A Very Early Look at College Basketball 2008-09

Even with the rough trip to Tampa, the Cubs have me freaking out about the possibilities this summer so to keep sane I need to be thinking about some basketball. The following are some stories to keep an eye on for next year. As always, we welcome your comments!

The West Coast Conference

The three WCC teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year figure to be strong again next year. Gonzaga is a darkhorse Final Four team now that Jeremy Pargo has decided to withdraw from the NBA Draft. St. Mary’s has lost a couple of valuable players in Todd Golden and Tron Smith but they return Patty Mills and they figure to be real good again. Keep an eye on San Diego. They didn’t lose anyone from last year’s team and Gyno Pomare and Brandon Johnson are a dynamite combo.

Davidson

Losing Boris Meno, Thomas Sander, and Jason Richards will be a test for Davidson but they still figure to be awfully dangerous. My big question for Davidson is how Stephen Curry will do without a terrific point guard like Richards to set things up for him. Curry will not have to attempt to return to the Elite Eight on his own as he’ll have Andrew Lovedale, who had a real good NCAA Tournament, a fellow shooter in Bryant Barr, and other quality contributors like William Archambault and Max Paulhus Gosselin.

Top Teams

Obviously North Carolina is going to be incredible next year with everyone back. After that though it seems like a crapshoot. There will be some strong teams in the Big East including Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and Notre Dame. Purdue looks interesting in the Big 10 although they would be more interesting with Scott Martin. I’m not sold on anyone in the SEC, Big 12, Pac 10, or Memphis.

Top Mid Major Teams

Last year we had Drake (who loses three quality starters), Davidson (who, as was already mentioned, figures to be real good), Kent State (who returns stud Al Fisher and should be amongst the best in the MAC), Western Kentucky (who loses Courtney Lee to the NBA and Tyrone Brazelton to pro basketball somewhere), Butler (loses a boatload of guys) and South Alabama (who loses seniors Demetric Bennett and Daon Merritt). Of these schools it is probably most worthwhile to keep an eye on Drake, Davidson, and Kent State. Who else should we watch in 2008-09?

Siena had their win over Vanderbilt in the NCAA Tournament and they lose just one starter. Siena figures to be incredibly entertaining and dangerous. I am certainly biased, but Creighton should be dangerous with a deep group of good guards led by P’Allen Stinnett. Cleveland State returns most of their roster including J’Nathan Bullock and the Vikings could end Butler’s reign of terror on the Horizon League. VCU loses three of their top six scorers but one of the returnees is Eric Maynor and obviously he’s awesome so VCU should be dangerous. Keep an eye on Stephen F. Austin who returns most of their players from a quality team last year.

Tyler Hansbrough

Do you already want to turn off your TV because of the inevitable slobbering over Hansbrough’s intangibles? The worst part about that is Hansbrough is actually talented and skilled. I care way more about that than his competitiveness.

Pac 10

Arizona State did not make the NCAA Tournament last year but they might have a chance to actually win the Pac 10 this year. Who else is in it? Well, UCLA returns some quality players and they bring in a great recruiting class but they did lose two likely lottery picks. The Bruins are likely the favorites in the conference. Arizona got good, surprising news when Chase Budinger decided to return to school but unless Brandon Jennings is able to get eligible it could be a struggle there. Stanford loses the Lopez’s, USC loses OJ Mayo, Washington State lost a handful of guys, and Arizona State loses…..Antwi Atuahene? It should be a good year for the Sun Devils.

Lack of NCAA Tournament Worthy Teams

Will it be even harder to find 65 teams to play in March 2009 than it was in March 2008? I think the Big East might get in like 37 teams but I see a lot of rebuilding to be done in the Pac 10, in the Big 10, in the Big 12, and to a lesser degree in the SEC. The ACC should be better as far as bids go but I’m not sure by how much. This bodes well for some of the mid majors.

All-Americans

Who will be this year’s All-Americans? Here are a few candidates.

Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
James Harden, Arizona State
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Stephen Curry, Davidson
A.J. Abrams, Texas
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Darren Collison, UCLA
Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga
Jeff Pendergraph, Arizona State
Jack McClinton, Miami
A.J. Ogilvy, Vanderbilt
Patrick Patterson, Kentucky
Nick Calathes, Florida
Tyler Smith, Tennessee
A.J. Price, Connecticut
Tyrese Rice, Boston College
Eric Maynor, VCU
Robbie Hummel, Purdue
Patrick Mills, St. Mary’s
Robert Vaden, UAB
Stefon Jackson, UTEP
Josh Young, Drake
Al Fisher, Kent State
Osiris Eldridge, Illinois State
Dionte Christmas, Temple
J’Nathan Bullock, Cleveland State
Edwin Ubiles, Siena
Lee Cummard, BYU
Lorrenzo Wade, San Diego State
Wink Adams, UNLV

The Ultimate Mock Draft

Time for another look at mock NBA draft comparisons. I used the same mocks as last time with two taken out. I took out Draft Empire’s mock because they still have Ty Lawson listed and I took out The Hoops Report because they have Alexis Ajinca listed twice. If you have another two-round mock in the internet that you would like me to include go ahead and post a link in the comments and I’ll see if I can add it.

Check out the ultimate mock draft here!

There are a couple of things to look at. The top four picks look somewhat agreed upon as going Rose, Beasley, Mayo, and Bayless (with the only exception of one draft picking Beasley first and one somehow having Mayo drop to 6). After that there is very little agreement. The mocks have Eric Gordon going between 6 and 13, Anthony Randolph between 3 and 12, and Darrell Arthur between 9 and 18. Those are just a few examples of how things get messy after the first four picks.

NBA Early Entry Withdrawals

Take a look at the final list of early entry candidates for the NBA Draft and then check out some of the ramifications. There were a few interesting subplots that came following the passing withdrawal deadline. Let’s take a peek at them.

North Carolina will be ridiculous next year

The biggest news is the return of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green to North Carolina. At this point not only is North Carolina the favorite to win the national title next year but it doesn’t seem particularly close. The biggest surprise of those three was definitely the return of Lawson as it seemed he was in decent shape to get taken in the first round.

Will Rick Pitino allow Derrick Caracter back on his squad?

Caracter is going back to Louisville despite the fact that Pitino has already discussed Caracter’s Louisville career in the past tense and he hasn’t seemed too anxious to get him back. Caracter has said he’s taking summer classes, he’s currently eligible and wants to talk to Pitino about getting back on the team this month. Caracter has been saying all the right things so far and it’s possible that he’s turned things around, but considering that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, I wouldn’t count on it.

Will UCLA have enough coming back (and coming in) to compete for a national title?

Surprisingly Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is not going back to Westwood but UCLA will be getting back Josh Shipp. Shipp, combined with Darren Collison and arguably the nations best recruiting class, should keep UCLA towards the top of the Pac 10. What that means on the national landscape is less clear. Considering UCLA is losing a couple of lottery picks early to the NBA makes this more impressive.

How will Memphis do in the post-Rose/Douglas-Roberts era?

The decisions of Robert Dozier and Antonio Anderson to return to school certainly don’t hurt that cause. Neither does their recruiting class. They’ll have to figure out where the offense is coming from without Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts. I doubt they are national title contenders again next year but they should still have enough to overcome Robert Vaden and UAB.

Is Marquette a darkhorse Final Four candidate?

Tom Crean’s old team would beat Tom Crean’s new team by about 40 points if they played next year. What does that mean for the Golden Eagles? Well, with the return of Jerel McNeal they return the country’s best backcourt. (Am I right there? Whose is better?) Although I’m not sure what they’ll have available in the post, with those guards they can get by without much. It figures to hurt that they lost Ousmane Barro but that backcourt figures to make Marquette a terrifying match-up.

Can Jeremy Pargo take Gonzaga to the next level?

The return of Pargo to Spokane has to have Gonzaga excited. Pargo gives Gonzaga a potential All-American at guard on what figures to be a real nice, deep roster. What is the next level for Gonzaga? It’s probably a Final Four run. That seems unlikely for Gonzaga but if they get some of their guys to improve their game and stay away from the shrooms they have a shot in a year that might be short on upper echelon teams outside of Chapel Hill city limits.

What is with Chase Budinger?

Budinger was pretty much a lock for the first round. He’s a good bet to go higher next year but without Bayless and Brandon Jennings’ eligibility not yet a certainty there are a lot of questions in Arizona this off-season. I have no idea what the floor or ceiling are at this point at Arizona but it should be a fun story to watch next season.

Do you want to come back to www.bizarrojoelunardi.com next Thursday night to participate in a liveblog of the NBA Draft?

Yes, you do. We did this on Selection Sunday and had some good conversation and debate and I’m looking forward to doing it again for the NBA Draft. So, come back next week and join us for a chat during the draft!