SOUTH REGION
1 – UNC vs 16 – Radford
North Carolina was the overwhelming favorite going into the season and the injury bug has bitten them a little. Their best defender, Marcus Ginyard, got injured and will miss the year. Tyler Hansbrough missed four of the first eight games. Now Ty Lawson missed the ACC Tournament with an injury. I consider this pretty simple; if Lawson is healthy and 100%, this is the best team in the tournament. The scoring options in the starting lineup are frightening. They can score inside, via penetration, and from the outside jumper. There is not a weak link offensively, but defensively is another issue. They are not horrible defensively, but it is definitely the weakness. If Lawson isn’t 100% the team is not nearly the same, but I am assuming he will be pretty good and they are the favorites.
That means Radford stands no chance, obviously. The only story here will be Artsiom Parakhouski. He is a big guy and averaging about 16 and 11. It will be fun to see if he matches up with Hansbrough at all. On the outside Kenny Thomas is a capable scorer, but this team is woefully overmatched.
8 – LSU vs 9 – Butler
LSU is an athletic team led by Marcus Thornton and Tasmin Mitchell. They are a couple of athletes that Butler will have all kinds of trouble matching up with. Combined they average about 37 points and 13 rebounds, so they will clearly be critical to LSU’s chances. LSU is not a particularly big team as their tallest player is the rail thin Chris Johnson. They could be given some trouble by a good big man. LSU is legitimately the best team in the SEC, for whatever that’s worth (hint: it’s worth nothing).
Matt Howard is not a huge big guy, but he’s plenty talented to hurt LSU inside. The LSU athleticism will definitely give Butler problems, but Butler is probably better in the half court. Brad Stevens has done a remarkable job with this really young team; Butler starts three freshmen, a sophomore and a junior. For as much as Butler is a team that always seems to be here in March, that is not necessarily true for this particular group of Bulldogs. Perhaps some of that youth is an explanation that Butler is just 4-3 in their last seven games (with a couple close calls amongst the wins). I expect LSU to win this game, but neither team can challenge North Carolina.
5 – Illinois vs 12 – Western Kentucky
Illinois has four players averaging 10 points per game (yes, I’m rounding Trent Meacham’s 9.6 up), which is pretty incredible when they only average 35 points per game as a team. Jokes aside, Illinois is pretty bad on the offensive end. They do, however, play good defense (4th in the country by Pomeroy’s rankings). Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale provide good height in the post and Demetri McCarney and Meacham are pretty good guards. They will miss Chester Frazier’s defense and they will need to find someone else to play his 33 minutes. That is especially troubling for a team that does not play a very deep bench. They are going to get tripped up sometime early in the tournament because they simply struggle to score.
I figure Western Kentucky will be that team to trip them up. This is obviously a different Western Kentucky team than last year as Courtney Lee is with the Orlando Magic and Tyrone Brazelton is gone. Still, their backcourt is fantastic. Orlando Mendez-Valdez was the Sun Belt POY as he has taken his game up a level with the increased minutes. You could still argue that he is not their best guard, however, as A.J. Slaughter is excellent. It will be critical for them to avoid foul trouble as they really only go 7 deep (but probably prefer to go just 6 deep). Western Kentucky is going to be horribly outsized in the post, but their perimeter play should be enough to pull the upset. If Frazier were healthy it would be questionable as to whether he would take Slaughter or Mendez-Valdez. Without Frazier I don’t know who takes either.
4 – Gonzaga vs 13 – Akron
Gonzaga’s top six players are very good, but they do not like to go beyond those six. Still, those six are all dangerous and all average at least 9.2 point per game. Micah Downs and Austin Daye both present big match-up problems. The key will probably be Josh Heytvelt (insert your favorite mushrooms joke anytime here) as he, and Daye to a lesser extent, need to stay out of foul trouble because Gonzaga has no size behind them. If Gonzaga plays well and uses their great balance to get everyone involved they are a really tough team to defend. This is a team physically capable of making a run.
Akron is probably not going to score a ton of points, so they are going to need to rely on a pretty decent defense. They are actually lead in scoring by Brett McKnight, who comes off the bench. In the starting lineup Nate Linhart is a good defensive player that averages 10.3 points per game and Brett McKnight’s brother Chris is also a capable scorer. A critical flaw in this Akron team is the fact that their point guard, Humpty Hitchens, has more turnovers than assists on the year. That is also a big red flag, but so is the overall lack of size. If Gonzaga focuses on getting into the post, Akron is going to have a tough time doing anything about it.
6 – Arizona State vs 11 – Temple
Arizona State has a really good starting five. James Harden is obviously one of the best players in college basketball. I never quite understand how he scores so often considering he might as well play with his right hand tied behind his back at times, but the guy is incredible. On the inside Jeff Pendergraph plays very well and has some explosive athleticism. Point guard Derek Glasser and Rihards Kuksiks are both excellent three point shooters. Ty Abbott has a place on the roster, but that place is not the offensive end. Arizona State might as well put Abbott in a lawn chair in the corner on offense, but the rest of the Sun Devils score well enough that they would be OK with that. Any time you have a player as good as Harden you have the possibility of making a pretty good run.
What Temple does will be largely dependent on what star guard Dionte Christmas does. He is a fully capable scorer, but he has been less efficient in his senior year than he was his sophomore and junior years. He is going to need to make the most of his scoring opportunities to keep up with an excellent Arizona State scoring attack. Temple’s second best player is the 6-9 Lavoy Allen. He is their second best scorer and the team’s best rebounder. Sergio Olmos may be a 7-footer starting for Temple, but he is still unlikely to grab as many boards as Allen. There is not a lot of depth on this Temple team and for them to advance they will need someone to help Christmas on the offensive end. Allen is a candidate for that, as is Ryan Brooks. Brooks is the player you need to watch most closely from three-point range. I am not expecting Temple to beat Arizona State, but if Christmas plays well that would change everything. He could single-handedly push Temple past Arizona State if he plays well.
3 – Syracuse vs 14 – Stephen F. Austin
All year Syracuse has not been as good as they were in the Big East Tournament. So, what should we expect? Should we expect that Syracuse team or the still very good Syracuse team that played the rest of the year? I would expect regression. Frankly, looking at the roster it is a mystery they are not better than they are. Jonny Flynn is one of my favorite point guards in the country. Eric Devendorf is extremely dangerous, especially if you are a female’s face. Paul Harris, Andy Rautins, and Arinze Onuaku are also capable scorers. Those five, plus Rick Jackson, are really all the guys Jim Boeheim wants to play. Syracuse has the talent to beat probably anyone in the country; last week proved that. However, I don’t trust them on a consistent basis and a first weekend loss would not be surprising.
Stephen F. Austin is a terrible offensive team, but they play good defense and will try to slow down Syracuse and force them to take bad jump shots. They are capable of doing that for a little bit. Ultimately, their inability to score will catch up with them. They do have two guys that will try to put up some points. Last year guard Josh Alexander was the Southland POY and he can shoot from outside and he is capable of getting to the line as well. Over the course of his career his three point percentage has continued to fall from 48% as a freshman, to 44%, to 41% and this year to a still respectable 35%. Whereas last year Alexander was the conference POY, this year his teammate in the post, Matt Kingsley, took home the honor. Averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds a game, Kingsley could pose some problems to the Syracuse frontline, perhaps even getting Onuaku in foul trouble. Alexander and Kingsley will probably play well for stretches, but they will not have enough help to scare Syracuse.
7 – Clemson vs 10 – Michigan
Clemson is a pretty good offensive team. Trevor Booker is a load inside and averaged about 15 point and 10 rebounds. Terrence Oglesby is a fantastic shooter that does virtually nothing else. K.C. Rivers can score and he is a pretty good rebounder from the wing, but he is not a terribly efficient scorer. Demontez Stitt is a quick point guard that is solid as long as he avoids trying to shoot the ball. Clemson likes to pressure full court but they are not a great defensive team. This was a typical Clemson year where they started 16-0 before finishing the year 7-8. This is not a team playing very good basketball and it would not be surprising to see their season end before the weekend starts.
That would be good news for Michigan. Of all the Big 10 bubble teams, Michigan had the best pair of wins as they beat UCLA and Duke. I really like Michigan in this game, not only because Clemson is playing so poorly, but also because I absolutely trust John Beilein in the NCAA Tournament. His offense creates good looks from three-point range and the 1-3-1 defense tends to give fits to teams without much prep time. Offensively Manny Harris is the key guy. He is not a particularly good shooter (which someone needs to tell him; he shoots deep shots far too often for his ability level) but he does an excellent job of getting to the foul line. DeShawn Sims is Harris’s running mate and he is fully capable of scoring and is a good rebounder as well. Sims, like Harris, also shoots far too often from the outside. To make a run Michigan will need to be hitting their outside shots, because they take a ton of them. Guys like Laval Lucas-Perry, Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, and Kelvin Grady are going to need to be knocking down their jumpers. I actually trust that that could happen.
2 – Oklahoma vs 15 – Morgan State
I am going to try to prevent this from becoming a love letter to Blake Griffin, but it is going to be tough. He is completely ridiculous. His numbers are insanely good. He scores about 22 points per game with an incredible 1.70 points per shot thanks to his 63.5% field goal percentage. Imagine if he could hit free throws! That is pretty much the lone weakness in Griffin’s game. He is an absurd rebounder. Somehow, even with Griffin on the team, there are more numbers to go around. Willie Warren had a very good freshman year. I might argue that Warren should grab more rebounds, but considering Griffin, and his brother Taylor, average over 20 rebounds a game combined, I am not sure there are any more rebounds to go around. The Griffins just grab them all. Tony Crocker is a pretty good three-point shooter and Austin Johnson has done a pretty good job at the point guard position for this Oklahoma team. Oklahoma has the best player in this field. The only concern I have is whether the rest of his team is good enough to consistently get him the ball. If they play a team with a tough to figure out defense that could frustrate their guards and a unique offense that opens up the floor for three-point shooters, Oklahoma might end up going home earlier than they would like (and maybe earlier than I would like, because I really like watching Blake Griffin; maybe I’ll get to see him play for my Bulls next year).
You could point out that Morgan State was able to win at Maryland. That’s true. However, that would be neglecting to mention that at times Maryland is absolutely horrible. Reggie Holmes is an OK scorer, but he falls in love with the three point shot more than he should. His teammates are going to have to try to find a way to help him score, because it is unclear if he can do it himself and he is definitely not going to help his teammates score as he averages a whopping 0.5 assists per game. Somehow Marquise Kately, Kevin Thompson, and Rodney Stokes are going to have to find a way to control the Griffins on the boards. I don’t know how that would happen.
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