Some more NBA early entry guys

Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Russell Westbrook

Without reading too closely that looks like UCLA will be losing like 10 players but it’s actually only three names (although I still kind of expect to hear Darren Collison declare as well). UCLA’s incoming recruiting class is pretty ridiculous with 4 borderline top 50 guys, but it’s asking a lot of freshmen, even very talented ones, to overcome these losses. As far as these guys in the pros, I don’t love any of them. Clearly Mbah a Moute is the least highly regarded of the three and I think he’s probably a second round pick at this point. Because of that I would actually expect him to be back at UCLA next year. Love and Westbrook have said they plan on keeping their eligibility in case they change their minds, but they’re not changing their minds. Love is probably a mid first rounder at this point and I do think he will have value in the NBA because he is clearly skilled. His deficiencies have also been well documented and for good reason; they will likely keep him from being a star. Westbrook has said if he’s not likely a top 20 pick he might be coming back. Because I have a hard time seeing him fall below 10 I think it’s essentially a lock that he’ll be in the NBA next year. That’s too bad because although Westbrook clearly has the athleticism he’s not a great shooter and I don’t think he has the point guard skills. Other than athleticism I’m not sure what his NBA quality skills are but if he’ll be drafted in the top 10 he’s got to go.

Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur

Rush is officially done at Kansas after declaring the second time and signing with an agent. Rush is a poor bet to be an NBA star but that’s OK with where he’ll likely get drafted. With his overall talent and shooting ability he should be a decent starter or a very good player off the bench. I figure he’ll go in the mid to late first round. Arthur is not signing an agent but he figures to be a mid first rounder so I would not count on seeing him in Lawrence next year. Arthur is frustrating because you see something like the national title game and he’s incredible. Then again, you might have watched one of the eight games this year when he couldn’t score 8 points. The talent is there but the consistency is not. I have a hard time seeing him doing much in the NBA for a few years.

Jeremy Pargo

I like Pargo a lot and I think he can be every bit as good as his brother (and I do view his brother as a solid bench player). Jeremy isn’t going to sniff the first round this year though so he’d be well advised to return to school and I figure he probably will.

Bill Walker

Walker has preserved his eligibility and I’d be curious from someone that knows his situation better than I do (Chad?) what will likely happen with him. If I were an NBA team I’d want to see another year of him progressing both from injury and in terms of building skills. He can be a beast but I still think he needs to work on his ball handling and outside shooting which should help his ability to be a good penetrator (because his body seems to be made for that).

Derrick Rose to the NBA

Memphis point guard Derrick Rose is headed to the NBA. The first several times I saw Rose play I did not get the hype. Sure, he had good size for a point guard and sure he seemed to be a good athlete (after all, he did go to Memphis). I didn’t see the basketball skill everyone else sees. Then as I watched more and more I’d see more skill. He’s great for Calipari’s offense.

But I hear comparisons to Jason Kidd and I just don’t get it. Despite the fact that he can absolutely take a game over for stretches I don’t see anywhere near the floor vision Kidd has. I also don’t think he makes great decisions on the fast break. I’ve seen him attack when nothing is there and pick up charges and I’ve seen him pull back when something actually was there. I guess my problem isn’t so much with Rose as it is with the comparison to guys like Kidd.

I have also heard people comparing him to Deron Williams and Chris Paul, but I think that’s more just a, “Hey, those guys are good young point guards. Rose is a good young point guard too!” thing. And that’s fine. But I think to expect Rose to have as strong and impressive an early impact as those two guys is unrealistic.

Despite all of that, he clearly has talent and I no longer have a problem with him probably going number 2 in the draft, although talks of number 1 are insane. I no longer look at Rose as an over-hyped point guard that I wouldn’t want my team touching, but based on some of the expectations I’m hearing about him general disappointment would not surprise me.

Early Entry Thus Far

So, I think this is a relatively full list of guys that have announced they will enter the NBA Draft early. I have separated them into lists of guys that I’m sure are gone and guys that I think might end up back in school. I’ll comment on all the guys that are likely staying in the draft and the rest of them at once.

Likely Staying In

Joe Alexander – Alexander has said he doesn’t he himself leaving but I tend to think he’s a first round lock so I’m guessing he’ll stay in. However, considering next year should be a weaker draft and he came on the scene relatively late it’s possible he could go earlier in 2009 so I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays his senior year at West Virginia. Obviously WVU’s season next year hinges strongly on this decision; if Alexander returns he’ll come back to a pretty talented team (with Ruoff, Butler, Mazzulla and others) that should compete well in the Big East.

Ryan Anderson – I see Anderson staying as well because I see him as a late second rounder. Again, the hope for Cal fans is that the 2009 draft should be weaker so he could go quite a bit higher then. Despite the hiring of Montgomery I’m not sure that returning to Berkeley would sound that great to Anderson.

Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger – As far as I can tell neither of these guys have signed with an agent yet but they’re both likely lottery picks (even if I’m not convinced either of them deserve it) so it would be pretty crazy for them to go back to Arizona. The ramifications for Arizona are obviously huge; anytime you might lose two lottery picks off your team early that’s gotta be tough to come back from. With Olson returning and a big-time freshman class coming in, the possible of Bayless and Budinger could make Arizona one of the top teams in the nation next year. Unfortunately for Wildcat fans it’s likely not going to happen but maybe that’s karma for Arizona fans being idiots.

Michael Beasley – Stunning! With all the press Rose has been getting for some reason Beasley is not considered the obvious number one pick. Beasley should be the obvious number one pick.

Derrick Caracter and Earl Clark – Well, I’m not sure how much of a choice Caracter has because I don’t know that he’s welcome back to Louisville but he’s not going to be a very high pick. I’m not sure I see Clark as being as good as the experts say he is but that is all the more reason for him to jump at going now while the stock is hot.

Eric Gordon – I certainly don’t blame Gordon for wanting to go. He’s still probably a top 10 pick and as good as Crean may be, Gordon went to Indiana to play for Sampson. Still, as good as a season as Gordon had, he was certainly trending downwards at the end of the year and there is a good chance he’d go higher in 2009. There is also a chance that Gordon is not as good as his potential has shown and he’d slip further. So, Gordon is definitely leaving and the future of Indiana is a mess (at least for a couple years).

Donte Greene – Greene is interesting because if you catch him for the right couple of minutes then you think he’s a top 5-8 pick. But if you watch him any other time you might not even notice him. As a result, his potential has him on the lottery bubble. That’s a shame for Syracuse because they have a ton of talent coming back and some nice talent coming in; Greene would help that a lot and with Greene it’s even possible that Syracuse could be an NCAA tournament team! (That is of course assuming Boeheim could see through his whiny tears enough to decide to coach his team.)

J.J. Hickson – Hickson is pretty good but I’m not convinced his stock will ever get much higher considering height limitations as a four. He could probably benefit from some extra time working on his post game but I’m not convinced that working on that post game would actually improve his NBA stock (as much as it would likely improve his NBA game)

DeAndre Jordan – Jordan needs to get to the NBA now. He’s likely a top 10 pick despite not having done anything except look like he might one day be exciting. If basketball ability never follows that potential then his stock could plummet. Who’s to say he’ll ever actually be worthy of a top 10 pick? As long as he’s viewed as such he needs to get there in a hurry before people realize he is still not good at basketball.

Brook and Robin Lopez – Anytime you’re likely a top 4 pick you must go so Brook obviously needs to get going to the NBA. I understand that the Lopez brothers have said that they want to go pro at the same time but I think Robin could benefit from another year in college. Robin is likely a first round pick too so it’s not a horrible decision but I wouldn’t be stunned if Robin could be a lottery pick in 2009 especially if he got some of Brook’s touches in his extra year.

O.J. Mayo – Mayo is still probably a top 5 pick and this was a pretty obvious move. He probably deserves it too.

JaVale McGee – McGee is pretty good but I’d be interested to see what he might do at Nevada if he were the number one offensive option (rather than Kemp). Considering I have no idea what would happen if that were the case it’s a great idea for McGee declare and sign with an agent. McGee is probably going to go in the mid-teens now and I have no idea what might happen to his stock were he to stay in school.

Anthony Randolph – This is another textbook case of a guy that might end up being good but it’s just too early to know. But, because of that potential people like him as a top 10 pick so he’d be an idiot not to leave school. I’d be curious to see what would happen to Randolph’s development under Trent Johnson but we’re not going to see it.

May Be Back In School

Richard Hendrix, Ronald Steele

Trent Plaisted

Marreese Speights

Robert Vaden

Terrence Williams

Alabama might be something special with Hendrix and Steele and my guess is they’ll be back because I don’t know that either of them will be first round picks. Plaisted is good but if he could have a more consistent senior season he might be a top 20 pick and right now I don’t see him in the first round. Speights might stay in because he could be a first round pick but with another year next year like he had this past year he could find himself in the lottery. Vaden’s game is just not diverse enough to warrant a first round pick so he will likely come back. Williams is also likely a second rounder so he will likely return to Louisville.

I’ll try to comment on some more early entry candidates as the news comes forward.