MIDWEST REGION
1 – Louisville vs 16 – Alabama State/Morehead State
I totally buy Louisville as having earned the #1 overall seed in this tournament. They earned the #1 seed in the conference tournament for arguably the best conference in America, and then they won that tournament. With North Carolina’s loss early in the ACC Tournament, Louisville seemed to me to be the only choice. After giving all that support to Louisville, I would not argue they are the best team in the country. Balance is nice, and Terrence Williams and Earl Clark are pretty wonderful, but there are several potential match-ups in the field where the opponent will have the best player. It also disturbs me that a team with guys like Williams, Clark, and Samardo Samuels does not do better on the glass. Their three biggest losses on the year (Western Kentucky, Connecticut, and Notre Dame) had them beat on the glass by a combined 41 rebounds.
As far as the play-in game goes, I think we have two possibilities. One is that people will get to talk about the giant monstrosity that is Chief Kickingstallionsims (he is more than a fun name; the dude is 7-1, 265!). The other possibility is a lot of immature Morehead jokes. I would recommend getting those fellatio jokes ready to roll.
8 – Ohio State vs 9 – Siena
Ohio State relies pretty heavily on Evan Turner, Jon Diebler, and William Buford. That’s OK though because those guys are pretty good and provide good punch from the perimeter. The Buckeyes would be much more dangerous if they could get something out of B.J. Mullens, because he is really the only post scoring presence Ohio State has. Dallas Lauderdale is a good defensive player and a wonderful shot blocker. This first round game could obviously go either way, but I have a hard time seeing Ohio State getting past Louisville.
If B.J. Mullens is ever going to have a big game it may be against Siena. Siena is a really fun team to watch with an incredibly good starting five, but they lack a lot of size. Ryan Rossiter has played well this year as their big man, but he is 6-8 227, a far cry from the size Mullens brings to the table. Outside of point guard Ronald Moore, Siena probably turns the ball over a bit more frequently than you would like, but the big three in the rotation are pretty wonderful. Ohio State will have a tough time with Kenny Hasbrouck, Edwin Ubiles, and Alex Franklin. This first round match-up is about as tight as can be. I am not sure who I will eventually pick to win, but I am not convinced either team has the post presence to take advantage of Louisville in the second round.
5 – Utah vs 12 – Arizona
Expect to see no more than 7 Utes see the floor next weekend but the size of Luke Nevill might make it seem like 10. Nevill is an efficient offensive player and a good rebounder and shot blocker. Utah has other capable scorers, particularly Lawrence Borha and Shaun Green, but to make any kind of run in the tournament they will need Nevill playing well. I fear Utah’s perimeter quickness and the fact that they’re turnover prone (I don’t think they have a good, true point guard) will eventually be their undoing.
The problem Arizona has in trying to stop the Utah offense is that Arizona does not really stop anybody’s offense. Arizona’s chances in the tournament are pretty clear, and they revolve around Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Nic Wise. Hill and Budinger are likely lottery picks and Wise is a fringe NBA player. Anytime you have that kind of talent on the floor, you stand a chance. The problem is that the NCAA Tournament is not a 3-on-3 battle. It is this lack of depth and the inability to play defense that has turned Arizona into a #2 seed in the NIT this year.
4 – Wake Forest vs 13 – Cleveland State
Wake Forest might be the most talented team in this entire field. Jeff Teague is a great guard (even if he is not a great point guard), Al-Farouq Aminu is a possible #1 NBA Draft pick whenever he decides to come out, and James Johnson might also be a first round pick. If Wake Forest gets into an up and down game and can use their incredible post athleticism (and avoid having to showcase their basketball skills), I am not sure if there is anyone that can beat them. Unfortunately, this Wake Forest team is still young and controlling tempo may not be easy. Earlier in the year when Wake Forest was playing well, I considered Wake Forest a potential national champion team. I now think they lack consistency for that, and in fact, if they play like they did against Maryland (lazy) they will not get past Cleveland State.
Bubble teams were upset when Cleveland State went into Hinkle and beat Butler for the automatic bid. That really was not all that surprising as Cleveland State was probably the most physically talented team in the Horizon League this year. They play solid defense and are not a bad rebounding team, despite being undersized. As a pretty bad shooting team, sometimes points can be hard to come by, but if J’Nathan Bullock can score on the inside and get some help on the perimeter from Norris Cole and Cedric Jackson, I give the Vikings a chance. The only way they will get this chance, however, is to control tempo. If they can keep Wake Forest from running and turn it into a halfcourt game, Cleveland State’s defense could keep them in this game and maybe give them a win.
6 – West Virginia vs 11 – Dayton
West Virginia can pose teams problems with their size. They are not huge in the post, but 6 of the 7 guys they will play are 6-6 or taller. Pomeroy loves this team, with a defensive ranking of 7th, an offensive ranking of 15th, and an overall ranking of 8th. They could be a pretty good sleeper pick as a 6 seed. If they can get good perimeter shooting from Darryl Bryant, Alex Ruoff, and Da’Sean Butler, they will be very tough to beat. It would be fun, and not all that surprising, if this tournament turns into a coming out party for the spectacular freshman Devin Ebanks. I think I like this team making a run.
Dayton is a solid defensive team with good athletes. They can pressure the perimeter and force a bunch of steals. Chris Wright is a huge talent that can play with anything West Virginia will put on the floor. As far as Dayton’s offense goes, they play pretty good defense. I am excited to get to see Chris Wright maybe get matched up a bit against Ebanks and Marcus Johnson is a pretty solid player too. I just don’t see how this team scores enough to keep up with West Virginia.
3 – Kansas vs 14 – North Dakota State
Bill Self has rightly gotten a bunch of consideration for national coach of the year. He has done a really good job with a team with just one senior (little used Matt Kleinmann) and he spread around his minutes well. This team should be ready for a really good run in the NCAA Tournament next year. Kansas lacks the consistency you would like to see out of 3 seeds, losing games to teams that were unable to put together an NCAA Tournament worthy resume, including Massachusetts, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Arizona. Athleticism and rebounding should serve them pretty well, but I am not convinced it will be enough to get them out of the first weekend. In fact, they might even get a scare from North Dakota State.
Kansas better have on their defending shoes when they face North Dakota State. Ben Woodside is a stud and it would be fun to see him put up another 60 on the Jayhawks. However, check out the numbers on not only Woodside, but his teammates Brett Winkelman, Mike Nelson, and Michael Tveidt. If Kansas fails to guard the three point shot, the Bison will hang in this game longer than you would think. A win would certainly be surprising, but it would not be the biggest upset in tournament history.
7 – Boston College vs 10 – USC
I could talk some about Rakim Sanders, and how he is a dangerous player in the backcourt. I could talk about how Joe Trapani was a really good freshman at Vermont before transferring to Boston College and continuing what figures to be a solid college career. I could talk about how the four sophomores in the starting lineup mean Boston College has a pretty solid future ahead of them. And all of that would be true. Honestly though, it comes down to Tyrese Rice. If Boston College does anything in the tournament it will be because Rice is awesome. You might look at their schedule and wonder how they lost to teams like St. Louis and Harvard. Rice did not play well in those games. Boston College does not play well enough on the defensive end of the floor to overcome a bad game from Rice.
USC is going to get a ton of minutes out of Taj Gibson, Dwight Lewis, DeMar DeRozan, and Daniel Hackett. After those four they will mix and match with that final spot in the lineup. There is talent in that big four, but this is still not a very good offensive team. They do not have very good shooters and they do not take good care of the ball. I would have a hard time putting a lot of faith in this USC team because for much of the year they simply weren’t all that good. However, the guys they have on the floor should be better than the guys Boston College will put on the floor (with the big, notable exception of Rice). If they play well, this USC team could escape the first weekend, but I would expect them to probably beat Boston College.
2 – Michigan State vs 15 – Robert Morris
Not surprisingly, Michigan State brings it on the defensive end and on the boards. What separates them from the rest of the Big 10 is that they have scored more than 35 points in every game this year! This Michigan State team is pretty deep. Kalin Lucas had a good year at point guard and Raymar Morgan is an NBA talent (although I think he might be the only one). There are enough questions about this team that I hesitate to have them advance too far in the tournament. What happened against North Carolina (and I get Goran Suton did not play)? What happened against Maryland? What happened against Purdue? None of those losses are all that bad, except the margin of victory for their opponents was a shocking 23.7 points. But, what happened at home against Northwestern and Penn State? I have a hard time seeing a deep run from this team. In fact, a second round loss would not be shocking.
A loss in the first round certainly would be shocking. It would be fun to see Jeremy Chappell and Jimmy Langhurst knock down a ton of threes and keep them in the game, and I suppose that is even possible for a brief period of time. Even if they are able to find a way to get some open shots, they are going to get killed in rebounding. Still, this is a team that lost by 8 at Miami (and trailed by just 2 with 6 minutes to play). There is some talent here, but not enough to put a legit scare into the Spartans.
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