hampton 74
Perhaps I should have seen the Coppin State upset coming. After starting the year 2-19 Coppin state had won 9 of 10 going into tonight. Still, overcoming a 15-point halftime deficit to beat the second seeded team in the conference was impressive. There were no surprises in the other games.
Southwestern Athletic
(7) Grambling State 73 – (2) Mississippi Valley State 79
(8) Texas Southern 49 – (1) Alabama State 67
As expected the top two SWAC teams. We’ll see tomorrow who they’ll face in the semifinals Friday.
Northeast
(4) Mount St. Mary’s 68 – (3) Sacred Heart 55
It was a bit surprising to see Mount St. Mary’s win his one on the road by double digits. They are a strong play-in game candidate.
Big Sky
(2) Northern Arizona 51 – (1) Portland State 67
That was a pretty convincing win for Portland State and they’re really not that bad. If they play well (and get matched up well) they could put a scare into some 2 seed.
Big West
(8) Long Beach State 63 – (5) UC Irvine 77
(7) UC Riverside 62 – (6) Cal Poly 54
There was a clear division in the Big West between the top four seeds and everyone else. Seeds 3 and 4 get going tomorrow but the top 2 seeds don’t get going until Friday. Today was just a warm-up.
Pac 10
(9) California 84 – (8) Washington 81
(10) Oregon State 56 – (7) Arizona 87
Well, Oregon State proved for the final time this year that they are horrible. Cal might be able to give UCLA a battle (if the Pac 10 refs allow it).
SEC Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
There is a lot still to be decided in the SEC. Really this is one of the more interesting major conference tournaments. Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are the only three teams that are completely locked into an at large bid. It’s still questionable as to whether Arkansas and Kentucky would get the at large bid if they lose their first game although I tend to guess yes for both. The interesting thing is that both of those teams could face tough games in Vanderbilt (for Arkansas) and Ole Miss (for Kentucky). Speaking of Ole Miss, could the Rebels make a run to the finals and get an at large bid? It certainly would not be surprising looking at their side of the bracket. And what about the two-time defending national champs? Florida should be able to get by Alabama on Thursday but then what about their match-up with Mississippi State? Would beating Mississippi State be enough or do they need to get to the SEC championship game?
What We’re Rooting For
Chalk. Florida should not get rewarded for their non-conference schedule so we’re rooting for the Gators to get bounced early. Ole Miss could get in the picture as Arkansas did last year. Perhaps they even have remembered how to win now that they’ve taken 3 straight after a horrible start to the conference year. But I don’t want to have to think about it; they haven’t done enough to intrigue me. If we saw the Eastern and Western division’s top two teams in the semis it would represent some order and that sounds refreshing.
What Will Happen
Big 10 Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
The most interesting thing to watch for in the Big 10 is whether Ohio State can beat Michigan State to get an at large bid. I still think they need to do it. Another thing to watch for is whether any of the teams that play Thursday can beat the top 5 in the league. If that were to happen it will probably be Minnesota beating Indiana.
What We’re Rooting For
Right now we don’t think Ohio State is a tournament quality team. They have not done more with their schedule than we think other bubble teams would do but that might chance with another quality win. We’re rooting for Michigan State to knock off the Buckeyes but outside of that we don’t care a whole lot what happens to the top 4.
What Will Happen
ACC Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
There is quite a bit to watch for. How far does North Carolina need to get for a one seed? What kind of seed can Duke get? But you know us; we care more about the bubble scene than the top seeds. Would Miami get in if they lose to NC State? How many wins are needed for Virginia Tech and Maryland to get in? Can any other team get in by making a run this weekend in Charlotte?
What We’re Rooting For
Outside of North Carolina, Duke, and Clemson, the ACC basically has been a big, long regular season NIT. We would prefer to keep these NIT quality teams in the NIT and away from the NCAA tournament. Actually, we can handle Miami getting in but we’ll be rooting for early losses from Virginia Tech and Maryland.
What Will Happen
Southland Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
I don’t know how often there are two top 100 teams in the Southland conference but my guess is it’s not very often. Actually Stephen F. Austin was an overtime buzzer beater in a loss at Nicholls State and a poor shooting night combined with hot shooting from Texas Arlington away from being a legitimate at large candidate. Had they won those two games they’d sit at 15-1 in the conference and have non-conference wins over Oklahoma and San Diego. In addition, their RPI would likely be in the top 50. Sam Houston State struggled to a 10-6 conference record but they still hold a top 100 RPI.
What We’re Rooting For
It’s pretty obvious that we’re rooting for Stephen F. Austin to take the automatic bid. We’re excited to see how Josh Alexander would fare against better competition. Alexander struggled mightily in a 16 point loss to Texas Tech, scoring just 3 points while being limited to 16 minutes due to foul trouble. He scored a team leading 19 in the Oklahoma win despite needing 17 shots to get there. He scored 22 on San Diego. His shooting ability could give a 4 seed trouble if the Lumberjacks get a bid.
What Will Happen
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Tuesday College Basketball Review
Summit League
(2) IUPUI 64 – (1) Oral Roberts 71
It’s pretty impressive that despite what was lost last year that Oral Roberts is able to grab the automatic bid yet again. Now they’re likely looking at a 14 seed or so and given a good match-up they might be able to put a scare into someone. Oral Roberts won’t be able to keep up with high scoring teams but their defense is solid and they could scare a team prone to scoring droughts.
Horizon
(2) Cleveland State 55 – (1) Butler 70
Bubble teams can take a breather here because Butler saved a bid. The question here is what kind of seed can they receive? A five seems most likely but a four is possible.
Sun Belt
(4) Middle Tennessee State 57 – (3) Western Kentucky 67
Middle Tennessee State was a nice story but Western Kentucky winning this game makes for a better NCAA tournament and that’s really what we’re rooting for. The neat part is that they were able to pick up this win when star Courtney Lee was pretty much horrible. In fact, second leading scorer Tyrone Brazelton needed 2/10 shooting and 9/11 from the line (Middle Tennessee State couldn’t handle his quickness) to get his 13 points. Winning by double digits with those numbers from their stars is impressive. I guess that’s what happens when Jeremy Evans was an absolute stud.
MEAC
(10) Howard 54 – (7) Coppin State 55
(9) Bethune-Cookman 69 – (8) South Carolina State 78
This was just the opening round match-ups to see who gets to play the Morgan State (the one seed) and Hampton (the two seed).
Big Sky
(3) Weber State 70 – (2) Northern Arizona 75
(4) Idaho State 61 – (1) Portland State 72
The outcomes of these games ensure that tomorrow night we’ll get the top two teams in the conference battling it out for the automatic bid with Portland State as the clear favorite due to being the better team and playing on their home floor.
WAC
(9) Louisiana Tech 62 – (8) San Jose State 64
This was just a play-in game to see who gets to play one seed Utah State. That’s not a gimmie for Utah State because they split their regular season games with the Spartans and their home win was by only five points.
Pac-10 Tournament Preview
The Pac-10 tournament could have tournament ramifications for seven teams. Three Pac-10 teams enter the conference tournament dangerously close to the bubble (Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon), USC, Stanford and Washington St could improve their seeding with a strong performance while UCLA is looking to lock up a #1 seed. Arizona is the only potential tournament team playing in the first round, but their first-round match-up with Oregon St should not be a problem. The quarterfinals will provide an opportunity for each bubble team to pick up a huge win; that's the good news. The bad news for those teams is that they were all swept by their quarterfinal opponent (ASU by USC, Arizona by Stanford, and Oregon by Washington St).
What We're Rooting For
The Pac-10 deserves more than four teams in the tournament, so we will be rooting for at least one of those bubble teams to earn a bid with a quarterfinal victory. I've been unimpressed with Arizona all year long, so if there's one bubble team that I will be cheering against in the quarterfinals it will be the Wildcats.
What Will Happen
Your guess is as good as mine. Any of the potential NCAA teams could make a run to a Pac-10 title. UCLA appears to be the class of the conference but if the Pac-10 had competent officials they would be entering the tournament with a two-game losing streak. The Bruins are still the odds on favorite to win the tournament but my dark horse pick is USC. The Trojans finished the year strong and have defeated UCLA, so a run by USC would not be surprising.
SWAC Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
You’d be watching to get a sneak peak at a play-in game team. Only one school (Alabama State) has a overall record above .500 and they managed one out of conference victory (and that was over SMU).
What We’re Rooting For
It might be tough to find a team in this conference that is likely to be competitive even in the play-in game. I guess we’ll root for the one team with a RPI better than 249 and that’s Alabama State. Then there’s the fact that Alabama State has mammoth 7-1 center Chief Kickingstallionsims. So, that’s fun.
What Will Happen
Mountain West Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
How many bids will the Mountain West end up getting? I think the most realistic guess is two with the winners being BYU and the winner of a UNLV-New Mexico likely semifinal match up. With the tournament being played at UNLV it seems likely that it will be UNLV
What We’re Rooting For
Because we think UNLV is actually better than New Mexico we want UNLV to beat New Mexico and face BYU in the final. Luckily the smart guess is that this is exactly what will happen.
What Will Happen
How many home conference losses does UNLV have? The answer is zero. Granted, this did not end up mattering in the Sun Belt where undefeated at home in conference South Alabama lost in the semifinals but it still makes UNLV the safest bet. In UNLV’s two home wins over the two MWC teams the Rebels beat BYU by a staggering 29 points and they beat New Mexico by 19. BYU is the conference’s best team but they’re not better than UNLV at UNLV. We’ll pick the Rebels to take the bid.
Mid-American Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
Will Kent State end up winning the conference tournament or will they end up costing the bubble another bid. Kent State will likely grab an at large bid, although if I were them I wouldn’t want to risk it by losing to the Toledo-Bowling Green winner (and they have lost to both of those teams this year). Still, their 9 top 100 RPI wins and their win of the MAC, despite being in the more difficult East Division should get them in. There will be several bubble teams rooting for the Golden Flashes to save a bubble bid.
What We’re Rooting For
If a team had separated itself to be a clear number two we’d be rooting for that bid to get in the tournament as well. Instead it is unclear who is the number two. Is it Western Michigan, the winner of the West Division? Is it Akron, who finished as the three seed with 11 conference wins? Is it Ohio, who has beaten Kent State as well as Cornell, Maryland, and George Mason in the nonconference? Is it Miami, who played an outrageous out of conference schedule and has wins over Xavier, South Alabama, and Mississippi State? I don’t know the answer to that. Although it would not be devastating if any of those teams took the automatic bid we would be fine with Kent State just locking up the singular Mid-American bid.
What Will Happen
We’d be happy with the semifinals including the teams that have been mentioned and it seems likely that it will happen; the bad teams in the MAC are really bad. It still seems likely that Kent State’s talent, led by POY Al Fisher, will prevail.
Conference USA Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
Can anybody beat Memphis? Can UAB get an at large bid if they lose to Memphis? My gut says no to each of those questions. Memphis is tough enough to beat as it is but at the FedEx Forum it’s tougher. And UAB’s best win right now is probably at Kentucky and that was when everyone was beating Kentucky. Their second best in was at home against Houston. They also have 5 losses to sub 100 RPI teams. That could be overcome if there was something to stand out on the resume; there’s not.
What We’re Rooting For
Robert Vaden is fun to watch and I want to say we’re rooting for UAB to upset Memphis so we can see him on the NCAA stage but his team just is not worthy. We’ll take Memphis to just wrap up the automatic bid and pull a one seed.
What Will Happen
Big West Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
The talent in the Big West is pretty concentrated on the top four teams (and I suppose you can add UC Irvine to that). UCSB, Cal State Northridge, and Cal State Fullerton all tied for first in the conference and Pacific finished a game back. However, the Big West is one of those conference tournaments that protects the top two seeds by giving them a bye into the semifinals. By virtue of tiebreakers, UCSB and Cal State Northridge receive those byes. So, although Cal State Fullerton will need to win an additional game, that game will be against the Cal Poly-UC Riverside winner and Cal State Fullerton was 4-0 against those schools with not one of those games decided by single digits. Pacific split with UC Irvine so they could have trouble in that game assuming UC Riverside gets past the 8 seed Long Beach State. Assuming the top four seeds make the semifinals we could see some interesting basketball.
What We’re Rooting For
We’re rooting for interesting basketball. There is no clear favorite if the top 4 seeds are in the semifinals and that means interesting basketball. We would be fine with any of the top seeds winning the automatic bid.
What Will Happen
Big East Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
We care much more about the bubble picture than the picture of the big guns so the game we’re most interested in here is that Villanova-Syracuse match up. I also think that most years West Virginia’s resume would mean they should be right on the bubble even if that means this year they’re pretty safe. That said, it would still be a bad idea to lose to Providence. Luckily for the Mountaineers they have beaten Providence twice this year by a combined 39 points. Outside of the bubble teams, if chalk holds (or if Marquette or Cincinnati pull the quarterfinal upsets) we are likely to see some real good basketball come the semifinals. Those games should say more about whether certain teams are 3s or 4s or 5s than anything else and I do not think that’s too important, but it should be fun basketball to watch.
What We’re Rooting For
Villanova. My dislike for Jim Boeheim has been stated before and I seeing him happy would be pretty upsetting. Outside of that I’d be interested in seeing what happens to West Virginia if they lose to Providence so I’ll root for that as well.
What Will Happen
That Villanova-Syracuse game should be interesting. Both teams won on their opponent’s home floor by double digits. Putting a gun to my head I’d pick Syracuse to win that game because I think they can out-talent Villanova despite Syracuse’s propensity to throw games away at times. I also would certainly not be surprised to see the winner of this game lock up a bid by upsetting Georgetown. The Hoyas have made a habit out of winning close games but when you are constantly in close games you are bound to lose one. It’s that fact that leads me to believe the Hoyas will not take the automatic bid and instead it will go to a Louisville team that is playing real well he last month or so.
A-10 Tournament Preview
What to Watch For
Who will join Xavier in the NCAA tournament? Right now really only UMass seems to be a good bet. However, even UMass has to play the Charlotte-Rhode Island winner in the quarterfinals. Rhode Island somehow ended up being the 11 seed in this tournament, by the way. I would guess Rhode Island is the best 11 seed ever in the A-10. I think Temple also still has a shot at an at large bid were they to beat UMass in the semifinals and then lose to Xavier in the finals. The other two teams that are alive are Dayton and St. Joseph’s. They both may need to beat Xavier (well, at least Dayton; St. Joseph’s might have a chance even with a loss to Xavier).
What We’re Rooting For
We are for maximizing the good A-10 teams that make the NCAA tournament. That would mean maximum wins for Dayton, St. Joseph’s, Temple, and UMass. That would make that the semifinal. After that we’re not sure what the ramifications would be of different outcomes; this would be chaotic.
What Will Happen
If we had a choice between taking Xavier or the field we’d bet our money on the field despite the fact that Xavier is clearly the A-10s best team. Well, picking the field doesn’t say much. That would mean the safest bet would have to be the best team on the other side of the bracket to give more opportunities for a Xavier loss. Yes, based on this logic we should still take Xavier but instead we’ll pick UMass to snag the automatic bid.